Russian forces are pushing to encircle Avdiivka, a city in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast that’s about three miles north of the provincial capital, as fighting continues to rage along the entire front.
The Washington Post reported on Saturday that Russian forces had advanced to the north of Avdiivka in recent days. According to SouthFront, which publishes daily maps of the battlefield situation in Ukraine, Russian forces are also making advances to the south of the city.
Avdiivka had a pre-war population of 32,000, which has shrunk to just over 1,000. According to the Post, the remaining residents in Avdiivka are living underground and reliant on aid. The city is about three miles north of the Donetsk capital, which Russian forces will be in a better position to capture if they take Avdiivka.
Ukraine is claiming Russia is taking heavy casualties in its push for Avdiivka. The White House has backed the claim but has also acknowledged Moscow “may achieve some tactical successes” in the coming months.
The push on Avdiivka, which began on October 10, is a sign that Russia is going more on the offensive as it’s clear the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed. Despite the lack of Ukrainian success, the Biden administration is still pushing for $61 more billion to continue funding the proxy war for an entire year and has no interest in a ceasefire.
Ukraine can hardly gain any ground, but Russia is. How much longer will the US fuel this senseless proxy war on Russia’s doorstep? We have a few other senseless wars to start and support elsewhere you know.
This is as our wars go pretty cheap. We get to dispose of a lot of munitions that are past their “best before” dates and shovel $$$ to the MIC. Very little of those billions of aid are spent in the Ukraine.
…plus let useful idiots…erm, excuse me, ‘Patriotic Ukrainian Brave-o-nauts’…probe Russian Federation defenses and tactics while American tacticians take notes from afar.
Russia facing a fully funded US/NATO/Five-eyes attack using Ukrainian troops is tightening Russian control in the center as it gradually moves northeast and prepares to move southeast.
Though it tried to avoid war, Russia is calmly defeating combined national strengths of western corporatist war mongers who started this fight. Gaza has has helped humanity see the ugly immorality of what is going on in corporatism. World-wide war resistors are uniting against fake western democracies and are beginning to see what many forms of real democracies will look like in the future.
Delusional but keep on repeating it.
That’s the dishonest attitude that’s killing Russia.
Read up in Chile, Cuba, Brazil, Venezuela, Bolivia, Columbia and Nicaragua. Learn a bit about democracy. Read about the desire for perfecting whole process democracy in China. Research elections in the new regions that have voted to rejoin Russia. Watch videos of Ukrainians peer into clear plastic ballot boxes until their vote joined the pile at the bottom. All but a few humans want to live in a democracy.
Evolution is accelerating at an accelerating rate in step with Cosmos expanding at an accelerating rate. Rules based Western Corporatism makes the rules up when ever one is needed.
There are billions of people who are socially evolving past what corporate totalitarianism and its fake Hollywood election extravaganzas can keep up with. The US/Nato axis can do war on humans and Earth but it will be left behind sooner than later.
Vivir Bien — Live well in balance with Earth and have fun leaving it richer when you die.
If you think most of those countries are “democracies,” that thing you’re doing that you think is thinking isn’t.
If you think the US is a democracy, well, I also get tongue-tied about what is is.
What on earth would lead you to believe that I think the US is a “democracy?”
Please excuse my nearly flippant error.
PS > The idea of evolution accelerating at an accelerating rate in sync with cosmic expansion allso accelerating yields the need for accurate information and a way to focus the combined intelligence of an educated population via democracy and a fully informed free market that is aware of environmental impact via full price cost accounting, externally as well as internally.
Democracy is simply a tool for focusing distributed intelligence. Efforts to focus will tend to converge for many real-world reasons. Artificial intelligence can not replace evolution in time to save elite owners of government.
If by democracy, if you mean mob rule, then I agree.
“Learn a bit…”
Waaaay too big an ask. When someone hates them some Russians, and wants to see America’s not-outright-win of the Cold War at the end of the 1980’s turned into a defiant victory to prove USA A-OK, considering a contrary (or modern) set of facts won’t likely happen.
Dave DeCamp is wrong to conclude that the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed. Russia lost the Ukrainian war over a year ago. What happens on the battlefield does not matter. In asymmetric wars of national resistance the battle plan of the resistance is to survive and resist. It is a miracle that the Ukrainian army is still in the field. But even if Russia defeats the Ukrainian army the Russians will be fighting a forever war against a popular resistance that will only grow stronger and more implacable until the Russian military leaves Ukraine. Wars of national resistance are determined by hearts and minds, not force of arms. The Ukrainian war has gone far beyond the point where Russia has any chance of pacifying Donbas, Zaporizhia or Kherson. It may take a very long time for Russia to get a pragmatic leadership with the wisdom to end Putin’s folly.
Yeah, pacifying the Donbas is gonna be tough. 🙄
Good news about Russia and bad news about Ukraine is the antiwar.com flavor these days.
The end seems to be near. Russia’s imperial satrap in Belarus is now calling for a ceasefire to end the “stalemate.” Imperial satraps don’t make public statements without prior approval from their masters.
They do sometimes but just for optics however, if true, a cease fire may not be in good faith as it is difficult to deal with the guy who wants it all.
