Though it has reportedly been extended until the end of the week, the failure to make the ceasefire between Turkish-backed forces and the US-backed Kurdish SDF permanent is expected to lead to more fighting. It is starting to look like the fight for northern Syria could be much bigger than anyone expected, as Turkey is massing troops along the border.
Turkish forces have been building up on the border area near Kobani in recent days and are now reported to be strategically positioned at several sites along the Syrian border. Turkey is said to want a 30 km (about 18.5 miles) buffer zone across their entire southern border with Syria, and with help from its allies, the Syrian National Army (SNA), it may be close to achieving that goal. It might not stop there though.
US officials are suggesting that a “massive” incursion is likely from Turkey, and is probably imminent judging by positioning of its troops. The target is presumably Syria’s northeast, held by US-backed Kurdish forces from the SDF.
This isn’t a surprise, as Turkey has long been hostile to the SDF. Indeed, over the weekend Turkish FM Hakan Fidan said that Turkey has a strategic goal of the “elimination” of the Kurdish YPG. The YPG is the largest body making up the SDF.
Turkey has a history of launching incursions into Syria to try to tamp down Kurdish ambitions to set up an autonomous region in the northeast. US officials likened the current buildup to the Turkish invasion in 2019 against the SDF. Signs are that this is an even larger buildup.
The timing is also noteworthy. Turkey has just put a great deal of effort into the regime change in Syria, which led to the installation of the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as the new government. Turkey has been backing HTS, and HTS officials have been talking about the need to eliminate the separatist impulses of the Kurdish factions in the northeast.
Since the regime change, fighting over territory in Syria has been growing. Israel has seized areas in the southwest, and it seems likely Turkey is hoping to take advantage of the instability to gain deeper control over the Kurdish part of Syria, which Kurdish officials call Rojava.
The US interest in Rojava is officially that the SDF is fighting against ISIS remnant forces. However, that interest also hinges on US-friendly factions controlling Syria’s oil and gas regions. President-elect Donald Trump ditched support for the SDF the last time Turkey launched a substantial incursion in 2019, and with him returning to power in just a few weeks, Turkey likely sees US backing of the Kurds as doubtful.
A full invasion of northern Syria risks further destabilizing the country, and indeed the region. But as Turkey’s interests in Syria have always been primarily about weakening the Kurdish forces, in the end, this invasion may be more centered on that than on whatever happens in the rest of Syria.
This is extremely bad: Erdogan will probably try to get this finished before Trump is officially in charge, so he's presented with the fait accomplí of NSF,Rojava, not existing anymore by that time. Trump himself may be in agreement anyhow, all what's been happening has been agreed by several powers and it clearly implies giving all Syria to Turkey as vassal.
One has to wonder if Syria will be a nation in the next few years. It may just get split up.
Erdogan began all this as a strong voice against Israel, who said a lot but did nothing.
By the time Erdogan is done with invading and betraying, there is likely to be a Turkish Army confronting Israel, and a land bridge covered by a NATO state connecting Iran to the Russian bases and then to Lebanon. That might be what he does to fulfill his words.
This may be Hitler and Stalin dividing Poland, but remember they then betrayed each other too. It does not matter what the proxy force rebels squeezed now in the middle have to say about this. What matters is where Erdogan is when he makes his final betrayal.
Note that both Russia and Iran are saying little, except that it is all going to work out, and saying nothing bad about Erdogan.
I'm so glad I saw your post before I decided to post something stupid like, see you later in Hell my Syrian Kurd!sh friends who decided to be US proxies against your own country.
Kurds got what they deserve. They’ve been betrayed in the past even with the Ottoman and never learn!.
What is your problem with the Kurds?
Why do you care?
"By the time Erdogan is done with invading and betraying…" sounds like great lyrics for a Bob Dylan song.
That fantasy will never happen. Turkey will never confront anyone with equal firepower. Like the Israeli, they only go for the kill when the country can’t fight back.
An embarrassment of riches ? Turkey has the army to take on a goodly number of potential foes but maybe they hesitate to risk any of their military or economic assets in actual warfare ?
That is correct. Because Turkey learned that why enslave the region with military conquest when you can with energy.
1948, 1967 and 1973 wars refute your claim about Israel not taking on any with equal firepower.
Timber don’t change the topic. This is fictional fight is between Israel and Turkey. And this will never happen. Ever. All the other years you mentioned were not even close to be being equal. Israel even then had the backing of the west.
It begins to look like the HTS are useful idiots in all this – handy to push out Assad but soon to find themselves outgunned by a Turkish conquest from the north, an ASI conquest from the south, and Kurds & whey trying to scramble in from the east.
Perhaps it IS Assad, RF, IRI's intention to let NATO Turkey and America's darling ASI clash directly over the partition of the late country of Syria. All while each player still in the game is allied with one faction & hated enemy of another in a crisscrossing web.
Assad was kick out of power and his supporters are being hunted down. And you think that was plan?
We’ve seen that for the low-low cost of three skyscrapers and a vacant section of the Pentagon, a State can invade two targets-of-opportunity and shred its Constitution.
Lose some old-model ships in a “sneak attack” and you have justification for a war against Imperial Japan you’d been striving for.
Wait 18+ months after a luxury liner carrying weapons is sunk in the North Atlantic after the Kaiser’s Germany warned it’d do exactly that, and you have justification to enter the Great War on its down-slope.
