Russian forces have gained more territory in Ukraine this year than the Ukrainian side despite the Ukrainian counteroffensive that was launched in June, The New York Times reported on Thursday.
The report noted that despite nine months of heavy fighting in Ukraine, only about 500 square miles of territory have changed hands this year. Russia has gained 331 square miles while Ukraine has gained 143, a difference of 188, which amounts to Russia’s net gain in territory so far this year.
Most of the fighting in the first half of the year focused around the Donbas city of Bakhmut, which Russia fully captured in May after a brutal battle that started in August 2022. Ukraine’s counteroffensive has focused on the south, but fighting has continued near Bakhmut and across the entire eastern front.
The Times quoted Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher in war studies at King’s College London, who said Russia appears to be comfortable holding the territory it currently controls rather than seeking rapid gains.
“It’s not losing anything by not moving forward,” Miron said. “The whole strategy in Ukraine is for the Russians to let the Ukrainians run against those defenses, kill as many as possible, and destroy as much Western equipment as possible.”
The report said that the situation on the battlefield comes with “huge risks” for Ukraine since it could lose Western support without significant gains. “Russia is trying to wait out until the West turns its back,” Miron said.
Leading up to the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Discord leaks and media reports revealed that the US did not believe Ukraine could regain much territory from Russia. But the Biden administration pushed for the assault anyway and rejected the idea of a ceasefire.
The Wall Street Journal reported in July that Western officials knew Ukrainian forces didn’t have enough training or equipment for their counteroffensive but hoped they would be able to break through anyway.
The lack of progress in the counteroffensive has not fazed the Biden administration, which is determined to support an open-ended conflict. Hawks in Congress are trying to sell the proxy war as a success since Russia is taking losses and no Americans are dying, demonstrating a lack of concern for Ukrainian lives.
Zelenskiy and his generals are stretching the battles out to keep that unaccounted for sweet, sweet, Western aid money flowing into their pockets. The fact that everyone on the Ukraine side knew this would fail and sent those ill-trained, involuntary conscripts into this battle anyway is criminal. Zelenskiy, his generals, Biden, and the warhawks in Congress have blood on their hands.
It is increasingly difficult for Ukrainian/NATO army to keep the frontline. No one knows how long they can carry on like that but the outcome of this war is predictable. Collapse of Kiev regime is unavoidable.
It’s been collapsing since the beginning of the war. 🤣
It is not just a lack of concern for the loss of Ukrainian lives, which of course is. a tragedy, but the potential that this kind of war scenario can quickly evolve into a massively larger conflict, potentially leading us into another World War. If that were to happen, we could easily find ourselves in a nuclear war. TPTB had better factor that in, if they are hedging their bets…
Russia destroyed several bridges over the Oskil River last night, and thereby cut supply lines to AFU troops between the river and the front. It is expected that Russia will attack those areas very soon. If Russia is successful, the map in the above post will change considerably.
Russia is currently allowing AFU troops to surrender.
According to the Military Summary Channel, the Russians flew a drone 470+ kilometers on a straight line, most of it over Ukrainian territory, to accomplish that. The blogger is saying that this indicates that Ukraine has lost its air defense.
That’s a great neutral channel to follow the war daily. Its depressing though, just daily slaughter, but talks about the 100,000 man Russian reserve force in the north waiting for the green light to advance. This may have begun this week.
“That’s a great neutral channel to follow the war daily. Its depressing though, just daily slaughter . . .”
Yes, it’s one of the best sources for fairly balanced reporting and assessments. And it’s depressing as hell, because the reality of this mess is depressing as hell.
Same… He’s serious about keeping it a summary and leaves a lot out to avoid Youtube censorship.
Watch him on Rumble. Fkkk the YouTube censors.
I feel the same way. But Rumble doesn’t seem to have the same functionality, reminders, playlists or I am ignorant and don’t know how to use it. I always thought I probably would have to learn it one day. I also tried telegram, which has unbelievable stuff but again it takes me a long time to find what I am looking for. If they make me use them, I will have to learn. LOL. Have you seen the Voice of Reason video clips on YouTube? He is fantastic as well.
Rumble apparently doesn’t have playlists, but I like their “my feed” functionality — just click on “my feed” and it shows me all the latest stuff from channels I’m subscribed to (Conflicts of Interest, Antiwar News, Russell Brand, Greenwald, Hard Lens, etc.).
Thank you, Thomas. You listed my favorite guys.
Information on the frequency Ukrainians can contact to surrender safely has been known for a while, but it has been made now very public. The reason? The families can pass information to their relatives on the front. Lately, groups have been surrendering. It really looks mire like a rescue operation, Once contact iis made tgey get instructions how to safely cross over. It is amazing that with such level of loathing and hatred that leople feel for Zelenski and his circle, that we still believe in his heroic image.
And some are willing to shut the government rather than to agree to remove the propised billions for Ukraine from spending bill. It is an obsession by few that is now creating a hostage situation that willl cost many Americans their livelihood.
Nice to see someone finally say this. I have pointed this out several times, in various posts; anyone looking at the daily battle maps posted on youtube, including those on pro-Ukrainian channels, could see that this was the case – and that the endless “Ukrainians breach Russian lines” stories on USA Today, CNN, BBC, and Reuters were nonsense; the Ukrainians started fighting in Robotyne at the end of July; now, at the end of September, they are STILL fighting in Robotyne, a tiny village of perhaps 500 homes – so spare me any comparison with Bakhmut.
Latest developments being reported on Redacted is that Ukrainians are surrendering in considerable numbers; the Russians have set up a special radio frequency for units to negotiate surrender. They claim “10,000” have surrendered so far, which seems high, but who knows?
I have always believed, as Miron stated in the article, that Russia assuming a defensive posture and allowing Ukraine to wear itself out was the appropriate move for them, and that contrary to western media reports, Russia is growing stronger as Ukraine is bleeding out.
Anything can happen, but this article strikes me as accurate.
“Nice to see someone finally say this.”
