Israel’s cabinet will meet on Tuesday to vote on a proposed two-month ceasefire which has been brokered by the US. A ceasefire was accepted by Hezbollah and the Lebanese government last week, though it’s not clear if it’s precisely the one Israel is voting on.
The US negotiators are said to believe the deal is reached, though diplomats warn that a number of stumbling blocks potentially remain. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated last night that he would “potentially” approve of the ceasefire.
Israel’s powerful far-right, however, appears overwhelmingly opposed to the idea of a ceasefire. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir in particularly declared the ceasefire a “grave mistake,” and said that Israel would be missing an “historic opportunity” to continue the war and eliminate Hezbollah.
Ben-Gvir has repeatedly opposed any ceasefire in Lebanon or Gaza. He declared that he believes Israel must continue to “absolute victory,” and that it is forbidden to accept a ceasefire when Hezbollah wants one.
Though the exact deal has not been made public, the indications are that it will not actually require Israel to stop firing on targets in Lebanon. The plan, rather, focuses on Israeli ground troops returning to Israel, Hezbollah moving north of the Litani River, and the Lebanese military deploying substantial numbers of troops into southern Lebanon to ensure Hezbollah is not able to return.
Israeli officials have repeatedly said they oppose any deal that would require them to stop attacking Lebanon. They have also recently indicated that they would not accept any French involvement in any deal. That Netanyahu is at least potentially going to support the deal suggests that the ceasefire both excludes the French and precludes any requirements that would stop daily Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon.
Israel has kept escalating the conflict since the most recent ceasefire effort began. This has included targeting of large residential buildings, and areas like central Beirut. This raises questions about whether they are actually taking the prospect of a ceasefire seriously.
