Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggested on Sunday that the US was expecting more unrest in Russia following Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s two-day uprising.
“I think we’re in the midst of a moving picture. We haven’t seen the last act. We’re watching it very closely and carefully,” Blinken told CBS News on Sunday.
When asked if the US was in touch with Russia about the crisis, Blinken said he instructed his team to engage with Russia to ensure “they understood their responsibilities in terms of protecting our own personnel.” There’s no sign Blinken has attempted to speak with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov about the incident.
Blinken said Prigozhin’s dissent showed “real cracks” in Russia. “It was a direct challenge to Putin’s authority. So this raises profound questions. It shows real cracks. We can’t speculate or know exactly where that’s gonna go. We do know that Putin has a lot more to answer for in the weeks and months ahead,” he said.
French President Emmanuel Macron made similar comments on Sunday, saying the mutiny shows “the divisions that exist within the Russian camp, and the fragility of both its military and its auxillary forces.”
Macron said the crisis justifies Western support for Kyiv. “All this should make us very vigilant, and fully justifies the support that we are giving to the Ukrainians in their resistance,” he said.
Also on Sunday, President Biden spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about the situation in Russia. “Yesterday’s events exposed the weakness of Putin’s regime,” Zelensky said, according to a press release from his office.
The west sees everything as justification for the Ukraine proxy war, gloating over any hint of Ukraine’s tiny successes or Russian division. The costs, risks and pathological wishful thinking never disrupt our certainly of having been right all along to start the war and to keep escalating it. It’s sad to see it even from France, sometimes they have a glimmer of common sense.
Blinken lies like he breathes. The neocon “war by way of deception” will use this supposed coup as the pretext for a catastrophic war with Russia that will be the end of the USA, Russia, and most of humanity.
Only a matter of time, but I pray it will turn around before that happens. But, it’s up to the American and European populations to stop it from happening, but they’re too involved in denial and distractions to do anything to avoid the catastrophe.
And there’s no evidence that the American public even cares. Where are the anti-war protests? Where is the U.S. peace movement? We’re on the brink of nuclear war because the U.S. is trying to destroy its competitor Russia, and we get crickets.
There are protests in Europe since they will be the ones to suffer first: https://duckduckgo.com/?t=lm&q=antiwar+protests+in+Europe&ia=news
We haven’t seen the last act, because Blinken et al are still furiously writing the script.
there is the reality right there
Yes … keep in mind, though, what Mike Tyson said: “everyone has a plan until you get punched in the face”
Every report of our MSM was drenched in the hope that Prigozhin would oust Putin. That did not happen because it was apparently never Prigozhin’s objective. Consider his experiences for governance: Jail-bird, hot-dog seller, commander of a rag-tag army. So what was it? I can only guess. He must have seen the horrors of warfare. Perhaps he wanted to end it somehow. Antiwar?
And why is that gang named “Wagner”. That is not a Russian but a German name.
It is named after the call sign for (one of) its creator Dmitry Utkin – you know the guy with the Nazi tattoos.
https://www.francetvinfo.fr/monde/europe/manifestations-en-ukraine/enquete-guerre-en-ukraine-dmitry-utkin-le-tortionnaire-de-wagner_5831285.html
Thanks!
Wagner was chosen in response to the
Mozart Group, which is a private military company operating in Ukraine during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Mozart group was composed of Western volunteers with military experience and provided military
training. Strange they would use Mozart since he was Jewish and the Ukraine forces are neo-Nazi. Isn’t humanity full of contradictions?
No the Wagner group had it name already in 2014 – so you are just misinformed.
https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/Documents/issues/Mercenaries/WG/OtherStakeholders/ukrainian-hhru-submission-2.pdf
So it was the other way around. Anyway the rest of my comment stands.
No I’m afraid the rest is also at least partially very mis informed:
1) Mozart was not Jewish https://jewishjournal.com/culture/arts/music/12568/
2) The name of the group was chosen as a witty reference and counterpoint to the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, both groups thus being named for German-speaking composers.
3) It is not strange that they could have chosen the name of a Jew (even though that was not what they did), because it is not true that the Ukrainian forces are neo-Nazi. As Prigozhin have actually repeatedly been telling you.
4) so this is not a case of showing that: humanity full of contradictions.
Now tell me which parts of your comment still stands!?