The last Russian ceasefire proposal I can recall was for a short (eastern/Orthodox) Christmas ceasefire. Optics? Maybe. But I suspect they’d have kept to that one.
Belarus is in sync with Moscow. Putin is tenaciously holding his land bridge and part of Donbas and Crimea. But in the long run Russia’s tactical position is unsustainable. Rusia can’t lift martial law in the occupied territories and the resistance is growing stronger. Putin wants and needs a ceasefire. The situation in analogous to the US calling for a ceasefire while the Taliban demanded the withdrawal of foreign troops as a precondition. Right now a ceasefire is a nonstarter for the Ukrainian resistance..
You must have a huge hole considering the stuff you pull out of it.
Most people call it reality. But we can’t have that because then the continued use of Ukraine to weaken Russia would be in serious trouble. But it’s good of you to want Ukrainians to continue to die to meet the West’s (US) goals.
They seem to be rooting for Russia.
You’ve posted this before. It’s no more true the second time around. Pure unadulterated BS mixed with a strong dose of wishful “thinking”… But it’s not really thinking is it. More like industrial strength brain farting.
I’m in the mood to get long-winded. Let’s have at, Shmi.
“Dave DeCamp is wrong to conclude that the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed.”
He’s only going exactly where all credible evidence leads.
“Russia lost the Ukrainian war over a year ago.”
Yes, and bless the Ukrainians’ cotton socks for keep that won war going for…reasons ?
“What happens on the battlefield does not matter.”
Not even Sun Tzu could put philosophical lipstick on that pig of an inane statement.
“In asymmetric wars of national resistance …”
Too bad this is a conventional State A vs. State B capital-w War.
“It is a miracle that the Ukrainian army is still in the field.”
No miracle. It’s NATO support, one year on & counting.
“But even if Russia defeats the Ukrainian army…”
Didn’t you JUST SAY “Russia lost the Ukrainian war over a year ago” ??
The rest isn’t worth quoting – what it boils down to is you asserting that the Russian Federation is attempting to occupy regions where it doesn’t hold popular support. Any region it takes and holds after the war ends (for realsies ‘Ends’, not the ‘end’ you said & didn’t say already did and/or didn’t end) will likely be regions with large ethic Russian populations that wanted the RF to intervene since 2014 AND would, by majority support, wish to accede to the Russian Federation.
Unless those regions and the RF came to a limited-sovereignty agreement where those regions were a protectorate of the RF but with that self-autonomy as promised by Minsk II but never seriously considered by Kiev.
I would think the RF would like such territories as arms-length buffer-zones; and not Federation space abutting the future European Union Welfare State of Ukraine (Now Featuring No Coastline !)
Avdiivka looks to be another Bakhmut in the making; similar to Bakhmut, Ukraine has been preparing defenses in Avdiivka since 2014, as a logistics hub and forward base for their war against the Donbas separatists; its loss would represent a significant defeat, especially if, as seems likely, they take the Russian bait and reinforce the city heavily with what few reserves they still have.
“Making some gains” wildly underrepresents Russia’s achievement here; Russia took the “wasteheap”, a landfill that towers over the surrounding ground, and is busy fortifying it now – they’ve also taken the rail line, and are only 4 to 5 km from closing the circle; the last major obstacle to the northern advance seems to be the fortified chemical plant. The tips of their pincers are actually several miles BEHIND Avdiivka, making withdrawal even now a hazardous operation – any Ukrainian withdrawal would have to run a gauntlet of Russian fire, from two sides, for several kilometers before reaching safety.
The Russians achievement, even if it came with the “heavy losses” claimed by the Ukrainians, is far more impressive than Ukraine’s fumbling around Robotyne – and much more strategically important.
Oh, finally an article about Ukraine. One would think the war there was over but no, what really happened was that Putin’s war is really going bad.
Here an article turning Russia’s complete multi failed attempts to take that city despite thousands of their own troops killed, into a “Russia gaining ground in Avdivka”. Lol.
Rumor has it (again) that Putin is near death. We can only hope this is true because then Russia will immediately withdraw from Ukraine and agree to acquiesce to every demand by the West (US). Right?
I always discount rumors of Putin’s impending or actual death.
On the other hand, Lukashenko publicly calling for a ceasefire indicates SOMETHING causing a change in Moscow’s position. If Putin really is dead or in some kind of severe health state, he (or someone acting in his stead) may be looking for a way to get the Ukraine fiasco frozen before the succession struggle gets going.
https://apnews.com/article/putin-russia-misinformation-heart-attack-telegram-3c25f229f994aaa87d837285412cb1be
Yeah, that particular source was why I discounted the rumor. But I did pay a little attention to whether Putin’s public appearances afterward seemed obviously canned, etc. He appeared in public with a fairly large religious body, for example. I would expect that if those things were old footage rather than current, word would get out.
Word would definitely get out. It might be possible to pull off a deception like this in North Korea, but not in Russia.
