Media reports are adhering to the idea that the Lebanon ceasefire continues to hold. However, there is an awful lot of firing in southern Lebanon for that to actually be true. Israel began carrying out attacks on Thursday, and those attacks have escalated significantly over the weekend.
Israel first airstrikes were against the tiny border town of Rab El-Thalathin, in Lebanon’s Marjayoun District. The attacks killed at least two people, and wounded two others. These were the first confirmed fatalities since the ceasefire took effect Wednesday.
Israel also attacked a car in Majdal Zoun, in the Tyre District. This attack wounded three, including a seven-year-old child. Another attack in al-Bisariya, near Sidon, wounded another. Israeli drones were also reported flying over the Lebanese capital of Beirut and its southern suburbs, though as of yet Israel hasn’t resumed attacking the Beirut area since Wednesday.
Israel reported it attacked several targets along the Syria-Lebanon border Saturday which were described as Hezbollah smuggling sites. There have been no reports of casualties from there yet, and neither Syria nor Hezbollah has commented.
Indeed, Hezbollah doesn’t seem to be retaliating at all, which is probably why some media outlets believe the ceasefire is “holding.” Obviously, the ceasefire was meant to stop belligerent actions on both sides, and in that regard, it definitely isn’t holding, and seems very tenuous, at best.
Interestingly, Israel has repeatedly claimed ceasefire violations on Hezbollah’s side, despite none of these actually involving firing on anyone or anything. The claims have centered on vehicles traveling in the south, and Israel has reiterated that it forbids Lebanese civilians from returning to their homes in the south.
The US-led international efforts to broker the ceasefire, which began on Wednesday, were meant to see Hezbollah move north of the Litani River within 60 days, and Israel to withdraw from Lebanon. Israel was supposed to report “violations” to a US-led committee, which would in turn forward them to Lebanon’s Army who would take care of it.
However, this appears never to have been Israel’s plan. Israeli commanders say they don’t expect the Lebanese Army to destroy any Hezbollah assets and that they will do it themselves. Israeli sources also suggest Israeli troops might remain in southern Lebanon after the 60-day deadline “under certain conditions.” That would be a big violation of the ceasefire, too, although as the military is already firing on people left and right, that’s probably not an insurmountable factor to Israel.
So far there is no indication that the US is doing anything about maintaining the ceasefire. The US is ultimately not likely to do so as Israel is doing all the firing, although this is likely to further harm US international credibility.