Links from Jerusalem post: https://duckduckgo.com/?t=lm&q=ukraine+neo+nazis+jerusalem+post&ia=web
Sure there are neo-Nazi fighters in Ukraine, that is not the same as saying that the Ukrainian forces are neo-nazis, if so then the Russians are also neo-Nazies:
https://www.latrobe.edu.au/news/articles/2022/opinion/russias-long-history-of-neo-nazis
https://ukraineworld.org/articles/infowatch/russian-neo-nazi
https://www.euronews.com/2023/04/13/when-russia-calls-others-nazis-it-should-be-taking-a-hard-look-at-itself
https://www.cidob.org/en/publications/publication_series/notes_internacionals/n1_128_russia_for_russians/russia_for_russians_ultranationalism_and_xenophobia_in_russia_from_marginality_to_state_promoted_philosophy
https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-neo-nazis-fighting-ukraine/31871760.html
Are you claiming that the Russian forces are also neo-Nazis, otherwise how do you think that showing that there are some neo-Nazis in Ukraine shows that: “…the Ukraine forces are neo-Nazi“?
I stand corrected. The old info was he was of Jewish descent. But, I still believe Ukraine forces are neo-Nazi no matter what you say. Here’s links from the Jerusalem post. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=neo+nazi+forces+in+Ukraine+jerusalem+post&t=lm&ia=news
And here are some from the Jerusalem Post about Russian Nazis, or do you ignore them?
?Why Russia thought its ‘Nazi’ claims would be convincing – analysis
Russian Jews need to flee before they are made scapegoats for Putin’s war – opinion
Flip flops are very common when your enemie.s enemy is your friend, especially in the middle east.
Prizoghin understands the depth of the Ukrainian resistance to the Russian invasion. While he believes in Putin’s cause, he has spoken with respect for his Ukrainian adversaries who he understands are motivated by patriotism. Prizoghin has said that to win in Ukraine Russia would need a total mobilization for full scale war and martial law throughout Russia. He understands that the Ukrainian resistance is not a fringe of Nazi lunatics, but a national resistance movement with deep roots.He reminds me of the right wing General DeGaulle who came to realize that France could not win the Algerian War.
Oh please, send your script to Hollywood. He was pissed off that wagner had to sign contracts integrating them into the Russian military.
The contracts came after Prizoghin started publicly criticizing the MoD. Prizoghin saw the strength of the Ukrainian resistance and believes that Russia either needs to commit to total war or withdraw.
Nope.
That’s true. Here’s the latest in Mr. P’s own words: https://www.aol.com/news/russias-prigozhin-own-words-mutiny-162102864.html
Here’s the latest on that in Mr. P’s own words: https://www.aol.com/news/russias-prigozhin-own-words-mutiny-162102864.html
“Yesterday’s events exposed the weakness of Putin’s regime,” Zelensky said,
really. an alleged massive coup was allegedly nipped in the bud in a matter of two days and the alleged coupsters were allegedly sent back to work and the alleged coup mastermind was allegedly exiled to territory that Russia has allegedly “annexed” ?
doesn’t seem like Putin’s “regime” is showing any alleged weakness here.
fun-fact = any time the word “regime” is used to describe an “enemy”, you can pretty much determine who has the ulterior agenda.
“fun-fact = any time the word “regime” is used to describe an “enemy”, you can pretty much determine who has the ulterior agenda.”
In his case, yes. But they are all regimes. And by all, I mean all. Biden, Macron Xi , Kim………
“Yesterday’s events exposed the weakness of Putin’s regime,” Zelensky said.”
Odd that the clown doesn’t say what weakness he alludes Putin is experiencing from this Pregozhin melt down. Are his troops deserting, do his bombs have less blast, are his hypersonic missiles slowing down, are his artillery enplacements more exposed..????? Just HOW has he been weakened…????? I believe Putins swift & decisive action and his propitious outcome only shows what an excellent leader he truly is even in the most trying wartime situations which can arise. It is strong evidence of Putin’s management and ability to quickly solve the most difficult and dangerous problems as the whole world watches!!!!!!!
You are right on the money!
He is right on a pike of sh!t
Could it be the simple fact that one of the best units have shown dubious loyalty?
Best units, or leader of one of the best units. Size matters.
Large scale mutinies happen when armies are losing wars. Putin called the Wagner revolt treason and promised to punish the perpetrators. A day later he granted amnesty to the rebels and let Prizoghin go into exile.
A top military leader called Putin’s justification for the war “lies.” The Russian army and the Russian nation witnessed the revolt. The Wagner revolt will likely be a watershed moment that will energize the Russian antiwar movement like the 1968 Tet offensive began the process of turning American public opinion around on the Vietnam war.
Here is a video of Wagner troops being cheered as they leave Rostov-on-Don. This video does not look staged.It shows that Putin has serious problems.