Not least the NYT: obsequious to US foreign policy propaganda, it has repeatedly characterized what is essentially a failed counteroffensive – that points up a greater stalemate – as Ukrainian ‘grueling progress’…
…though the actual text of some of this NYT coverage – especially admitting casualty rates – undercuts the the ‘slow progress’ narrative, allowing the hideous truth to seep in:
“Ukrainian Soldiers Tell Of High Losses For Little Gains”
[see especially discussion of NYT Charlotta Gall piece]
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/07/ukrainian-soldiers-tell-of-high-losses-and-few-wins.html#more
“After Pushing Gains By Ukraine NYT Notes Its Losses”
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/09/after-pushing-gains-by-ukraine-nyt-notes-its-losses.html#more
What this article really shows and i’m sure it was not Dave’s intent, is how humiliating and embarrassing this war has been for Russia.
They are literally fighting a country with zero economic power, zero Army, and no weapons because allegedly, Russia has killed and destroyed the entire army and all weapons West delivered.
Yet, the So called second strongest Army in the world cannot even go on the offensive, especially now with all the millions of unrecorded land mines they have placed, they are virtually locked in and often hit their own mines.
But the SMO is going according to plans.
“What this article really shows”
Maybe, but you also have to admit that the Ukrainian offensive has failed.
You won’t get that from him. At most you’ll get crowing about the 143 square mile gain with no reference to or recognition of what it means in the greater perspective.
Antiwar.com essayists have spoken of Trump Derangement Syndrome (IF Trump THEN automatically bad) before. We are wise to recognize Russia Derangement Syndrome (anything Russian = bad, fake, lies; all anti-Russian = true by default) in the psyche of some among us.
I will cede that based on territorial gains, given the strong Russian defensive lines, it has been a failure however, the well choreographed work by Ukraine on the Russian rear has produced great return on investment.
Was it worth hundreds of thousands of dead Ukrainians?
It was worth it to the psychopaths in DC.
No, but for Ukraine it’s been worth the even more hundred of thousands of dead Russians. 🤷🏽♂️
Ukraine had the second largest army in Europe, and it was NATO trained and supplied. How big is that army now?
It’s zero. Thanks for reaffirming what i just said.
Russia cannot even fight a country without an army.
Russia degraded the Ukrainian Army down to nothing as the goal of saving ethnic Russians in the Donbas regions has largely been achieved. Putin does not want to take all of Ukraine as it is a failed state and an economic basket case. Russians are in a holding pattern of defending the newly annexed sections of the Donbas. Considering that Russia has been up against the U.S. and 30 plus NATO nations, which are throwing everything they have at Russia, I would say the Russians have done quite well. Only you could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Complete BS.
Putin has not achieved anything.
The only thing he has achieved is destroying his own army and killing hundreds of thousands of his own troops to include thousands of Ukrainians.
If he wanted to protect a few, he should’ve just repatriated those who wanted to be in Russia.
He started the war for personal reasons and now he is stuck in a giant hole.
Ukraine is NOT a failed state.
Look at the definition and educate himself.
Whatever Don. Believe whatever you want.
“”Russia cannot even fight a country without an army.””
so what. shouldn’t that be a good thing? according to you, Russia could not even fight Crimea.
so how the hell has uncle sam not already set up shop in downtown Moscow?
Because in case you missed it, it is Russia the one who wants to invade a take land from its neighbors
“how humiliating and embarrassing this war has been for Russia….the So called second strongest Army in the world cannot even go on the offensive…especially now with all the millions of…land mines they have placed, they are virtually locked in”
Fantastic! Totally agree! The civilized world has totally won! Da Russkies are like, totally “locked in”! They can never win! Poland and all the rest can at last rest easy!
So clearly – in a war military planners have repeatedly let slip is a stalemate…it’s negotiated settlement time!
No excuses now – time to end the massive, unnecessary death and dismemberment of young Ukrainian and Russians and bereavement of their loved ones!
“. . . it’s negotiated settlement time!”
That would be nice, but it’s very unlikely to happen anytime soon.
Russia is not going to give up any of the territory and other advantages it has gained to date and the US isn’t ready to give up its campaign to weaken Russia, especially in a presidential election cycle.
and when other people’s blood is being spilled.
The cheapest war ever, as Graham said.
I agree.
It’s time for Putin to pull the fuk out and return the land that isn’t his in the name of peace
Now, Donald – don’t be so quick to assume M1A1 Abramsawicz is agreeing with or saying what you want to hear.
A more critical, less in-group-biased analysis of their reply comes off as a brilliant ‘troll’ of you, followed by an insightful and nuanced conclusion I thiiiiink you skipped over in a haze of delight at finding a fellow-traveler on your puzzling path around observable reality.
Haha i thought you were smart enough to get sarcasm. Your are such a delusional Putin supporter.
Call me troll all you want. It won’t change anything, empty wagon.
You perhaps misunderstand again, Donald. I suggest that M1A1 was trolling YOU, and that in your rush to agree with anything that tangentially appears to agree with you, you missed it.
Do I support President Putin and the Russian Federation ? Yes. I do so not to see he and the RF fed, but to see war-eager NATO and a neoNazi-laced Ukraine eaten.
NATO exists after 1991 to counter the threats generated by the continued existence of NATO. End that alliance and you end future provocation and misuse of force. That is my thesis for an antiwar future.
I despise Authoritarianism and especially neoNaziism. Ukraine is THE only country on Earth to have an openly neoNazi regiment in their official armed forces structure. They have banned religions, political opposition, elections, language and culture, all in the name of “security”. It enslaves male citizens for war in the name of “defense” of a state unworthy of saving.
I would see such a state entirely destroyed, for the sake of it and to let this global, nascent lust for authoritarian ideals know that (Ukraine’s situation) is what you get to those sociopolitical ends.
Don, are you sober?
If by sober you mean I support Ukraine’s fight for its freedom then YES.
How can you NOT know, this war is NOT about Ukrainian freedom, it IS about USA/MIC FOR PROFIT hegemony?
NO, YOU CAN’T BE SOBER.
Do you actually think the use of the word “fuk” gives you some sort of gravitas or authority in your comments, or just gives the impression you’re a foul-mouthed big mouth?
