China’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, was in Ukraine on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss the prospect of peace talks and met with senior Ukrainian officials, including Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and President Volodymyr Zelensky.
According to the Ukrainian side, Kuleba told Li that Ukraine won’t agree to any deal that cedes territory to Russia. Kuleba “emphasized that Ukraine does not accept any proposals that would involve the loss of its territories or the freezing of the conflict.”
Ukraine and Russia are extremely far apart in their demands for a settlement. Kyiv wants Russia to withdraw from all the territory it has captured since launching the invasion last year and Crimea before talks can even happen. For their part, Moscow wants any peace deal to recognize the oblasts it has annexed as Russian territory.
According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, while in Ukraine, Li “laid out China’s position and proposals on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.” He said there was no quick solution for the conflict and said the warring sides must “do their part to build up trust and create conditions for ceasefire and peace talks.”
The ministry added that Beijing “stands ready to work on the basis of the document of China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis, seek out the broadest common ground among the international community for settling the crisis, and contribute our part to an early ceasefire and restoration of peace.”
Neither side detailed the conversation between Li and Zelensky. During his trip to the region, Li, a former ambassador to Russia, will also visit Russia, Poland, France, and Germany.
98 thoughts on “Ukraine Tells China It Won’t Cede Territory for Peace Deal”
Russia is going to direct Ukrainian Soldiers into the Meatgrinder until there aren’t any more left.
Yes they are systematically eliminating the male population of the Donbas.
People are now protecting men from gangs seeking to press them into the army in western Ukraine. The days of forcing civilians to fight may be coming to an end.
Yes we hear about the same from Russia – however it is not policy in either Russia or Ukraine as far as I know.
Wrong. It is not needed in Russia as the recalled reserves in much hyped mobilization are still 90% on Russian soil. When and if they will be needed —- depends.
Which means that the original force assembled between Russian forces, contractors and Donbas military, is still the backbone of Russian forces in Ukraine.
They have been augmented by the newly mobilized reserves, but no real numbers. It cannot be a lot — as numbers of mobilized reserves outdide Ukraine is still estimated at 300,000. Even if you assume that this number is high due to volunteers, still, not much has been moved to Ukraine. Probably most in Crimea and Zapirozhie.
It is part of any war to portray enemies’ suffering greater, and one’s own losses minimal. Ukrainin sources are highly unreliable as they have suffered territorial losses, they cannot hope to recover terrirories that are vast majority Russian populated, and their own pool of available soldiers limited.
Over 10 million people left Ukraine to the West, and probably 5 million as to Russia.
Russia can comfortably implement full draft with 35 million people, while still not affecting economy or public services.
Ukraine cannot at this point recruit more than 60,000 people, as it has been already snatching people over 65 and under 18, by stalking bus and train stations, workplaces.
Britain is helping by recruiting Ukrainian immigrants, by nit too subtle pressure.
But it will be VERY hard to recruit in Western region. This roughly means everything to the West of a line drawn through Zhitonmir on Belarus border, and going southwest through Vinitsia to Moldova border at Dnyester river,
This Westernmost region had neverending painful history, being caught on thr edge of many empires and the often bloody line between Orthodox Christianity and Catholicism.
Their fate is being repeated. Being led by the siren song of Ukrainanism defined as happily theirs for ever, they chose to forget that over 75% of Ukraine is Christian Orthodox, while they are Catholic 25% of population.
The siren song was provided by globalists represented ably by Zelenski. It took a long time for West Ukraine to understand that they are not the intended beneficiaries of the attempted expulsion or assimilation of Russian-speakers.
Globalists have decided that Russia has to be damaged, its economy and military degraded. And Ukraine’s Catholic population, with its painful history — was ideal tool. The most recent painful history was reliance on Hitler to free them up from Soviet Union, and than suffering in the post WWII Soviet Union as all Hitler collaborating nations suffered.
It is no wonder they fell for a song of united and prosperous Europe.
Now, it is their turn to sacrifice in this war. Initially, Ukraine did send West Ukrainians to front. But they have raised big noise, gone to press , made videos — blaming command for their hardships. From that time on, theiy were recruited for various defence jobs, not front.
Now, Zelenski has no choice but to apply same strategis that worked throughout Ukraine. Catch them, and straigh to the front. Usualluly to defend pointless positions.