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-66012353
In Global Times Chinese commentators are saying that at a minimum the Wagner revolt probably will prevent Russia from launching a major offensive in Ukraine any time soon.
Information war
“Are his troops deserting, do his bombs have less blast, are his hypersonic missiles slowing down, are his artillery emplacements more exposed..????? Just HOW has he been weakened…?????”
There is the inescapable reality of the battlefield, pitted against this is the information war.
Information war has its limits — cf Baghdad Bob and Juan Guaidó.
You probably should include yourself along with those two.
So, you believe that an attempted coup during a war (sorry, SMO) is good for a leader. You’ve got a lot of Copium running through your veins today.
Ukraine got tanks accross the Dnipro while the Russians were sorting out their family troubles. (You probably think that’s good for Putin too.)
Blinken, Macron, Nuland . All salivating thinking of Putin’s fall
You know, I’m just failing to see how a “mutiny” in which no one died on either side, in which no one was arrested, in which no one’s allegiance switched sides is anything be a giant nothing burger.
Spot on. The would-be warlord, Prigozhin, is sent into exile, Wagnerites are back in their barracks, and the Russian people are applauding Putin’s negotiating skills, all in a matter of hours. Only our illustrious MSM is making a big deal out of this nothingburger.
A military force announced it was marching to Moscow and advanced 500 miles across Russian soil in a single day, with the regular armed forces either unable or unwilling to stop it from doing so.
If you think that’s a “nothingburger,” look up the last time anything even remotely like it happened. The name for it was “Barbarossa.”
“Barbarossa was the largest military operation in history – more men, tanks, guns and aircraft were deployed than in any other offensive. The invasion opened the Eastern Front, the war’s largest theater, which saw clashes of unprecedented violence and destruction for four years and killed over 26 million Soviet people, including about 8.6 million Red Army soldiers. More died fighting on the Eastern Front than in all other fighting across the globe during World War II. Damage to both the economy and landscape was enormous, as approximately 1,710 Soviet towns and 70,000 villages were razed. (Wikipedia)
Exactly.
This last weekend was the first time since then that an armed force has aimed at Moscow and made significant progress across Russian soil. And it got a lot further in one day than Barbarossa did in one month, even though it was a tiny fraction of the size and power of the Third Reich’s forces in Barbarossa.
If you think that’s a “nothingburger,” then that thing you’re doing that you think is thinking isn’t.
It’s a nothing burger. It’s irrelevant that they “made significant progress across russian soil”. Nobody cares how many troops cross how many miles of ground if 1) that ground does not actually change hands, 2) it doesn’t cost anything of either side. 3) the stated intention of the soldiers doing the marching is not to make war with the people they’re marching against!
If there was something spectacular about troops moving, you must conclude every day logistics is quite remarkable.
The only way in which this is different than every day logistics is that it was disobedient. But they had no malicious intent, and no one died. It’s much much more similar to every day logistics than barbarossa.
I’m very surprised you keep bring it back to barbarossa, given how obviously pathetic this march was compared to barbarossa. You’d have better success making the case that this isn’t a nothing burger if you just emphasized how many and how large the disobedience was without any comparison to anything so obviously on a different scale, with different intent, over a different time frame. The fact it was disobedient is the only thing spectacular about it. Other than that? nothing. Hence, nothing burger.
The Russian verdict on World War II was “the next war will NOT be fought on Russian soil.”
Not being able to keep that promise is a major problem. And the people who were suppose to keep it now have to explain why they just had thousands of troops rampaging across Russian soil, threatening Moscow, and that topping off months of Ukrainian pin-pricks on Russian soil as well.
Some prominent heads are going to have to roll. I’m betting that Putin’s won’t be one of them. And I suspect he was behind the whole thing for the express purpose of getting a great excuse to roll said heads, and to blame them for things above and beyond the non-nothingburger that will be the technical grounds for rolling them.
“rampaging” accross russian soil?
You’re going to have a hard time calling it a rampage when both sides agree no one died. Where was the violence? Who died? What tanks were blown up? what missile silos destroyed? Where is the wake of chaos behind them?
and “threatening Moscow”? Indeed, they were marching on Moscow. But by Prigozhin’s own account he had no intention of deposing putin or “taking control” of the city.
This is quite a different matter entirely. The fact you have to put a dubious connection between the two to inflate the relevance of Prigozhin’s march is telling. Do you have evidence to suggest they were related? Was Zalenskyy paying off Prigozhin? or was he in cahoots with the US or NATO? If not, I fail to see how this is relevant.