Oh GTFOH with you lame lecture.
What’s your problem? Your Putin’s war isn’t going well?
It’ll get worse so get ready
That would require rational thinking, which is not available in the asylum in DC.
It takes two to tango, Biden/Nuland/Zelensky just don’t show up.
Don, every child knows you can’t expect any rationality from insane people. Putin must be careful when dealing with Biden and his asylum inmates, they are walking time bombs.
Putin walks on eggshells.
Yes. Yess. 100 %
The SMO is more on track than the latest ‘counteroffensive’.
Russia’s defensive position is much more favorable than US/Ukraine’s failed attempt at a counteroffensive. Why the hell would they want to execute an offensive when the Ukrainians are doing such a great job of providing targets for Russian interlocking fields of fire, arty, mines, etc?
Ukraine has entered a very desperate phase of this conflict.
Europe’s support is dwindling and will accelerate due to domestic disapproval and skyrocketing costs. Paying 4x for American transported LNG will stop and Europe will be again using cheap Russian NG (at levels prior to the SMO). The US, as usual, will find a way to creatively spin their cessation of support.
“Mission Accomplished!” ………..lol.
Winter is coming. Tick, tick, tick…..
Yes. Agree 100%.
Please, keep on repeating that. The Russian people need to hear that.
Russia is winning incredibly.
Reread my post above. Please do it sober.
I’m presenting fact based on the current state of Ukraine.
So, with your sarcasm laced retort, are you suggesting that:
1) Ukraine’s counteroffensive is making significant territorial gains?
2) They aren’t in a desperate phase of this conflicts with support dwindling from Europe and, soon, the US?
3) The US is not profiting from Europe from an energy perspective? What’s next from you Don? Denial that the MIC is not profiting immensely from this conflict?
Are you that daft?
They don’t have to go on the offensive, they’re letting the Ukrainians come to them, that way they reduce Russian casulities but still able to inflict casulties on Ukraine. The fact is, Russia doesn’t have to do much of anything except wait for the ending for Ukraine. Here’s a little insight for you. https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/09/natos-stoltenberg-admits-war-could-have-been-prevented/
Yes. Of course.
Great plan.
And that way they reduce Russian casualties?
The fuk you talking about? Russia hasn’t taken any casualties.
”’ is how humiliating and embarrassing this war has been for Russia….””
yeah i bet Putin is just dying of embarrassment right about now.
meanwhile Zelenski literally played the piano with his penis, yet he bears no embarrassment ? =
also check out Zelenski’s totally macho moves here = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FNDKdptBRY
so really Julio, what is the standard for which embarrassment is gauged ?
by the way, Zelenski is the 2nd from the left. literally the very most macho of his entire crue, which evidently consists of 4 members.
hey maybe Zelenski has been been hanging around with uncle sam for too long. anyway, this is who Zelensky was before “somebody” elevated him to the level of supreme leader.
WTF does been and artist and perform on stage have to do with being a man? Do you believe he was playing a piano with his penis? Are you that fuking stupid snd ignorant?
Do you know who has been pretending to be a macho all of his life? You got it, Putin. He is a closet gay.
So go eat a bag of Diks.
wow Julio, that guy is allegedly the president of Ukraine.
whether or not he was actually playing the piano with his penis or not is not really the issue, is it. the real issue is that the president of Ukraine is literally the queerest man on the planet.
edit = you just told me to “eat a bag of Diks”
but you are too feeble to even type the word “dicks”.
idiot
Perhaps, after this performance they decided he is good enough to be president of Ukraine.
OMG don’t give them any credit unless credit is due
Ukraine is fighting an asymmetric war of national resistance that the Russians have lost many months ago. It doesn’t really matter who wins on the battlefield. The fact that there is still a battlefield 20 months after a major power invaded means that the national resistance has popular support and will not quit until the invader leaves. In Algeria the Algerians had fifty times the casualties of the French. In Vietnam the Vietnamese communists had twenty times the casualties of the American invaders. In Ireland the IRA casualties far exceeded the casualties of the British. And in Palestine, the Palestinain casualties far exceed the casualties of the Zionists. The key to national resistance is hearts and minds, not force of arms or dollars and cents.
To succeed an imperial invader needs to conquer (i.e. defeat the indigenous army), occupy (i.e. control territory) and pacify (i.e. eliminate the resistance). If the resistance has enough popular support the invader becomes trapped in a negative feedback loop where the invader’s fighting only strengthens the resistance. That is what is defeating Russia in Ukraine.
When Putin invaded I realized that he is a classic Russian chauvinist who is blind to the reality of Ukrainian nationalism.
This success of the Ukrainian resistance is measured by the persistence of the resistance, not by gains in territory. I was worried when the Ukrainians partially acquiesced to NATO expectations by attacking stable Russian defensive lines. Fortunately, the Ukrainians are switching to more effective long range drone attacks on targets in Crimea and Russia. Those attacks minimize Ukrainian casualties and will eventually engender the political conditions in Russia that will lead Russians to demand an end to Putin’s futile war.The same thing happened in France , the UK, the USA and the USSR when their military forces were eventually worn down by national resistance movements in asymmetric wars.
I expect the US and NATO will substantially cut aid to Ukraine by the end of 2024. The result will be to prolong the war, but not to change the outcome. Even if the Ukrainian army is defeated on the battlefield, the resistance will continue until the Russians leave Ukraine.
Possible but also Possible after fighting a total war and getting slowly destroyed the Ukrainians will also suffer the collapse of moral there will blames as to why zelensky rejected the April 22 proposal to go back to status quo, also it seems the places Russia took already have population who identify with Russia u need widespread support of the population to carry out a high intensity insurgency. No doubt will have some support in the forcibly taken territories and they can send people from across the border but the resulting insurgency might be more a irritant than something that can make Russia cut and run. If u can maintain massive force presence u can even defeat insurgency that has popular support and backing of state backing. Indian administered kashmir comes to mind. If I m wrong and the population in Russian occupied territories actually want to be part of Ukraine then I hope they succeed
When a big power invades a small country there are only two possible outcomes. Either the invader wins quick or the invade loses big. Russia did not win quick.
