It is just one day from the extended deadline for Israel to withdraw its military from Lebanon. Israel is preparing to do something presented as withdrawal but which would more correctly be presented as continuing to occupy Lebanese soil.
Israeli officials suggest they’re going to withdraw from the towns and villages they currently occupy and in which they’ve carried out systematic demolition of civilian homes for months. They are being very clear that they’ll continue to hold five hilltop surveillance posts inside Lebanon though, and troops will remain there despite what is being broadly called a “full withdrawal.”
Israeli military spokesperson Nadav Shoshani says that the US has approved this idea as a “temporary measure.” However, as no end date is specified, how temporary this actually might be remains entirely unknown.
Other unknown aspects of a continued occupation include, particularly, how Hezbollah will react. They expressed impatience at Israel remaining for weeks now but didn’t attack occupation forces during the ceasefire. They did, however, press the new Lebanese government to ensure Israel comply with the withdrawal deadline, and now that it’s clear Israel plainly will not do so, there’s going to be pressure within Hezbollah to do something.
Also unclear is whether Israel will change its policy of shooting civilians trying to return home to southern Lebanon. Israeli troops shot and killed dozens of people trying to go home during the ceasefire, and while they said the ban on returning remains “indefinitely,” they have not said anything new in recent days.
An Israeli drone attacked and killed a Hamas member in the southern Lebanese city of Sidon today as well. This raises the question of whether or not, post-ceasefire, Israel will make fewer attacks on Lebanon. The attack on Sidon almost certainly violated the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and might well violate the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza as well. It’s merely one of many violations though, as Israel has committed hundreds of violations in Lebanon since the ceasefire went into effect in late November.
Adding to concerns about the post-ceasefire but not post-occupation border, Israel is reportedly going to triple the number of troops on the border with Lebanon. While some military buildup may be seen as an attempt to convince displaced Israelis it is safe to return north, the inevitable concern is that this is really a stopgap before the next Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