Perhaps you’re right about this, just like americans demanded a punishment for the events of Jan. 6th, though that was even more of a nothing burger, and all the people they’ve rounded up did little more than attend.
Ah. Perhaps. But if so, then this was a nothing burger in regards to anything the west wants to believe it was, and indeed was designed to be a nothing burger by putin, who would have no reason to actually risk any life or equipment or control at all.
“both sides agree no one died”
If both sides are telling the truth, then the real news is that Russian helicopters and airplanes are now all remotely piloted.
You are correct. The initial reports that no one got hurt were incorrect. Prigozhin has admitted to shooting the pilots in a helicopter.
That’s still a far cry short of barbarossa.
I was very clear on what the comparison to Barbarossa was: Troops advancing across Russian soil toward Moscow, with claimed hostile intent of some type, and MUCH faster than Hitler’s troops were able to.
That’s a far cry more than a nothingburger.
Sure, but now you’re making a different claim. I was also very clear about what I meant by “nothing burger”, and it wasn’t that a large group of troops disobeyed orders. It was that this was not evidence of what most people in the media are claiming it is evidence of. This is not evidence of putin’s weakness. It is not evidence of “chaos in russia”. It is not a coup. It’s a nothing burger.
If you wish to contradict me because you dislike my definition, then you’re making a semantic argument and that’s pointless. Sure, this event has significance. But it doesn’t have the significance other people are claiming.
I personally don’t think it’s a sign of Putin’s weakness, because I personally think it was an exercise of his strength. Opinions in the western media seem to vary on that question.
It certainly wasn’t a “coup,” nor was it framed as one. Prigozhin proclaimed that he was coming for Shoigu, and that he was doing so basically in defense of Putin, who had been fooled, etc. A coup doesn’t rumble in loudly from hundreds of miles away proclaiming a cause. A coup is a sudden takeover of key installations, arrests and/or killing of key officials, etc., and the supposed cause is explained afterward.
Interesting … if this report is true, it’s hardliner heads that are rolling, including Surovikin’s.
Barbarossa was different than this in many ways. 1) Hitler’s expressed intention was to wage a “war of annihilation”. I have yet to see evidence that prigozhin even intended to remove Putin from power, as opposed to simply forcing him to fire certain generals he’s long had beef with. 2) the Nazis actually fought battles with the Russians, with massive casualties on both sides. While there have been images of shots fired, both prigozhin and Putin claim there was little too no blood shed. 3) the Nazis invaded in 22 June and continued fighting into the winter. This March lasted 2 days.
Sounds like a nothing burger to me.
Yes, Barbarossa was different from this in many ways.
It’s the one way in which it was similar — a substantial armed force waging war on Russian soil, against the Russian armed forces, in a drive on Moscow, for the first time in eight decades — that makes it not a “nothingburger.”
Jesus, every bombing of a car or in a bar, or flying of a drone near the Kremlin, or bombing of a bridge in Crimea is touted as a massive “provocation” and “escalation” by exactly the same people treating this as “move along, nothing to see here.”
Is it reasonable to muse that it may not have been what it seemed? Sure. I would not be at all surprised, for example, if Prigozhin was following orders direct from Putin for the express purpose of dragging Shoigu’s and Gerasimov’s incompetence out into the open as a prelude to their removal and disgrace. But that wouldn’t make it a “nothingburger.”
I suppose it’s not a “nothing burger” in the sense that it has very serious implications for the country. But it is not nearly as big a deal as the west is making it out to be, nor does it prove what the west is claiming it proves. And in that sense it is still a nothing burger.
If I told you I was buying you the largest mansion in New York city, and then ended up giving you a cottage, you’d probably call it a nothing burger, never mind the fact that cottages cost a quarter million dollars these days, and a quarter million dollars is no gift to scoff at.
Barbarossa was a massive conflict. By comparison, this march was extremely mild. If you promised me Barbarossa and I got this conflict, I’m willing to call it a nothing burger.
“The west” seems conflicted on what it all means, although the consensus from that quarter seems to be that it “weakens” Putin.
Personally, I think it “strengthens” Putin, if he plays his cards right. And I suspect he stacked the deck in the first place such that in the near future, we’ll start seeing seeing the blame parceled out with several militarily incompetent and politically inconvenient heads rolling. And I suspect that will be the case whether he is making the wise decision to get out from under the Ukraine fiasco, or the foolish decision to double down on it. Either way, there are people he can’t afford to have in charge militarily or regarded as credible alternatives to himself politically.