Yet we still have many stories about individuals being impressed into service and sand to fight in Ukraine against their will. You want me to dig up the video evidence to support this – there is quite a lot.
The question was not about the bulk of the forces but about whether there were people being impressed to serve.
You know this from your very reliable Russian sources? If so ask yourself why a much more powerful Russian army which must then still have a very large advantage in almost all weapons categories have struggled for 224 days to take one medium sized city very close to the 2014 line of control?
Public services are already affected – so no – and that is according to the Russians themselves.
Even losing 10 million as refugees the Ukrainians would not be anywhere near down to a 60.000 limit – the French lost far more KIA during the first year of WWI from a similar population – the notion that there are no more men of fighting age in Ukraine is absurd.
Any evidence to support this claim?
It is hard to recruit in Russia it is not a big surprise that it is also not easy in Ukraine.
There is no evidence that it is Ukrainian policy to systematically impress people into the army – there is not even much evidence that it is happening on a moderate scale as in Russia – if you have any actual evidence then provide it.
If you just wish to repeat Ukrsinian propaganda how angelic and proper they are and everything bad that can happen — happenns in Russia only, there is no conversation. All zI said was that Russia has no conditions that pushes a government to implement impressment. Ukraine has plenty, all of it documented, reporttecd, over time. Everywhere — Newsweek, CNN, BBC.
I do not wish to repeat Ukrainian propaganda, but I did so as a reply to your rendition of Russian propaganda – to show you that we get this kind of information from both sides about the other – and there is little proof of either.
Yet we repeatedly are told that they do this to e.g. war protesters. And to people in Donetsk and Luhansk.
Care to link to any reports documenting that Ukraine has a forced impressment program?
Russia work release from prison is no joke.
At least the recidivism rate will be lower when guys don’t make it out alive of Russia’s version of the foreign legion.
I’m almost glad I did my time in the States….lol.
Ukraine does not have to “cede” anything. Those parts of Ukraine which are full of people wanting to be part of Russia are already there.
Agreed. As a practical matter, the biggest concession Kyev will have to make is to publicly admit that Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea haven’t been part of Ukraine for several years.
I find it sad and strange that “Ukraine” wants to keep those places where the people don’t like them!!
The arrogant know no bounds. When the US has no more weapons to give, the war will end. Ukraine as always tries to take everything without negotiating, and expects to then take even more in negotiations. They stole Ukraine’s democracy, Russia’s pipeline energy, and all the money and weapons they can trick us into turning over. It won’t end well or soon at this rate.
Waste of time as I suspected. The only way to stop the war is regime change in Kiev and one other capitol whose name shall remain secret (for now). Anything less is a fool’s errand.
Heh…Bear I believe I can accurately guess the “secret” 😉
There won’t be any peace deal unless Ukraine cedes Crimea. Can’t get any simpler.
They are talking though, setting conditions as their opening position. Let’s wait a few weeks and see how they do in that offensive.
Perhaps when they say “we ain’t ceding anything” afterwards it won’t be such a hard demand?
Everyone begins with a really hard position but reality usually sets in after battles are not won.
Sadly, I agree. Have to take their chances on whether more death can add a few bargaining chips.
With all his crazy demands, it seems his DEATH might add quite a lot toward a peaceful outcome….!!!!!!
All that city tells me is Ukrainian’s politicians along with the West’s politicians like Biden and his cabinet are running this war and that never works out.
Putin used a mercenary force and its causulties to keep a large portion of Ukrainians military tied up using a big portion of their arms shipment and killing off thousands of troops while being the poor souls who died instead of regular troops who were spared.
Those regular Russian troops are in their barracks and now it’s time to put a bunch of them in to fight a force that is licking wounds and are trying to get a offensive going now that they finally lost that city.
Ukrainians are finding out that their politicians lose wars just like they traditionally do here.
Interesting alternate universe you live in, where the fight for Bakhmut was conducted entirely by Wagner Group.
In the universe where this web site is published, the attacking forces included Wagner Group elements, units of the Russian armed forces (including the 144th Guards Motor Rifle division, 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, and others), and elements of the LPR and DPR militias.
There were Russian troops on the outskirts or have you forgotten about the fake general and the fake story about him selling them out? Were not regular toops involved with those lousy logistics you keep harping on or was that ammo shartage all on the fake general at the end?