Simplistic beyond belief. Are you Blinken?
Not just simplistic. It is plain stupid.
I guess one way to demonstrate that would be to name a war where a big power invaded a small country and won, but not quickly.
I guess that Russia’s invasion, conquest, occupation, and annexation of Chechnya/Ichkeria might qualify. That took two wars, one of them two years long and one of them 10 years long.
Chechnya is an exception. The US war in the Philippines (1899-1902) might be another exception. But my prediction for Ukraine is that it will continue to get worse for Russia until Russia leaves.
I tend to agree, for certain definitions of “leave.” The Russians will likely be keeping Donetsk and Luhansk for the foreseeable future.
It might become a frozen conflict, like Northern Island. But for the forseeable future, I don’t think the Ukrainian people are willing to make a treaty that gives up Crimea, much less the Donbas. Even if Zelensky signed a treaty, the national resistance will continue just as the IRA and Sinn Fein continued the struggle to unite Ireland after the Dublin government dropped the demand. And despite the Unionist majority in Ulster, it has become clear that Ireland will eventually be united. The Russian majority in Crimea is a result of imperialist settlement and ethnic cleansing policies similar to the Ulster Plantation that temporarily produced a Protestant majority in Northern Ireland. The irony and tragedy of this unnecessary war is that Putin probably could have gotten away with annexing Crimea. But by upping the ante with this invasion he ignited ancestral hatreds that unleashed a conflict that won’t end until Crimea comes back to the Ukraine or a new generation cools down. Putin’s war is the most classic example of stupidity I can recall. He started something that the Ukrainians are not going to let him exit from. At this point the US/NATO and even Zelensky can’t make peace with Russia unless the Russians leave all of Ukraine. Perhaps there could be meaningful internationally supervised plebiscites after a 10 to 15 year cooling off period after the Russians leave and things get sorted out. But the Russian invasion touched a deep rooted nerve in the Ukrainian people and the popular resistance is likely continue even if the resistance is sold out by US/NATO and the government. Like the IRA.
In 2014 I thought Putin’s annexation of Crimea was a genius move and an appropriate response to NATO expansion and ethnic conflict in Ukraine. But the fool threw it all away when he went ape shit crazy and tried to grab it all. Now he started a generational conflict. You can’t unscramble an egg.
I
It might become a frozen conflict, like Northern Island. But for the forseeable future, I don’t think the Ukrainian people are willing to make a treaty that gives up Crimea, much less the Donbas. Even if Zelensky signed a treaty, the national resistance will ontinue just as the IRA and Sinn Fein continued the struggle to unite Ireland after the Dublin government dropped the demand. And despite the Unionist majority in Ulster, it has become clear that Ireland will eventually be united.
The Russian majority in Crimea is a result of imperialist settlement and ethnic cleansing policies similar to the Ulster Plantation that temporarily produced a Protestant majority in Northern Ireland. The irony and tragedy of this unnecessary war is that Putin probably could have gotten away with annexing Crimea. But by upping the ante with this invasion he ignited ancestral hatreds that unleashed a conflict that won’t end until Crimea comes back to Ukraine or a new generation cools down. Putin’s war is the most classic example of stupidity I can recall. He started something that the Ukrainians are not going to let him exit from. At this point the US/NATO and even Zelensky can’t make peace with Russia unless the Russians leave all of Ukraine. Perhaps there could be meaningful internationally supervised plebiscites after a 10 to 15 year cooling off period after the Russians leave and things get sorted out. But the Russian invasion touched a deep rooted nerve in the Ukrainian people and the popular resistance is likely continue even if the resistance is sold out by US/NATO and the government. Like the IRA.
In 2014 I thought Putin’s annexation of Crimea was a genius move and an appropriate response to NATO expansion and ethnic conflict in Ukraine. But the fool threw it all away when he went apeshit crazy and tried to grab it all. Now he started a generational conflict. You
can’t unscramble an egg.
While I do always try to question my priors, my assumption since the initial Russian offensive failed to achieve the obvious objectives in a timely manner has been that it will end up back in frozen conflict status, only with Donetsk, Luhansk, and the land corridor to Crimea in Russian hands.
My impression is that Zelenskyy is likely to be assassinated or removed by e.g. a coup if he attempts to reach any kind of formal agreement with the Russians that leaves them with those things.
Simple but true.
Except the territory Russia occupies have been fighting an insurgency against the government in Kiev since 2014
Territory doesn’t fight insurgencies. People do. Some of the people in the territory in question were fighting for the Ukrainian regime, some against it.
Amazing insight: “Territory doesn’t fight insurgencies. People do.” A new Clausewitz has emerged.
As to your point that some people support the Kiev regime in the Donbass and Kherson and Zaparozhia regions: again, amazing insight. How many human communities enjoy 100% agreement on most things? Even in the territories under the control of the Kiev regime you will find many who do not like being in the current Ukraine with its Banderist inspired racialist policies. The Ukraine is not a homogenous country and efforts to make it so, inspired by the Banderist racist nationalist ideal, have resulted in this conflict.
I wonder how many are fighting for or against it now. Some Afghans were fighting for the NATO puppet government and some were fighting against it, and we all know how that turned out
There seems to be no civilian resistance in the areas Russia controls; certainly not in Crimea or the Donbas. I suspect that the possibility of civilian resistance is one reason why the Russians were so willing to abandon Kherson city, and didn’t waste a lot of effort on taking Kharkov; their military has better things to do than try and pacify a city of millions.
As to how “determined” the eastern Ukrainians are to “resist”, I think that’s questionable. Obviously the far west, and the nationalists are, but the rest of the populace? We really can’t know, as Zelensky has jailed all critics, shut down all media, and banned opposition political parties.
If there’s no resistance in Donetsk, why did the Russian regime’s quisling there impose a curfew and censorship of postal mail, text messages, and telephone conversations last week?
I don’t know. Do you? Have there been confirmed acts of sabotage and civilian resistance, or even anti-Russian demonstrations, on anything like the scale experienced by us in Iraq and Afg? There were in Kherson City; one of the main reasons the Russians were so willing to let it go.