I don’t think putin can just “get out from under the Ukraine fiasco” unless he actually leaves crimea, donbas, and start paying reparations. At this point, I don’t think it’s possible to go back to the tense peace of jan 2022. Now that the war has started, if putin attempted to go back there, Ukraine would simply try invading Crimea.
Given Ukraine’s stance on negotiating, Putin must either completely give up lands he is perfectly capable of defending and has no chance of losing except in extremely generous negotiations, or he must continue fighting until Ukraine’s standards for negotiating drop lower.
I mean, imagine if Russia tried to take a middle road. Suppose they said “we’re not going to try and conquer any more land; We’re only going to hold onto the land we have”. Ukraine would continue fighting, no matter where that line was, all the way into crimea and perhaps even into russia too. The only difference is, Russia wouldn’t be making use of fixing operations, and all battles would be staged battles with Ukraine choosing the staging. That’s not an option. He must either continue pressing the offensive, or completely retreat, even from crimea.
Just from a realistic perspective, there is no way Russia lets up. Also from a realistic perspective, there is a way Ukraine lets up, and that is if they realize the war is at a stale mate, and they can either accept this border now, or they can accept a border that is very slightly different later with an extra hundred thousand dead on either side.
I doubt the Ukrainians are stupid enough to think they can take Crimea. That talk is for propaganda purposes, and also to position themselves as “giving” something in any eventual negotiations. The land approaches to Crimea are too defensible, and the Russians have naval supremacy on the Black Sea approaches.
From a realistic perspective, the Russians can probably secure Donetsk and Luhansk, might manage to secure a land corridor connecting them to Crimea, and stand almost no chance whatsoever of either losing Crimea or keeping Kherson and Zaporizhia. It’s really just a matter of which side gets worn out first, and with an economy a tiny fraction of the size of the economies backing Ukraine, it’s hard to see how that’s not going to be Russia.
It is very easy to see how Russia can do this.
1) Ukraine’s “Backers” are supplying equipment and intel, not men. You can have all the planes and tanks and drones and missiles to take land, but then you need men to keep it. Russia simply has more men.
2) Ukraine’s “Backers” are only willing to supply a very small fraction of their GDPs to the fight.
3) Ukraine’s “Backers” have a history of getting very fed up with wars and ultimately abandoning the pursuit. (See Vietnam and Afghanistan). The two most prominent republican candidates have both come out in support of a negotiated end to the Ukrainian crisis, and a democrat candidate too! (of course, RFK has no chance of winning a primary, given the DNC, but it’s besides the point. Point is, many americans even on the left are tired of war).
Russia doesn’t have to fight the entire industrial capacity of america and europe. Industrial capacity was never going to be the limiting factor in the west. The limiting factor was always going to be the political will.
As to whether the Ukrainians are stupid enough to attempt to take crimea… It seems they were stupid enough to have men in the meat grinder that was bakhmut when US intelligence was begging them not to. I put nothing past them.
“It seems they were stupid enough to have men in the meat grinder that was bakhmut”
The Bakhmut where they probably inflicted two to three times as many casualties as they took, forced their opponents to use up a lot of scarce artillery ammo, and delayed the Russian effort to secure Donetsk by eight months? That Bakhmut there?
Odd you would be so confident in your numbers when wikipedia, notoriously liberal leaning, does not even claim that’s believable.
but yes, if Ukraine always tells the truth and russia always lies, then there were significantly more casualties in bakhmut on the russian side. Big if.
Yes, because “probably had a casualty ratio typical of defending long-prepared positions in an urban environment” is soooooooooooooooooooo “confident.”
We don’t know the actual numbers. The ratio I’m citing is a matter of probability based on history.
Could I be wrong? Of course.
And yes, I’m aware that the Russian line was “oh, we meant to spend eight fucking months trying to take this thing, it really would have been easy to just walk in, but we wanted to lure more of them into our MEAT GRINDER.”
Maybe that’s true. And maybe all of Vince Ofer’s marketing claims about the ShamWow! and Slap Chop were all 100% true, too. Anything’s possible.
You know Thomas, you’re usually much more respectful than this. This is really sad coming from you.
I haven’t claimed that russia “meant” to take eight months. Nor have I claimed it was smart on russia’s part. I don’t think putin’s playing 5-d chess here.
My claim was this and only this: That the US told Ukraine their soldiers would be more useful elsewhere, that Ukraine did suffer very high causualties (regardless of whether they also inflicted very high casualties), and that this probably was not outside the range of normal casualties for an offensive move. And most importantly, that it was not a smart move on Ukraine’s part. Might I not know all the details why? sure. But the US government agrees with me, as they advised Ukraine to give up on Bakhmut.
