Several nations have been loudly cheering the weekend regime change in Syria (some are even taking credit for it). But despite the Islamist faction they were backing ending up taking Damascus, neither the US, Turkey, nor Israel are actually stopping attacks on Syrian territory. If anything, they are increasing strikes.
The US, Turkey and Israel all carried out airstrikes inside their respective spheres of influence in Syria after the regime change was announced. None of them indicated that these are to be seen as one-off strikes or a special situation. Rather, it appears to be the new normal, which looks suspiciously like the old normal.
On Sunday, Israel was carrying out major airstrikes across Syria, and also sent ground troops into the country to seize more of the Golan Heights. They insisted the new territory was a “buffer zone,” and have couched the airstrikes as targeting Syria’s military assets.
New Israeli airstrikes were reported Monday against military depots in Ain Maneen village and the city of al-Qarah. Though Israel said the new territory seized was a “temporary measure,” they indicated that the airstrikes against sites across Syria would continue.
The US carried out multiple airstrikes across central Syria, saying they targeted “known ISIS camps.” They said they wanted to prevent the Islamists from taking advantage of the Syria takeover by a separate Islamist faction. They have, however, been trying to get the Kurdish SDF to take advantage of the situation since last week, seeking for them to seize more of eastern Syria.
The US hopes that regime change will allow Syrian Kurds to take over even more of the oil-rich northeast. This clashes with Turkey’s ambitions in the region to see the Kurds kept carefully under thumb, even though both were backing the al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in taking over the country.
Turkish drones have been quite active in northern Syria since the fall of Damascus. In the last 24 hours, Turkish drones strikes have killed at least dozens of people, including 15 former soldiers and three members of Syrian Kurds’ security apparatus Asayish. They also killed 11 civilians including six children in the Kurdish region of Syria.
Turkey’s Foreign Minister has met with UN Secretary General António Guterres, and is laying out a “red line” for Syria, saying they don’t want either ISIS or the Kurdish PKK to benefit from the new situation.
Though Turkey mentions the PKK specifically, but historically they’ve been very flexible on the application of that label. The PKK’s sister organization, the YPG, is the main Kurdish force in Syria. The YPG is also the main fighting force and a substantial part of the leadership of the SDF, which the US has been backing for years.
In addition to existing support from the US, the Syrian Kurds are also seeking backing from Israel. The HTS itself isn’t seen as friendly toward the Kurds, and given alliances with the Turkish-backed factions from the northwest they would be even more likely to be hostile.
While many are inclined to view the current situation as post Civil War Syria, the fighting and foreign intervention shows no sign of ending. Indeed, the battle lines are being drawn for yet more confrontations, particularly between the new Islamist regime and the Kurdish factions.