No idea as to scale. But presumably curfews and censorship didn’t get imposed because Pushilin couldn’t find his car keys and assumed they’d be stolen by the local resistance. During the September 10 “elections,” he claimed that poll workers had been “wounded and injured.” By whom?
Again; don’t know. But if there was any large scale disturbances, they would be getting reported. Donbas has been Separatist-controlled now for 9 years; anyone pro-the other side has likely been weeded out by now.
“No idea as to scale.”
Scale is a rather important metric in a discussion about resistance. Virtually every political entity deals with resistance of various kinds. Whether or not that’s a real threat, or even a serious annoyance, depends largely on scale.
Javy Lopez is right: If there was significant active resistance in the Donbas, Western media would be all over it.
Nations at war routinely impose restrictions such as curfews and censorship regimes. They are not reliable indicators of internal resistance.
“Scale is a rather important metric in a discussion about resistance.”
Certainly. But all I know FOR SURE about the scale is that it’s apparently been sufficiently problematic in the last month or so to have prompted a NEW curfew and NEW censorship measures.
“If there was significant active resistance in the Donbas, Western media would be all over it.”
The western media that you don’t believe tells you the truth? That western media there? Like this? Or this? Or maybe this?
“. . . all I know FOR SURE about the scale is that it’s apparently been sufficiently problematic in the last month or so to have prompted a NEW curfew and NEW censorship measures.”
That it’s “apparent” to you doesn’t mean that what appears to you is what is actually happening. As I said, polities at war often institute such measures, for various reasons. And five-hour, weeknight-only curfews are hardly likely to be effective against sabotage or other partisan attacks, if those are a problem. Also, censorship in these situations is normally intended to prevent transmission of information useful to enemies, by spies or inadvertently by local populations. It’s not an indicator, usually, that the authorities are combating a serious resistance problem.
“Like this? Or this? Or maybe this?”
A claim about disgruntled Russian officers, a story about posters and slogans on ping pong balls — with no assessment of scale, and an assassination that the exiled, Kiev-appointed mayor claims was the work of partisans. This is not a serious argument for your claim about a resistance movement that would likely result in late-night curfews and a censorship regime, neither of which would likely be effective against a real resistance movement.
Maybe there is such a movement, but I see no evidence of it.
The most important tool I use to understand the war is the calendar. 20 months after the invasion the Ukrainians are still fighting one of the most formidable military super powers on earth. When a regime is unpopular, its military crumbles when attacked. No amount of military aid can create a will to resist or else Vietnam and Afghanistan would be US puppets. Given what I knew about Ukrainian and Russian history I believed Putin would lose. But I couldn’t be sure until a few months later when it became clear the Ukrainian resistance is holding together. After 20 months of resistance, the ultimate failure of Russia’s attempt to regain control over Ukraine is fiat accompli. Even if the Russians destroy the Ukrainian Army, the resistance will continue to get stronger and ultimately prevail unless Russia unleashes a holocaust level genocide. But on a cost/benefits basis a holocaust in Ukraine would severely damage Russia’s standing with BRICS and the global South. So eventually the Russians will get a government that will reluctantly leave Ukraine, just as the Israelis eventually had to leave Lebanon.
The most important tool I use is the body counts of people we’ve convinced to fight an unwinnable war whose real purpose is only to weaken Russia, a goal openly stated by more than a few in the west this past year.
How about the Easter Bunny or Santa Claus? Or perhaps the Tooth Fairy.
Well, first off, Russia is a “military superpower” only in that they possess a huge stockpile of nuclear weapons, which have been essentially irrelevant as far as this fighting is concerned. In conventional terms, Russia’s entire military budget for 2021 was $60.6BN, slightly less than the UKs at $61.5BN, and slightly more than France’s $56.8 BN, Germany at $51.3BN, and Japan at $50BN. See the International Institute for Strategic Studies, top 15 military budgets for 2021.
So that makes Russia at best a middling conventional power; being FAR outspent (over 4 to 1) by the european NATO members alone, and more than 12 to 1 by the USA.
As Russia has many other military commitments, and Ukraine has none, and Ukraine’s NATO help has so far been valued at over $200 BN, more than 3 times Russia’s 2021 total budget, this really has not been a David vs Goliath contest.
In fact, except for perhaps the first week or two, Ukraine has always outnumbered, usually by a large margin, the number of Russian troops in Ukraine.
I suspect Russia does FAR MORE with less than Ukraine, or europe, or certainly the USA does; but even so, they have done pretty well given the actual forces deployed.
Regarding “civil unrest”; when the fighting started, Russia had considerable support from the Ukrainian populace in Zaporizhia and Kherson; the only reason they reached Kherson City in the first place is that, despite a month or more of warning, NONE of the multitude of dikes and bridges needed to cross from Crimea to Kherson City were blown, or blocked, or damaged; they were all handed over intact. I don’t believe those sympathies have really changed. In any case, many millions of former residents have fled the country, and they will not be allowed back in a Russian administration, so hard to see where this “popular revolt” will come from.
With very rare exceptions, people hate occupying forces. A long term occupation builds the popular resistance that eventually defeats it. Just as the US imperialism was defeated in Vietnam by and Afghanistan, Russia imperialism has been defeated in Ukraine.
But they haven’t “been defeated” in Ukraine; they continue to hold most of 5 Oblasts, parts of a 6th (Kharkov Oblast), and are in fact gaining territory (the point of the original article) even while in a defensive posture this past year. And Ukraine is showing itself to be unable to change that, no matter how many resources (greater than the entire Russian military budget, as detailed by the Institute for International Military Studies) they receive.
Russia is paying a high price; but instead of a united, powerful Ukraine with a modern, western equipped army on its border, functioning as part of NATO, Russia now has a shrunken, depopulated, largely wrecked shambles of a country that can never join NATO (while it is at war; part of the NATO conditions for membership) and has created for itself a buffer zone out of the conquered territories. Not a “Win”, maybe, but not the “Loss” some people want to make it.
Grasping at straws.
Did ANTIFA AND BLM go there?
