With Turkey focused on long-term goals in Syria that involve continuing to oppose Kurdish autonomy in the northeast, there are growing numbers of reports from Turkish officials that plans are being considered to establish new military bases inside Syrian territory.
Details are still emerging on what this might look like, and thousands of Turkish soldiers are already reported to be operating on Syrian soil, mostly targeting the Kurdish SDF. Turkey has recently threatened invasion if the new Islamist government of Syria doesn’t eliminate the SDF.
The Islamists, the al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has given multiple statements rejecting the idea of Kurdish autonomy. Turkish FM Hakan Fidan says the new HTS ruler of Syria is taking a firm stance against Kurdish “terrorists.”
That the HTS is largely giving Turkey whatever they want with respect to Kurdish territory doesn’t necessarily mean Turkey won’t seek to increase its presence in the country. The Turkish Defense Ministry, however, has denied any specific plans for bases at this time, suggesting talk of new bases may be premature.
In the meantime, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) continues to attack SDF territory, and Turkish warplanes and drones are attacking Kurdish towns and cities. In the Raqqa Governorate, almost exclusively SDF territory, activists are increasingly critical of Turkish aggression.
Fighting on the ground with the SNA is still mostly further west than Raqqa, in the Aleppo Governorate. In recent weeks, the focus has been on trying to take the Tishreen Dam, and Kurdish protesters have been rally at the dam calling for international intervention to prevent the Turkish destruction of it. Tishreen Dam is a key source of fresh water and electricity for northeastern Syria.
Turkey has carried out multiple airstrikes against Tishreen Dam and targeted the protesters rallying there. It targeted those protesters again on Thursday, injuring an unknown number of them.
Now that Assad is gone… Is Syria any better off than before…?! Are those who wanted Assad gone regret their wishes…?!
It’s like when the bouncer of a famous club is knocked out and thrown out, the patrons now can grope and drink as much as they want.
It can get messy if the bartender is the spare bouncer…!
It’s like when the bouncer of a famous club is knocked out and thrown out, the patrons now can grope and drink as much as they want.
Be careful what you wish for… You just might get it…!
By the time Turkey and Israel are done, Syria will be a small sliver like Lebanon.
I do not see it this way. Turkey has several virltal interests in Syria. Keeping everyone out that is threatening Turkey with geoplotical stragulation and separatiin from Gulf. ISIS or Kurds – same danger. Entities under US control plan to remain the gatekeeper between Levant/Anatolia and Mesopotamia + Arabian Gulf stares.
To that end, US supports Kurdish factions that signed up to US agenda (notvall Kurds do).
Turkey must create stable states around it — to prevent Israel’s expansion, and US undermining Turkey’s security by physically eliminating borders between Syrian, Turkish and Iraqi Kurdistan.
Israel and US have already shaken up four states —-Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Egypt. Lebanon and Syria — physically, Jordan and Egypt financially. Both Jordan and Egypt are theeatened with millions of refugees.
Turkey itself is burdened by millions of refuges. Before, in the aftermath of US invasion of Iraq, millions of Iraqis undermined Syria causing chaos in 2012.
Turkey will be supported financially and militarily in this effiort by many actors accross Eurasia and Gulf.
Assad’s leaving was the result of Syrian elite clans agreeing witn Russia, Turkey and Iran that status quo was not sustainable given Israel/US new directiins in ME. Syrian Army and Government stood down, HTS — the weakest player — waltzed in without resistance.
At present what we see is US attempt to shore up Joulani, while Israel advances.
HTS has about 15,000 fighers from varios groups. Most not Syrian. Many have disappeared into looting and smuggling. Joulani must have by now sscks of cash to buy influence. First aim seems to be buying Syrian tribes fighting Kurds in Raqqa province. To supposedly fight together. I predict will not work — but you never know. Magic of money is often irresistible,
We know that Turkey has over 100,000 Syrians under arms (SNA). We know Syrian regular army to be about 275,000. No information yet as to its status.
Turkish media had Turkish foreign miister announce plans by Turkey, Iraq and Jordan, as well as Syria’s forces (not nentioning HTS) to replace Kurdish SDF as Syria’s protwctor from ISIS.
They know that Saudis stopped funding ISIS after June 2017, and any ISIS sughting these days are some free- lance mercenaries paid by someone. The proposal is to take over ISIS jail kept by Kurds where many children remain that came into prison as babies.
Worth follow up. The challenge to US is to justify paying Kurdish forces to occupy Arab land all in the name of protecting against ISIS. Which of course is a lie — as following the fall of Assad government SDF occupied government held Palmyra. No ISIS there.
For this plan to work — Turkey will have to set up bases. And the real issue will be — who will the Syrian Army join — Turish led SNA or HTS?
As of now chances are slim for HTS prevailing. Unless audacious Israel puts its weight behind Joulani, and takes over bigger part of Syris beford Turkey resolves anciliary issues. Dangerous, but possible.
Reading this carefully yields a lots of information.
First that pops to mind is Raqqa Governorate. Raqqa capital, once ISIS last stand in Syria. It fell 2018 about a year later than Mosul that fell in the fall of 2017 to US backed SDF (Kurds). Raqqa Governorate has always been Syrian Arab majority, with Kurdish population under 5%. Ever since SDF occupied Raqqa, Arab clans have been protesting occupation, property expropriation by Kurds, arbitrary arrests under “ISIS” charge, and the control of education system, intriduction if Kurdish language in schools, etc. Those protests were barely reported over years, but fir those who read carefully – enough information came through. ISIS remained the cover for SDF occupation of Arab majority areas stretching well beyond Raqqa into Deir Azzor, all those regions have undet 1% Kurdish population.
Turkey wannts to work with Arab clans to push Kurds out of non-Kurdish areas. So far so good.
But HTS is getting into picture. Joulani announced that HTS will work with those clans to remove Kurds. Anyone over fifth grade gets it. Sacks of cash thst cone usually with visitors from US and EU are now available to buy the leaders of those clans to accept HTS rule, not Syrian Army founded and commanded by Turks.
This would insure US control of areas across Euphrates. And keep Turkey backed Syrian military out. It will not work. Thise clans are suspicious of anything US favored. And Joulani and his collection of mikitants are mostly NON-SYRIANS. Joulani is an Iraqi.
Everytime one cones accross word “activists” — read carefully. This is 100% messaging from US. USAID types, telling you what to be “concerned” about.
I remember when Mosul fell, many “activists” could not hold their excitement back how ISIS left Mosul towards Raqqa. Almost cheerleading.
Yet, as the palace coup took place in Syria — all “activists” were in unison against the young usurper, King’s son. He was briught to power by the decision of clans that the reignning Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Najaf — who founded and funded Khalufate plan advanced by US. His “Syria Committe” was implementing a new project to unite Sunnis from North Iraq and South Syria. To be managed by Saudis. A state that was to oermanently separate Levant and Anatolia from the Gulf.
Once Russian intervention in Syria stopped ISiS advance into Syria — it became clear to US that ISIS project was not working. Rather than to give credit to Rusia and Turkey for beating back ISIs — US awitched to supportibg Kurdish YPG, remamed “Syrian” Democratic Forces.
Trump moreover, told Soudi Crown Prince Najaf that US intends to fight ISIS, ending Ibama’s deceptive “killing of ISIS leaders”. Once Russia bombed convkys of oil Isis smuggled to Turkish Kurds in exchange for volunteer smuggling snd weapins.