US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein offered a “guarantee” over the weekend that Israel would fully withdraw from Lebanon by the 60-day ceasefire deadline. The official US maintains this is still the plan, and with just 10 days left in that ceasefire, Maj. Gen. Jasper Jeffers, the Chairman of the US-run body meant to oversee the ceasefire, claimed the pullout was “on a very positive path.”
The reality on the ground seems quite different, with the Lebanese National News Agency reporting that Israeli ground troops have conducted new incursions into multiple southern towns, including Taybeh and Maroun al-Ras.
Israel first invaded Taybeh two weeks ago, burning a number of civilian homes and then “withdrawing.” Today the troops and bulldozers returned, firing machine guns in multiple residential neighborhoods and bringing bulldozers in, ready to “carry out excavation work.”
In Maroun al-Ras, Israeli soldiers blew up a gate in front of a house, and fired machine guns into a number of homes. Israel has not commented officially on why or what these operations are for, but they plainly violate the ceasefire.
Major General Jeffers, overseer of the ceasefire’s status, has not commented on any of the hundreds of Israeli violations. Instead, he praised Israel for departing from a handful of villages, omitting the fact that Israel nearly destroyed them before leaving.
All this raises further questions about whether Israel will actually complete its withdrawal by the deadline. Israel has only fully withdrawn from two Lebanese villages according to current reports and still has troops in roughly 60 others. That’s after 50 days of ceasefire, and with just 10 days left, the odds of total withdrawal in such a short time aren’t good.
Analyst Randa Slim from Johns Hopkins Foreign Policy Institute was quoted as saying the “chances are high” that Israeli ground forces “will eventually withdraw.” This accords with many others who are predicting that Israel will ultimately insist it needs more time.
What will happen after January 26 is anyone’s guess. Hezbollah officials have been warning their patience won’t last if Israel remains after the deadline, and Israeli officials have been talking about ditching the ceasefire. As Israel has been violating the ceasefire multiple times daily, it’s not clear what abandoning the ceasefire would actually mean. The next 10 days will be tense, and Israeli offensives will probably not stop.