Jesus, you can’t be serious. It only takes a handful of dissidents or agents of Kiev to communicate militarily valuable info.
This says nothing really, about the general population in the East.
It’s a Chatty Skywalker doll. Pull the string in the abdomen and it says, over and over again, “Ukraine is fighting an asymmetric war of national resistance that the Russians have lost many months ago.”
And other Chatty dolls have been saying “the Ukrainian army is destroyed, it can’t last much longer” over and over for 18 months now.
Of the two conflicting statements, both are sketchy, but Skywalker’s is at least slightly more believable.
Well, Skywalker’s contributions are notable for the letter-perfect exactness of the copy-and-paste exercise. AI bots are more creative.
But you’re correct if you think the Ukrainian army can last for quite awhile longer. It can, if it abandons the reckless and foredoomed “counteroffensive” misadventures and hunkers down on defense. But that would mean accepting something like the current situation on the ground and giving up the hopeless idea that it can drive Russian forces from what was Ukrainian territory.
Ukraine’s sponsors and masters don’t want it to fall back on defense, of course. That wouldn’t fit their “weaken Russia” plans. So expect Ukraine to keep being wrecked and Ukrainians to be killed and maimed in horrendous numbers.
Ukraine is not going to win by throwing away troops against Russian defense lines in the South. US/NATO just want the war to continue. They don’t care about Ukrainian lives or even Ukrainian victory.
Ukraine will win by relying on asymmetric tactics, like the drone strikes on Crimea and into Russia. The Ukrainian resistance has proven to be resilient or else it would have crumbled in a few months.
Consider the outcome of Bakhmut. Prigozhin, claimed Ukraine killed 20,000 Russian regular troops and Wagner fighters in a bloodbath before the Russians took a totally destroyed city block by block. The Russians were never successful in encircling the Ukrainian forces who withdrew and continue to block further Russian advances. But the most significant result of the resistance in Bakhmut was the breakdown of the Russian military. As a direct result of the Ukrainian resistance, the Wagner Group was taken out of the war. Russia lost its most effective fighting force as the cost of taking Bakhmut. That was a big win for Ukraine and an example of how asymmetric wars are won by indigenous resistance.
Drone strikes are not “asymmetric warfare”; they are the old airpower enthusiast theories of how striking an opponents “centers of gravity” will defeat them without having to beat their army in the field. The problem with that is, Russia can hit Ukraine right back, more than 2 to 1, for every missile or drone Ukraine can beg from the west. So this isn’t Iraq, where the air force could pound Iraq’s centers of gravity for months to try and make them surrender; this is more like Hitler in a bunker in 1945 claiming his V2 rockets will force the allies to their knees as the allies correspondingly bomb his cities with thousand bomber raids every single day. The countereffect will be disproportionate. Is, in fact – just last night, Russia dropped over 15 bridges in Ukrainian held territory supplying the front. What did Ukraine achieve?
Consider Bakhmut Prigozhin said Russia lost 20,000 killed to take a bombed out city block by block before the Ukrainians retreated in good order because the Russians could not encircle them. The Ukrainians are still operating blocking any Russian advance and even threatening to encircle the Russians garrisoned in the ruined city. More significant, the Bakhmut debacle exposed weaknesses in the Russian supply chain, undermined morale and sparked an insurrection that resulted in removing Wagner from the war. Bakhmut was a big victory for Ukraine and an illustration of the effectiveness of asymmetric tactics. Russia lost their most effective PMC at Bathmut.
BTW, I originally thought the Ukrainians were making a tactical mistake by trying to hold a fixed position against Russia. But in the end at Bakhmut the Ukrainian strategy paid off.
You would be one of the very few who believe that, but ok. Most, including the western supporters, believe that Bakhmut was extremely costly to both sides. And Russia did take it in the end, despite the claims by Zelensky that Bakhmut would “never fall”, and his pouring of much of the Ukrainian reserves into the battle. But to your main point, Bakhmut had nothing to do with “asymmetry”; it was a conventional defense of a fortified city, like Verdun in ww1, or Sevastopol in ww2. And in the end, Russia won.
Your claims that Ukraine is “threatening” the Russians “garrisoned” in Bakhmut is a bit dubious; first, Russians did not “garrison” the ruins; why would they? They have forward defense elements there, as they do throughout the security zone, but their main strength is to the east of the city in the defensive belts; and yes, Ukraine continues to attack the flanks, with little real progress, and those attacks have been heavily criticized in the west for “dissipating offensive strength that should be used for the main drive in Zaporizhia”. Meanwhile, Russian offensive action, such as it has been, has been north of that, driving towards Kupiansk/Kharkov; and has actually been fairly successful, relative to the forces engaged – as the headline of this story notes, capturing considerably more ground that Ukraine has taken in the south.
I don’t pretend to know the current tactical situation in Bakjmut and I don’t believe you do. We can only rely on reports from biased sources.
But what I do know is the year long battle for Bakhmut inflicted heavy losses on the Russians that started a chain reaction of events that removed Russia’s most effective fighting force (Wagner) from the war. That is a big win for Ukraine and a big loss for Russia.
Again; you are welcome to believe as you choose. The question was about “asymmetry”; which from what I can see the battle for Bakhmut was definitely not an example of.
Asymmetry describes the nature of the conflict between invaders from powerful countries fighting indigenous defenders from weaker countries. The defenders use whatever tactics are available. For example, the Vietnamese communists had an air force and naval assets while the Taliban had to rely almost exclusively on guerrilla tactics.
But that does not apply here; where the Ukrainians have, for most of the conflict, outnumbered the russians, and the fighting has been “new age conventional”; that is, conventional main-force military tactics with the newly developed ISR technology improving targeting and lethality. This has not been “David vs Goliath”; and has not involved “guerilla warfare” to any meaningful degree.
Beyond the first weeks, the Russians have not attempted to go past the borders of the four oblasts. Your assessment of the relative strengths is based on the notion that the Russians do not possess the means to inflict massively more harm on their foes than they have. Asymmetric only applies when both sides choose to exercise it. So far, the Russians have held back from inflicting the damage they obviously can on Ukraine west of the lines.