Now let’s get back to your very adament claims that Wagner was suffering way more losses than Ukraine….
So 50,000 vs. 20,000 ……how’s that “alternative universe” you are living in yourself doing?
You were so adamant in your universe it would be the opposite young man …lol.
They’ll likely get closer to parity as the numbers are looked at, maybe, but Ukraine will still have lost more.
Since the beginning of this war, I’ve never seen any reason to take any of the regimes’ casualty claims at face value.
But even taking the claims at face value, you are comparing apples and oranges — total Ukrainian casualties to casualties from only one of a number of units on the other side. I would be surprised if Wager comprised as much as 25% of the Russian force.
First off since I reviewed my post, where did I state regular troops did the fighting in that city? In fact I clearly shared Wagner did the fighting while the regular troops were spared.
I assumed you mistook something but come on ….lol!
So you are still arguing a grinding war causes the one gaining ground to lose more troops (from Stalingrad perhaps?) than those slowly withdrawing.
This city does not completely disprove that contention but it does not look good for you ……
With all his battles NOT won,. according to your analysis, Zmas ought to be quite aware of the facts and what they mean. But talks like he no understanding of reality at all…!!!!!! Maybe he is so addled from war snd the white powders, that he does not see the utter hopelessness of his position to dictate the terms of what happens next. His good luck seems to have fled to Western Europe…..
Zelensky doesn’t want western benefactors or his own people to know how badly things are going. He will likely continue to tell them what they want to hear until they wise up. But he can’t hide the fall of Bakhmut. The tide of public opinion may have finally turned against him.
Or the republics in Donbas.
and once again Crimea seems to be the main focus.
i don’t feature Russia allowing uncle sam to get anywhere near Crimea ever again.
give it up already uncle sam.
I would think that the U.S. realizes this and nevertheless want to keep the war going for the benefit of the Military Offense Industry or perhaps they are that out of touch and believe that Ukraine can take back Crimea.
Russia’s only warm water port.
Ukraine is talking to the point of setting conditions.
Negotiations appear to be slowly beginning.
I would expect such a condition to be the opening but where they will be at the end of the negotiations when they are speaking face to face might be quite different.
Let’s see where Ukraine is after their upcoming offensive.
Give them a month and they might not be as forceful and unyielding when they share that same condition.
Absolutely true, if the Ukrainians fail in their offensive (give them 2½ months – that is how long it takes to be sure – the Kherson offensive started in late August and was over 11 November) then they are much more likely to be wiling to compromise – the likelihood that the western nations will lift sanctions based on anything other than the status pre SMO is however very low.
Are you sure the Russians would be happy to be as much poorer and as isolated to have a ‘lasting’ ceasefire?
Sanctions rarely work and in this case Russia’s GDP according to the IMF is just slightly under no growth (less than 1% under) which more than shows those sanctions are not having much of an effect despite the State Department claims to the contrary.
The moment the talks start for a ceasefire the talks start for sanction lifting as well.
The Russian economy is reeling under the burden of the sanctions – the 2022 GDP figures belie the fact of this, partially as many of the most important sanctions only came into force December 2022 and January/February 2023.
You only have to consult the Russian figures to know why this is true: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jk9GqL9Wsx4
Want to have a bet on that?
Just to illustrate why:
Thank you for the laugh…….
Not my words – their words – and it is a tree they will have a hard time to climb down from, which is why when you are laughing you should consider that the thing you regard as laughable is a thing they think linked to their credibility and hence a thing that will cause them to continue sanctions.
You do not have to believe in it, it may even be objectively absurd, if that is what they believe they will stick with the sanctions – and that is why I think the sanctions will stay, even if the Russians agree to a cease fire – not because I believe in international law.
Are they going to serve that arrest warrant on Putin soon?
I’m sorry I laughed but come-on, no one takes claims of international law as anything more than scolding from elites like those in DC who only claim there is such a thing when it concerns those they dislike but when it’s invoked on those elites and their minions, they’ll claim those making the charge (whoever that may be) have no jurisdiction.
If you followed the debate then you would know that Putin is not going to the BRICS summit or to India, because of the arrest warrant – it has already been issued:
I think the Russian rage at this shows that you are not right, if it really was of no consequence they would not need to pay it almost any attention – they did pay it fairly much attention and pro-Putin commenters here argued that it would not prevent Putin from e.g. visit SA for the BRICS meeting in August.