Sometimes all you need for the story to proceed the way you want, is for juuuust the right Inciting Incident.
”Freedom’s just another word, for nothing left to lose!”
Syria will be to WW3 what Czechoslovakia was to WW2.
Unlikely.
Which, the fate of Syria or our own?
There are still many misconceptions flying about. One that Turkey supported and funded HTS. Superficially, it is easy to conflate Idlib and HTS. A big mistake. HTS is one of the contributirs of refugee crisis in Turkey, as many people fled once militants of many stripes were concentrated in Idlib.
Not to digress too much into complicsted Syrisn/Ottoman legacy, Assad’s choice of Idlib for relocating various defeated militant and Islamist groups ((which we lovingly call “opposition”) — was deliberately provocative to Turkey. It is next to former Syrian Christian provinnce of Antioch that is now part of Turkey. Sure enough, Idlib residents fled to Turkey. Those were the good old days of local Levant feuds.
But Syria was catapulted from its provincial concerns into global intrigue, while still in their post-Ottoman mind set. The artificialy created ISIS that nearly toppled Syria finally concentrated the minds in Damascus, and they invited Russia. Of course Russia knew the progenitors of ISIS, and knew that the goal is larger — radicalizing all Islamic communities throught Russia, Central Asia and beyond to Uyghurs.
So, while Russia had a skin in the game, Syria upon being saved from ISIS, continued its natural tendency to inward political focus, aided greatly by sanctions. Acceptance into Arab League and Organization of Islamic states, was an effort to reintegrate Syria. But US/EU wanted Syria isolated and under constant threat by secessionist Kurds and Westernized and cleaned up HTS.
In Idlib, Turkey contained HTS through support of local population and local governments. Turkey peeled off many former militants chafing under HTS control of food and foreign aid. Once militants joined Turkish-funded forces they had to give up their leaders, and accept Turkish commanders. . HTS was angry at defections, and on more than one occassion called in US airforce against defecting factions — labeled “Al-Qaeda” for the occassion.
Erdogan did not go to Kazan for tourism. Very likely fate of Syria was decided back in October. Syrian Army was to stand down. And Assad leave the country.
The man now in charge of the interim givernment — Mohammed Al-Bashir — was in Idlib government. In March there were massive protests against HTS in Idlib. He was the man who freed up all detained protestors. I believe he is Turkish ally, as is Idlib as a whole.
HTS — being wholly funded and armed Western outfit — has limited numbers, including some of the most vicious fanatics like Al-Zinke group. They all according to Wikipedia number 15,000, now claimed 30,000. Either way, a small number.
HTS move into Aleppo area was expected. But nobody expected that Syrian Army of 275,000 would largely stand down and let them roll into Damascus. While its commander Joulani, newly outfitted in Zelenski style shirt, was the toast of CNN, things started moving swiftly.
First Israel moved into Syrian Golan Heights, and Turkey went after Kurds in Manbij.
This is speculation, but I believe is close to truth: Syrian forces under Turkish control are busy coordinating with Assad forces. Turkey’s recruitment of Syrian forces — now named Syrian National Army — amounts to about 100,000 according to Wikipedia.
Since Syrian Army cannot pissibly become appendix to 15,000 Western outfit HTS, it is logical that it will become ally of Turkey. They need money, arms, international sponsorship and strategic focus. All of that Turkey can secure. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Gulf in general are good for money, many others supply everything else,
And what is the strategic focus? . Turkey sees the events starting from Gaza, and on to Lebanon, along with HTS move — as an EXISTENTIAL threat to Turkey.
HTS planned move into Syria was meant to destabilize Syria, and along with Kurds — both are fully funded Western enterprise. All in all — Syria was facing destabilization, with Israel being the key beneficiary
— and the whole mess landing on Turkeys doorstep. With West (and Israel) ALREADY bankrolling Kurds in Turkey — handwriting was on the wall.
Yes, Turkey is consolidating forces in Syria for the purpose of checking Israel. That would require having Syrian armed forces under its control — no matter who sits in President’s seat in Damascus.
When HTS waltzed into Syria with its 15,000 people, one has to remember that the only time one enters something unexpectedly easy— is when walking into a trap.
As for Turkey, let us consider. Russia is building out Turkish nuclear power plant, Alibaba invested 2 billion into Turkey, and Chinese BYD is investing 1 billion into car manufacturing plant. Russian tourists in millions annually come to Turkey, Turkey’s vegetable exports to Russia are big money makers, while Turkish construction firns make big business in Russia and Central Asia. Turkey is becming energy hub. And with BRICS New Development Bank, fears of any currency fluctuations and short term liquidity problems resulting in dependence on Western institutions such as IMF — are gone.
Solving Syrian refugee crisiis is a big political issue that pro-NATO Republican Party in Turkey used against Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party. Checking the Kurdish statehood ambitions in Syria and confrontation with Israel — all explosive issues in Turkey.
Erdogan is a cat with many lives. But the new life granted to him after attemoted assasination and a coup in 2016, changed Turkey to where it is today. But Turkey did not into this quagmire without counting on powerful support.
Before Trump gets into office all the fuses will be lit. It is possible this is with his tacit approval. After all, presidents like foreign policy problems as they divert from thorny domestic economic issues.
But fist things first. Annexing Canada.
"But fist things first. Annexing Canada." LOL. Clearly a fan of the movie Canadian Bacon.