But if they chose to do so, you would be hopping up and down re the Russian war crimes via attacks on the Ukrainian civilian populace.
Of course you endorse war crimes committed by Ukraine when they bomb civilians inside Russia, since their fighting for freedom and democracy and superior moral values, right?
“So far, the Russians have held back from inflicting the damage they obviously can on Ukraine west of the lines.”
Same was said about the US in Vietnam. In both cases the political costs of total war outweighed the benefits of a Pyrrhic tactical victory.
“you endorse war crimes committed by Ukraine”
My past posts on DISQUS are open for public viewing. I condemned war crimes committed by Ukrainians such as instances where Ukrainian soldiers executed Russian POW’s, the persecution of Russian Orthodox clergy. and the use of cluster munitions. I have never seen a major war where both sides did not commit atrocities.
I support Ukraine’s fight for self determination. But I don’t support war crimes when they are committed by Ukrainians or Russians. I recognize that the weight of evidence indicates the Ukrainians are probably responsible for the reckless shelling of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant just like the Russians are probably responsible for the destruction of the dam in Kherson. And I believe the ethnic Russians in Donbas and throughout Ukraine have legitimate grievances and that after the war there should be UN peacekeepers or some international authority with teeth in Ukraine to protect the ethnic Russians from persecution.
So no, I am not blind to war crimes by the side I support.
“
This isn’t Vietnam.
This.
Wrong. The two conflicting viewpoints are very sensitive to exactly when they were being voiced. So which scenarios apply to the chatty dolls?
The most important scenario is:
The Russian forces have now been trying, unsuccessfully, for 18 months now, to secure the Donbas.
And no, they haven’t been biding their time because REASONS. They’ve just been unable to get the job done.
And so far, there’s no sign of any impending miracle development to change that.
There are only two scenarios in asymmetric war when a big power invades a weaker country. The invader either wins quick or loses big. Russia did not win quick.
I get where your criteria are coming from, but I don’t buy them.
From a very practical point of view, the less civilian casualties there are, the fewer civilians lose homes, possessions, the smaller the eventual resentment can be (didn’t say will be), the less hostility across new borders could be.
Everything the Russians have done since they relocated to the East has been consistent with this view, IMO.
From a practical point of view, states don’t give a tinker’s damn about civilian casualties, home losses, etc.
That’s not unique to the Russians. NO state will drag out a six week war for 18 months out of concern for those things. States drag out six week wars for 18 months because they bit off more than they could chew and didn’t expect that to happen.
Too simplistic, as it takes no account of the reasons states get involved in conflict. In this case the Russians decided they would be fighting NATO at some point. It’s really that simple.
Just as the Aholes in the WH decided that they had to start a war with China pretty soon or they would likely get their behinds handed to them.
This seems like a preset talking point with a lot of cope.
https://www.other-news.info/nato-admits-that-ukraine-war-is-the-war-of-nato-expansion/
I agree.Putin’s futile war backfired and expanded and strengthened NATO.
“The fact…there is still a battlefield 20 months after a major power invaded means that the national resistance has popular support and will not quit until the invader leaves.”
1/ You do know that Ukraine has mandatory conscription, and criminal penalties for draft evaders, don’t you?
2/ You do know that Ukraine’s recruitment centers “corruption” firings was about pervasive bribing of military + hospital officials for service exemption – pointing up a lack of volunteers vs. when Russia invaded – don’t you?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/15/bribes-and-hiding-at-home-the-ukrainian-men-trying-to-avoid-conscription
3/ “Popular support”? How much “popular support”? Get back to me after you ask these women:
“In Lviv, a city in the West that has avoided serious shelling, wives and mothers …have protested, terrified about their husbands’ and sons’ deployment into combat in the East. To assuage concerns, a commander…met with about 200 women in a concert hall but the conversation devolved into screaming and crying, local media reported.” https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/01/world/europe/ukraine-russia-losses-east.html
4/ Upshot: Belief in Ukraine’s ‘fighting spirit’ lets people like you rationalize the terrible cruelty of the US’s newest, stalemated forever war – its rejection of a peace settlement, its ‘forever’ death and bereavement of young Ukrainian + Russian men and loved ones.
These are the same tired old neocon talking points that we have been hearing since the beginning of the conflict. The reality is that if Putin is deposed a more radical leader will emerge who will be much harder to deal with and much more anti-west.
The Neocons don’t understand asymmetric wars of national resistance any better than Putin. I am not expecting a pacifist to replace Putin. Ukraine would settle for a pragmatist who would withdraw from Ukraine for the good of the Russian nation. Kinda like DeGaulle ending the Algerian War or Nixon ending the Vietnam war. It will eventually happen. But it will take a long time.
The west has had their knives out against Russia since Paul the 1st. The time tested saying should be heeded. It’s better to face the devil you know than the devil you don’t.
The west has never got the desired outcome from a change in Russian leadership. And in these times, one could only ask and hope for a pragmatist but unfortunately a bigger warlord awaits behind door number 2.
This is not a war between the west and Russia. This is a war between Russia and Ukraine with the west supporting the Ukrainian side to hurt Russia.
If the Ukrainians give up, the war ends no matter what US/NATO wants.
Probably the US and NATO will eventually end or drastically curtail aid to Ukraine. If and when that happens the Ukrainian resistance will continue and ultimately the Russians will have to leave.
I support the Ukrainian fight for self determination. I do not support US/NATO. But I recognize that at the present time, US/NATO is backing the Ukrainians fighting for self determination. And US/NATO support can help hasten the Ukrainian victory.
Bullcrap. Words are cheap when you’re not ready to go there and fight with them.
Are you ready to fight for the Russians? C’mon. you’re just another old bozo bullshitting in the peanut gallery. Same as me.
“It doesn’t really matter who wins on the battlefield.”
Says it all for me – about the conflict – about your view of the value of the lives of these Ukrainians, many of whom are now conscripted souls being fed to the meat grinder – about you.
What a human specimen you must be.
