Now 35 days into a 60-day ceasefire, Israeli troops remain inside Lebanese territory and are increasingly open about staying indefinitely. Given the several hundred Israeli ceasefire violations and scores of Lebanese casualties, however, the real story may be Hezbollah’s lack of response.
Hezbollah has not aggressively retaliated to any Israeli attacks on either Hezbollah itself or on Lebanese civilians. Hezbollah political official Mahmoud Qamati says the group is being “patient,” but that on day 61 of the 60-day ceasefire, any Israeli troops still inside Lebanon will be considered to be “occupation forces.”
This seems particularly important because day 61 is fast approaching, and despite Israeli claims of victory, Hezbollah insists the organization remains operationally intact. While in many ways the war never really ended in southern Lebanon, full-bore fighting could quickly return.
Israel’s avowed intention to remain in Lebanon through the ceasefire clearly indicates Tel Aviv has its eye on returning to fighting, above and beyond the hundreds of violations it’s already committed. Israeli military officials are emphasizing their continued military control of strategic areas in southern Lebanon, which they believe will give them the advantage if and when all-out fighting resumes.
Israel further issued a new statement today announcing a line across southern Lebanon beyond which civilians still cannot return home, “until further notice.” This includes much of the territory Israel occupied during the war, but so far does not include all the towns Israeli forces have invaded and occupied since the ceasefire began, which are deeper into Lebanese territory.
The effort to keep civilians from returning home appears two-fold. It both allows Israel to claim “violations” by Lebanon because many civilians don’t have a choice and are desperately trying to return home, and also because Israel has been carrying out mass demolitions of homes in the towns and villages closest to the border. By the time Israel lifts the ban on civilians returning home, their homes probably won’t exist.
While Israel has some political interest in its own civilians returning to northern Israeli towns, by and large the displaced are staying away, anticipating a resumption of violence. There is reportedly a plan for the Israeli government to pay its displaced thousands of dollars to return home. That plan may not go into effect as discussed, however, if the war does, indeed, resume within weeks.