They did react and calling for their BRICS comrades to call for a joint pursuit of the ICC dirtbags – guess what happened Putin is not going to the BRICS top meeting specifically invited to stay away
You are not serious are you?
If you really believe Putin will be arrestted then you probly believe Ukraine is winning.
Putin won’t be arrested, because he won’t travel to any ICC jurisdiction countries that would be required to arrest him.
The South African regime “asked” him not to physically come to the BRICS conference in Durban, specifically because if he did they’d be required to arrest him. Then it initiated the two-year process of withdrawing from the ICC.
So he doesn’t go until South Africa has filed the paperwork to withdraw from the ICC. He has had various functionaries heavily involved in all of this but it all comes down to an arrest warrant that no one really dares to enforce?
The guy I’m debating with is just grasping nonsence as his points and to tell you the truth his points are not very good but are just regurgitations of western media.
“So he doesn’t go until South Africa has filed the paperwork to withdraw from the ICC.”
Incorrect. He doesn’t go until South Africa has withdrawn from the ICC. Which takes two years. They’ve publicly asked him not to come to the conference because if he does they will be legally obliged to arrest him.
He sends the people who have been working on it as part of their jobs and who the Russian press talks to about the topic.
Why the focus on Putin when the focus should be on the conference itself?
That’s what is important not some clown’s post about arrest warrants and if we follow this paticular invocation of “international law” when others try to invoke it on us in various ways, we tell them to ef off.
Yes, he’ll just send a delegation instead of attending in person. No biggie.
The focus is on Putin specifically because the South African regime either had to, or chose to, tell him “don’t come here or you’ll be arrested.”
“We” may tell “them” to “ef off,” but as you may have noticed George W. Bush and Dick Cheney don’t travel to Europe, presumably because they don’t want to end up like Agosto Pinochet (who was arrested in London in 1998 after Spain issued a warrant).
It’s not really about whether anyone is “afraid” to arrest Putin. If he goes to a place where his arrest is required, he’ll be arrested. So he won’t go to those places.
You just want to argue today don’t you?
The topic was about the Russian economy, sanctions, BRICS but you pick out arrest warrants to discuss when you jumped in.
Are you going to object to the word “argue” as well?
Word usage is another bug-a-boo that gets you going as well.
Are Tuesdays that bad?
I discuss what I find interesting.
Even if someone else brings that thing up.
In the case of the arrest warrant that someone was, um, you.
I make a half-ass joke during a discussion and you want to pick it apart despite me obviously not taking the topic any more seriously than the joke I made. What-if’s of that sort are just silly discussions with no resolutions about events that may or may not occur that may or may not cause other issues that we can only guess about as would be most of the discussion.
When we don’t give Iranians speaking at the UN visas to enter the US or allow war crimes to be charged against US soldiers instead of a show of complete hypocrisy then perhaps I’ll be willing to engage about the following of “International Law” in regards to Putin’s arrest warrant.
Are you really this dense? The point is not that he will be arrested but that he was uninvited!
Because of the hassle not because that BRICS won’t be a very important meeting. If Putin did show up no one would dare arrest him because despite yocals in comment sections that claim otherwise.
In fact South Africa would withdraw that demand he does not attend the meeting with a simple phone call from Russia that would explain the facts of life (and death) to them.
Still missing the point – which is that they did not want to have to handle the issue of arrest or not arrest, I have not claimed that they would arrest him, just that they uninvited him.
They could, but the point is that the won’t, you will explain it by the Russians having other priorities (and this might be true), I am inclined to believe that the Russians would not try to bull the South Africans into revoking their uninvite, either way what we will be left with is that he was uninvited and he did not attend – which is not the best for the Russian propaganda.
Exactly; Putin wants and needs South Africa to be freindly with him.
So he’s not pushing this because it’s the guy in charge of their BRICS effort that normally attends the meetings that need to be there, not him.
But no one would actually arrest him if he did decide for some reason to show up because that would mean a war much bigger than Ukraine.
International law are rules that are obeyed when it is convenient.
You’re somewhat correct that they wouldn’t arrest him if he showed up.
They just wouldn’t let his plane land.