Only the Ukrainians can decide whether to surrender or fight the Russian invaders. You could argue that the Vietnamese could have saved two million lives by agreeing to peace talks proposed by LBJ and Nixon. Or the Soviets could have saved millions of lives by making peace with the Nazi invaders. Old guys like us sitting in the peanut gallery, we observe, we don’t decide.
When a regime is unpopular, its military disintegrates when attacked and resistance crumbles. Examples are the well funded ARVN, the Afghan army and the Pakistani army that was viewed as an occupation force by the Bengalis when the Indians invaded East Pakistan in 1971.
I thought Putin was going to lose the war from the beginning. But I wasn’t sure until after a few months when I saw the Ukrainians were determined to resist. It is over now and eventually the Russians will leave. I hope the Russians leave soon. For the good of the Russian people as well as their Ukrainian victims.
Sorry, you can’t unsay what you said. I would never voluntarily associate with someone like you.
By ignoring how the war started, you make clear what you think about using someone else’s kids to fight for you.
You know perfectly well why we don’t have our people there. It’s because Americans don’t like to see their kids come home in body bags.
The white house is inhabited by cowards. It’s as simple as that.
No one is fighting for me in Ukraine. It is the Ukrainians who will surrender, fight or run away. It looks like a lot of them are standing up to the invaders. But they are not fighting for me. And they are not fighting for the US or NATO, but for their idea of independence. I wish them well
But they are fighting for you if you’re a taxpayer. If we hadn’t decided to follow the nitwit’s decision “for as long as it takes”, they wouldn’t be fighting, and a lot fewer Ukrainians would be dead or mutilated.
You are so full of crap, you sound like some high school kid.
I predict the US will cut aid to Ukraine either before or shortly after the 2024 election. That will be a setback for the Ukrinian resistance. But even if the Ukrainian army is defeated, the Ukrainian resistance will continue and escalate until the Russians leave. The chain reaction leading to the inevitable Russian defeat has already begun. In asymmetric wars the imperial invader either wins quick or loses big. We are 20 months past the invasion. Russia has not won yet. And now that the chain reaction has begun, the harder the Russians fight, the stronger the resistance becomes.
The best case scenario for Putin is for Russia to become an occupying power surrounded by hostile Ukrainians with the resistance getting stronger until the Russians give up and leave.
Hopefully you’ll join them.
Are your facile insults due to immaturity or dementia?
This success of the Ukrainian resistance is measured by the persistence of the resistance, not by gains in territory.
The success of the Russian liberation is measured by the number of dead Nazis, not by gains in territory.
🤣 Go ahead, pull the other one.
POPULAR SUPPORT! Hate capital letters, but please, get real. Zelenski and his close knit circle are tge most hated people in Ukraine, The major piwer as you put it has shown what it is made off, not allowing Zelenski and his amen corner commit genocide. The most bllatant coup in history resulted in most blatant genicide of Russian speaking population and Christian Orthodox believers. All open and nasty — bloody and cruel, And we are OK by that? We cry bitterly over invented human rights violations when it suit us, and cold bloodly ignore real tragedies.
Enough lecturing, enough fake concerns. Here, peopke of Ukraine, all of undesirable ethnic origin and faith are thrown deliberately into meat grinder. Lucky are the ones that are liberated by Russia. Will be late for others.
Whichever it ends, the clever perpetrators of this crime — Zelensmi and his admirers, have lost already. but are yet to grasp the enourmity of self delusion,
” asymmetric war of national resistance”
Sounds good if you’re a clueless idiot.
Who in the demented Biden administration is responsible for pushing the policy?
” But the Biden administration pushed for the assault anyway and rejected the idea of a ceasefire. ”
Did the deranged Biden do that or maybe Nuland, who signed the bottom line?
The buck stops with Biden, but he’s been a surefire rubber stamp for horrendous policies like this for virtually his entire career. Is he personally involved, in a major way, with formulating the policy? It hardly seems likely, does it?
It’s a good bet that Blinken, Nuland, Sullivan and the rest of the crazies who have been steering US foreign policy for more than 30 years are still effectively in charge.
According to the US Government and the ever-obsequious New York Times, the Ukraine war was “unprovoked,” the New York Times’ favorite adjective to describe the war. Putin, allegedly mistaking himself for Peter the Great, invaded Ukraine to recreate the Russian Empire.
yet just last week, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg committed a Washington gaffe, meaning that he accidentally blurted out the truth =
In testimony to the European Union Parliament, Stoltenberg made clear that it was America’s relentless push to enlarge NATO to Ukraine that was the real cause of the war and why it continues today.
https://www.other-news.info/nato-admits-that-ukraine-war-is-the-war-of-nato-expansion/
and if you look at the maps of this war you can see that Russia has pushed the edge of Ukraine quite a lot away from the border with Russia, which was probably Russia’s only real goal.
people let’s stop the war
yes, let’s
Let’s stop all the wars.
It has to be the people fighting who stop it. We can’t stop it for them.
The world’s response when two countries fight.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6bbc7de637facee840b567e84358c21a49257b769fde552bddd33a788bdc922a.jpg
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2023/09/no_author/people-are-dying-for-inches-in-ukraine-the-worlds-largest-arms-fair/
All Ukraine has to do is stop fighting and the war is over. Russia would probably even help them rebuild. The problem is the US is bribing the Ukrainian government to keep fighting in an effort to weaken Russia. The US is the world’s psychopath.
“Russia Has Gained More Territory This Year Than Ukraine NYT reports that despite nine months of heavy fighting, only about 500 square miles have changed hands in Ukraine this year”
Of course, in 2014 the entire country was gained by America through the overthrow of the elected government of Ukraine.
NATO has already lost; 482 Aircraft, 250 helicopters, 7252 UAV’s, 438 Anti Aircraft systems, 12210 tanks inc. APC’s, 1157 multiple rocket launchers, 6584 field artillery and 13590 military automotive equipment. Approx. $1 Trillion of NATO hardware.
WW3 started in 2014 according to NATO. The combined Western nations overthrew the government in a violent bloody coup and installed Nazi’s in power.
These people are monsters, parasites on humanity, total psychopaths.