I mean, do you really think I’m just a putin apologist? that I called Bakhmut a meat grinder because “yay those russians were so smart to kill all those Ukrainians!”, instead of, I dunno, because the new york times called it a meat grinder to, for both sides?
Don’t go putting other claims on me that I never made. And please be a little more respectful.
How do you know what the US was telling Ukraine (as opposed to what the US was telling US it was telling Ukraine)?
Both sides invested a lot in Bakhmut, and both sides had good reasons to do so. It’s a key possession when it comes to control of Donetsk in general. Which the Russians want very much and the Ukrainians very much want the Russians to not have. And more importantly, the Ukrainians were playing for TIME.
I do tend to think the Russians are making a mistake to the extent that they are treating this as a war of manpower attrition. It’s really more a war of consumables attrition — the side that runs out of artillery rounds, anti-tank missiles, SAMs, etc. first is the side that will end up having to concede at least some of its objectives.
The Ukrainian strategy seems to be “drag this thing out as much as possible so that the gigantic industrial capacities of our supporters eventually leaves us still well-supplied, while the Russian need for those consumables outruns that country’s comparatively tiny industrial capacity.
As for my respectfulness level, I apologize and I’ll work on it … but after three decades of arguing with people on the Internet, it’s pretty much worn down to the nub.
Jan 6, if you don’t insist on a body count.
What happened on January 6 in Russia?
Glad you asked.
Turns out, in Russia on January 6, they were saying the exact same thing about the west that the west is saying about Prighozin’s march.
And that might be an apt comparison, given the nothingburger jan 6th was, compared to what the media promised it was.
Oh, I forgot to say that our limited-hangout alternative media is also making a big deal about nothing.
They weren’t marching they were riding and riding on a freeway with a very limited number of Wagner forces that followed him (if he was in the lead), posed no danger to Moscow at that point. If he had not agreed to what was offered and headed to Belarus, they would have all been slaughtered. The loyal Russians in the Wagner forces have been offered contracts in the Russian Armed Forces. Plus from Rostov-on-Don to Moscow is 600 miles and no harm was done on the first 400 miles before they stopped. Talking is always better than Killing and that’s what happened. Russia’s highway police should have stopped them for speeding too.
Maybe they would have been slaughtered, maybe they wouldn’t have.
For that first 24 hours, one of two things is true:
* The regular armed forces were unable to stop them, or
* The regular armed forces chose not to stop them.
If the latter, there could be any number of explanations. One could be that Putin wanted to calm the waters. Another could be that Shoigu was afraid to give the order to stop them because he was afraid that order would be disobeyed. And still another was that Shoigu did give the order and was told “sorry, you’re breaking up, there’s a lot of static on the line …”
A road march is a march. Did you think the Third Reich’s troops were all dismounted infantry or something?
If a significant number of his men went to Belarus with him, just look at the map. He and his men would flank Kiev, and along the line protecting the communities in Donbas. Was this a false flag, to “stop the music” of war long enough for this to happen?
What makes you think there aren’t already plenty of troops in Belarus for any move on Kiev, etc.? There are already Russian troops there, more started moving in at the beginning of this year, and Lukashenko has both expanded the regular army and created a 200,000-troop militia force over the last year.
Or, they weren’t given the order(s) to stop them.
They weren’t dismounted because to dismount you have to be mounted in the first place.
I just don’t understand why you insist that this is not a nothing burger, when one of your options is that both sides willingly chose not to fight with each other at their leaders’ commands.
I have no idea how many troops putin had at his disposal, or where they were. So I have no idea whether Shoigu was unable or unwilling to fight prigozhin. But I suspect the latter. Why?
I don’t know anything about military tactics, but I do know that everyone says 3:1 is the magic ratio for offense to defense. Russia’s millitary is 1.15 million men and 2 million in reserves. Prigozhin had 25 thousand men. I’m no genius mathematician, but that’s more than 3:1.
And I have no idea where Shoigu’s men were, but I do know a very large portion of them were probably in ukraine. And Prigozhin’s march started southeast of Ukraine and Moscow is northeast of Ukraine. So it seems the men could have probably intervened in time.
And I have no idea how many men are really needed to defend an entrenched line in Ukraine. But again, I do know the magic 3:1 ratio everyone says, and I do know that with the size of russia’s military, it seems there were enough men to have a 3:1 advantage against Prigozhin’s men, and still have much more than a l:3 defense against Ukraine.
Considering all this, I feel it’s safe to say, the lack of a conflict was a choice on russia’s part (whether Shoigu’s choice or someone else lower in command, who knows. but it was clearly a choice).