Many of Putin’s public appearances are canned and theatrical. And I can even imagine the Kremlin using a double in, e.g., a stadium ceremony or a review of troops if they didn’t want the world to know where the president really was and what he was doing on some particular day. But they couldn’t get away with faking it for the nation and the world is they had a dead president. Too many people would know and plenty of them would want to “share” the news.
I’m sure there would be energetic jockeying among various power centers and interest groups in the process of determining long-term succession. And ultimately it would involve a real election, which would not be as bogus, or as fair and open, as some may imagine. In the interim, the constitution provides that the prime minister (not the official title) becomes acting president. That’s how Putin first occupied the office, when Yeltsin resigned. Mikhail Mishustin is the current PM. He’s a Putin appointee.
“And ultimately it would involve a real election, which would not be as bogus, or as fair and open, as some may imagine. In the interim, the constitution provides that the prime minister (not the official title) becomes acting president. ”
Unless the army says otherwise, at which point it gets a little dicier than that.
Don’t let your imagination carry you too far away from reality here and now. 🙂 I can think of three times since the turn of the 20th century when elements of the Russian military have been involved in coup attempts.
The one attempt that succeeded was the October Revolution. Some army units made significant contributions, but it certainly wasn’t a military coup.
Earlier in 1917, there was Kornilov’s attempt against Kerensky’s provisional government. It didn’t have much support, it failed, and Kornilov was arrested. I don’t remember what happened to him.
There was significant military involvement in the 1991 coup attempt against Gorbachev, but it certainly wasn’t a military coup. And of course it failed.
There’s no indication of which I’m aware that suggests a violent struggle for succession is likely. A political struggle is virtually guaranteed. Of course, the same may be true of the US, for next year.
I didn’t say there would be a coup. Or even an attempted coup. I simply said that if the army decides to take up a position, that will have consequences.
OK. Yes, the military might have a say and, if it does, that will matter.
Thomas, Putin has wanted a ceasefire in place for over a year. Russia is in over its head, Lukashenko is acting at Putin’s behest. Ukraine does not want a ceasefire with Russia occupying 15-20% of its territory.
I do too. I’m just doing a ‘what if’ since most must think that something better, or less bad, is waiting in the wings to replace Putin.
“Putin’s war is really going bad”
Tequila man once again provides the hard hitting analysis we all depend on. You heard it here first: defeating the Ukrainian “spring offensive” is in actuality a defeat for Russia. Even though Russia has established an impenetrable line of defense and has been waging a war of attrition their decision to finally go the offensive is evidence of the war “really going bad.” Such detailed and cogent analysis. How does he do it?
Once again, Tequila man has everything ass backwards. Did anyone expect the Russians to waltz into the most heavily fortified position on the front unopposed while taking no casualties? No of course not. Anyone who has been paying attention to this war knows that it is now the Russian army that will face attrition while it attempts to go on the offensive. The point that the mentally deficient neocons don’t get is the most simple calculation in military affairs, i.e. the balance of forces. Russia has more troops and equipment to lose and also the institutions and industrial capacity to replace lost units. Ukraine, increasingly does not. That is the current state of play.
It seems that the battle for Avdiivka is shaping up to be Bakhmut 2.0, the difference being that this time the Ukrainians are beginning to run out of money and well trained troops. It is hard to predict the future but there is the potential for Avdiivka to be the Ukrainian army’s last stand. Of course the war will grind on for quite a bit longer but Ukraine will no longer have the capacity to go on the offensive. It’s better for them to get to the negotiating table as soon as possible before they lose access to the Black Sea and become a landlocked rump state.
The Russian Federation had, has, and will retain, escalation dominance. The USA is diverting a lot of resources to the Apartheid State of Israel (ASI, my new designation for PM Netanyahu’s ‘Make Israel Great Forever’ plan) to make sure a country with the upper hand over its opponents has way more’n it needs for as long as it wants.
And supporting a Zionist cause for home Religious Right consumption pre- Election 2k024 is waaaay sexier than supporting a neo-Nazi cause in Ukraine for far-Right, 1980s Russophobes who number far fewer at the polls.
“Oh, finally an article about Ukraine.”
You have a lot of pent-up alternate-reality opinions there, Donald ?
Yes, Avdiivka is indeed about 3 miles north of Donetsk. But Donetsk is already within Russia-controlled territory. The Russian offensive in the Donbas is moving west, not south. Avdiivka is under siege and about to fall because Ukrainian forces there have been bombarding Donetsk, since 2014.
Well the Russians may win. If they do “win” I hope it is as costly as possible so that the thought of waging further war will be viewed as a terrible idea. The US should not send in troops or advisors in an attempt to stave off the loss
The Russian city Donetsk has been free from the illegal regime in Kiev since their coup in 2014, when the pro-democracy Russians broke free. Perhaps you mean a better position to protect the city if they free Avdiivka.
The Ukrainians have been using occupied Avdiivka as their base for killing the people in Donetsk every year since the coup, with artillery aiming at government buildings, schools, apartment buildings. Many of the more than 100,000 who the coup regime’s attacks made homeless in Donbass lived in Donetsk. So did many of the 14,000 killed by artillery. The Ukrainian regime and their hangers-on nurture an intense hatred of the people in Donetsk, which they display fully on social media, laughing at the dead.