With just a few weeks left in the 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, it seems increasingly that not only will the war resume after that, but the ceasefire may not last, even in pretense, for the whole 60 days.
Israel continues to commit dozens of violations daily, attacking southern Lebanon and invading new towns that they hadn’t occupied during the war itself. Maroun al-Ras and Burj al-Mukuk were the latest areas to be taken by Israeli troops.
Ironically, Israeli DM Israel Katz is claiming that the main ceasefire threat is Hezbollah not fulfilling requirements, and that “Israel will be forced to act.” Since they keep attacking targets in Lebanon throughout the ceasefire, it’s not clear what this would actually change, beyond rhetoric.
It’s increasingly likely that Israel won’t leave Lebanon within the 60 days, and indeed it is being reported Israel intends to inform the US of its intentions to stay in Lebanon past the deadline. They also will inform the US that they’ve decided that Lebanese civilians cannot be allowed to return to the border villages. Israel has been demolishing towns and villages in the border area, and has warned civilians to stay out.
Israel’s violations of the ceasefire have persisted throughout. Within just hours of the ceasefire taking effect, Israeli troops were shooting at Lebanese journalists in Khiam. The violations are larger and more flagrant these days, however.
The UNIFIL peacekeepers have issued a statement slamming Israel for a “flagrant” violations of the ceasefire this weekend, noting that Israeli military bulldozers demolished UN property, including a UNIFIL observation post and one of the barrels near Labbouneh. The barrels were put out specifically to mark the line across which Israel is supposed to withdraw its forces by 60 days.
That withdrawal seems like it’s not going to happen at any rate, but demolishing the barrels seems a bit more obvious a step in that direction than most of what Israel has done, which they’ve couched as reactions to civilians “violating” the ceasefire by trying to return to their homes.
Last week, Hezbollah said its intentions were to remain “patient” and not react to Israel’s violations during the ceasefire, warning that troops that don’t leave by the 60-day deadline would be treated as an occupying force.
Hezbollah figure Naim Qassem is now warning that their patience may not last a full 60 days and continued Israeli violations may lead to Hezbollah reacting to Israel soon.