Yes, the regular army had plenty of troops to defeat Wagner.
But it doesn’t seem to have tried to do so.
Did it not try to do so because it was ordered not to try to do so? If so, by whom?
Did it not try to do so in spite of being ordered to do so? If so, what does that portend the next time it gets orders it doesn’t like?
If you don’t think tens of thousands of troops making their way hundreds of kilometers across Russia in open defiance of public orders, stopping only on the basis of a supposedly negotiated deal with an intervening extra-national political figure (albeit a Russian satrap) rather than by being found, fixed, and finished by the national defense force is a something-burger, that thing you’re doing that think is thinking isn’t.
That’s nice. But again, you’ve failed to address the actual substance of the argument. When this event is being sold as a coup against putin and upon closer inspection it is totally meaningless (in that regard), I call it a nothing burger. Doesn’t matter if it’s meaningful in some other regard. Its a nothing burger. They’re selling us a 3 course buffet, and we’re getting a nothing burger. What we’re getting is nothing like what they’re selling, even if it’s very much like some totally different thing.
I get google news on my phone and the propaganda is so pervasive, and there’s no links to any other sources that don’t tow the Wash. B.S. line. Check this out on Reason: https://reason.com/2023/06/26/anticlimactic-end-to-wagner-groups-armed-rebellion-in-russia/
This is what happens when mercenaries are used. Same thing happened when Rome used the German tribes as their mercenaries and they turned on Rome.
Truer statement has not come out of US official yet — we have not seen the last act in Ukraine.
I was wondering why did Russia — Putin included — make such a prominent issue over Prigozhin melt-down. Now I get
Prigozhin was known for his over the top behavior forever. He is a classic narcissist who believes in his abilties, while underneath harboring insecurities, As a face of private ownership of Wagner (not the only private investor in addition to public investment) he basked in attention, But it became problematic with many foreign clients a while ago.
He is a classic football club owner who overrides coaches, and assumes knowledge he does not posses. Bakhmut was the operation where Russian military gave him the opportunity to demonstrate his credentials. He override his commanders, some quit. His main beef initially was with Chechen volunteers who took early initiatives in Lughansk. He characteristically could not keep disagreements private. Be was always right, others stupid. His brash style got him some admirers.
In Bakhmut his shortcomings became an obstacle to coordinatin with military commanders in conducting artillery strikes and close air support. His eratic decision style now had real consequences. But be blamed everyone, up to the top of command chain.
After Bakhmut he was given options to bow out gracefully and with an ugly win, but a win behind him.
His ego got better of him, and he was to show everyone just how he is real mad — expecting support , On his way to Moscow to tell them all how mad he was, not a single comander or an officer followed him.
The very public fuss was made to desl with three things. First, remove golden parachute for Prigozhin, and eliminate his furter medling in Wagner operations. Second, to provide full transparency and prevent Western officials calling it a cover up, giving it more ominous meaning and confusing public. And third, I am assuming, would be to flush out any opportunistic foreign intellugence schema in the works.
In the meantime, counteroffensive is still on. Prigozhin provided some comic relief. And the illustrious example of how an obsession with one’s greatness blossoms into Hubris and in the process nurtures his own self-destructive Nemesis. And makes one wonder. How is it possible in a supposedly authoritarian state for such characters to blossom?
Tough guy Blinken thought this crisis justified a lecture to remind the Russians that “it is their responsibility to protect OUR people.” I understand that our counterparts delivered this demand to the stalls of the executive lavatory, where the paper could be put to good use.
Blinken and ilk better worry about their own backyard. “I’m as mad as hell, and I’m not going to take this anymore!” may become a reality soon.
I am not a crass person. However, f*ck Blinken raw!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Macron said the crisis justifies Western support for Kyiv. “All this should make us very vigilant, and fully justifies the support that we are giving to the Ukrainians in their resistance,” he said.
Macron’s back to kissing ass. He can’t seem to make up his mind. And how in the fuck does “this” justify the support for Ukrainian resistance? Or did he mean, since the counteroffensive isn’t going very well, we have to shift the focus away from that? If they weren’t going to keep the aid flowing one way, they had to do it another way.
The counteroffensive is accomplishing what it needs to. The Russians are frozen in defensive positions but unable to provide security in the territory they occupy. In an asymmetric war of national resistance the invader needs to (i) conquer (i.e. defeat the Ukrainian army); (ii) occupy (i.e. control territory and defeat the resistance) and (iii) pacify (i.e., establish civil society in the occupied territory and win the hearts and minds or at least the acquiescence of the occupied population), The indigenous Ukrainians don’t need military victories to win the war. The indigenous defender needs to survive and to continue to resist either as an organized army or a guerrilla force. The real story is that hunkered down in defensive positions, the Russians have failed to establish security or stability in the occupied territories. They have even failed to occupy all the territory they claim to have annexed.
It doesn’t matter whether Russians or Ukrainians destroyed the Kakhovka Dam. The destruction of the dam proves that Russia failed to provide security for the people of Kherson it claims to be liberating. The invasion failed and the Russian defensive strategy is as futile as the US strategy of fortifying villages in Vietnam and Afghanistan.
The Ukrainians are wisely avoiding suicidal large scale frontal assaults on Russia’s heavily fortified positions. By maintaining the pressure they are preventing Russia from consolidating its hold on the occupied territories by lifting martial law and establishing real civil society. Prizoghin’s recent mutiny is proof that the Ukrainian resistance is succeeding in creating fissures in Russia’s leadership. In the long run support for Putin and his hopeless war will ebb and Russians will demand an end to the war.
Unless more aid is forthcoming, the counteroffensive hasn’t accomplished shit. Nothing you said is any different than when the counteroffensive started. You talk as though being prepared for the counteroffensive, which Russia obviously was, is somehow a sign of weakness.
“Prizoghin’s recent mutiny is proof that the Ukrainian resistance is succeeding in creating fissures in Russia’s leadership.”
Bullshit.
The invasion was a mistake. Putin lost when Russian troops crossed the border. It doesn’t really matter what happens on the battlefield. As long as there is a battlefield, Ukraine is winning. If US cuts its aid, it will take longer for Ukraine to win. But Russia can’t win.
The only winners, if they do win, are the oligarchs and politicians who want to destroy Russia for their own greedy purposes. But, that won’t happen either. In war there are only losers.
The overthrow of the Ukrainian Democracy and replacing it with a Nazi-infatuated Regime, meant Ukraine lost and so did all the lives that have lost.
“We haven’t seen the last act.”
Why? Did you pay for more?
If you seriously believe Prigozhin is going to ride off into the Belarusian sunset with no further consequences or ambitions, you’re not only in a state of denial, you’re building a house there.
They may give him the same choice they gave Roehm or Rommel.
Putin just made a brief statement today, Monday, in which he said “they” tried to do this after “their” counteroffensive failed. He did not say if he meant just Ukraine, or NATO.
However, HE said HE thinks it was a regime change effort. Maybe he really does believe that, because he appeared quite angry when saying it. Uncharacteristically so, for a man who makes it a point to seem calm.
Blinken may be right, we have not “seen the last act” of this.
Hmmm
Billions of roubles: Prigozhin claims Russian forces have found a van and 2 buses containing boxes of his money
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group Private Military Company, has confirmed that Russian security forces have found boxes full of money near his office in St Petersburg. Russian media reported that the boxes contain a total of 4 billion roubles (approximately US$47 million).
Details: Fontanka reported that a Gazel minivan stuffed full of boxes containing money was found near Prigozhin’s office, in the courtyard of the Trezzini Hotel in St Petersburg.
According to Fontanka, Prigozhin is believed to have his office in the Trezzini Hotel. During a search conducted in the hotel, the white Gazel minivan aroused suspicion as it did not belong to anyone living in Akademichesky Lane [the street where the van was parked – ed.]. The van was checked for explosives; when it was unlocked, boxes stuffed with money were found inside.
When the money contained inside the boxes found in the Gazel van was counted, the total was 4 billion roubles in cash (approximately US$47 million).
After this information was shared, Prigozhin issued a statement saying that in addition to the Gazel van, another two minibuses containing his money were also found.
“It wasn’t just the Gazel that was found, but two other minibuses that contained money earmarked for wages, compensation for Cargo 200s [unofficial code for bodies of fighters killed in action – ed.], and other things,” Prigozhin said.
He also claimed that during its 10 years in business, Wagner Group has always used cash for all payments
https://news.yahoo.com/billions-roubles-prigozhin-claims-russian-124613179.html
JUST IN: MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Monday, in his first public comments since ending a one-day mutiny by his Wagner force on Saturday, that it had been intended to register a protest over the ineffectual conduct of the war in Ukraine, not to overthrow the government in Moscow. https://www.aol.com/news/russias-prigozhin-own-words-mutiny-162102864.html
And, he is right. Putin is trying to be the nice guy, but is causing more and more casualties on both sides. Is that the plan? some say it is for nefarious policies coming out of the middle east.
How about air dropping Blinken over the combat zone, you know, give him a heads up.