But either way there would be no war over it. Heads of state may be Very Special Important People, but there’s one respect in which they’re in an even worse position than everyone else: They don’t get to visit other states without permission. Some guy from Guadalajara can probably sneak into the US and get a job at a poultry plant with a good chance of never being noticed. Vladimir Putin is too high-profile to visit London or Paris or Durban or DC without asking nicely and being told yes.
It’s a complete diplomatic dance at all times as you share but my pushback is the amorphous “international law” is going to arrest Putin as if that would happen as this thread began.
Come on, I know we have agreements, treaties and what not and we try to follow them until we don’t or claim something no longer or never realy did mean something so we don’t do that anymore.
You get my drift?
If Putin was offering a really swell goodie (free oil because Putin just likes them or something actually
realistic) to South Africa, I bet that arrest warrant would not be such a issue to them and they’d roll out the carpet for him.
If he went, but then he does not, and hence we are left with a propaganda defeat for Russia – i.e. that SA officially uninvited Putin – so their need for good relations with the west trumped their need to appear friendly to Putin – and that was the point I was making.
The other point ‘International law are rules that are obeyed when it is convenient‘ is only true for powerful nations fairly immune to sanctions from the parties they may offend – i.e. for Denmark that is practically never, for Israel only as long as they have the protection of the US.
Then you can say Russia is among those “immune” from them if they decide to push the issue.
International law is an amorphous term that only works as it is portrayed when the participants play the game.
International law has been invoked on us by our so-called enemies but we just view that as empty threats because we know those folks aren’t going to enforce Schiff.
I’d love to see Lindsey Graham lead an arrest team to get Putin just for the entertainment value alone but that is not happening is it?
Yes if they decide to push the issue and the South African’s yield to the Russian ‘demands’ – if the South African’s do not then… the Russians were not ‘immune’ by proxy.
Yes the US is one of the best examples of the limits of International law – (Israel is IMO an even better – as it does not have the size that it ought to be able to ignore it), Russia is a third example – at least up until 2022.
The arrest team will belong to the nation in which it gets carried out – are you suggesting that Putin will visit the US?
You really are in world all by yourself.
Are you going to lead up the arrest team?
When do you plan on arresting Putin?
Are you really this dense – I live in Denmark – Putin is not going to visit here any more than he is going to visit the US – or for that matter South Africa – which is what we have been trying to explain to you over the last many comments.
My nephew just took a class trip to your little nation.
Even he at his age knows no one would arrest Putin just like Iran was never going to “arrest” Bush back when they were claiming they were going to put them on trial.
BTW Denmark needs to pay NATO a lot more money than they do.
The US tax payer is tired of welfare cases like Denmark expecting the US to pay for their protection.
Perhaps ask your nephew to read this for you?
It never was about arresting Putin, this might happen but it was/is exceedingly unlikely, it was always about making him uninvited to the places signed up to the ICC.
You also appear not to understand how NATO works! The member countries do not pay NATO – they agree to spend a certain amount on their military – depending on how that is calculated (e.g. is pensions included, rent of facilities etc.) that translates into more or less hardware. Denmark has not been spending as much as we have agreed to spend, but pay attention we have only agreed to spend 2% of GDP by 2025 so we still have some years to get our act together.
Again this is not how it works the US is not paying what the other nations fail to pay – the US decides all by its lonesome what it wants to spend. That said we are aware that we have been freeriding in much of EU on the spending of others so you should be very happy that we have decided to back Ukraine as this has dramatically increased the spending plans in EU.
Personally I find it a bit depressing as we were already spending enough in monetary terms in EU, we were spending it poorly (i.e. more for e.g. pensions and salaries than for the right hardware) but I guess we have uncle Putin to thank for the new priorities.
So you admit that arrest was never going to happen so now you are off to claim it was just to make him isolated because without a phony arrest warrant he’d be welcomed anywhere.
In otherwords it is not real which is my point completely.
You can pretend Putin is going to be arrested but that is just a fantasy.
Now on to your tiny country refusing to pay for their protection.
You need to stop being a country of weak whiny children needing our protection.
The US is spending its money to protect your little weak nation because you refuse to do it yourselves and Denmark does not have a history of being able to protect themselves (WW2)
The US ought to let your little country defend itself with no assistance.
You guys need to raise a real army, step up and be men instead of children who need the adults to protect them and pay for it.
Denmark needs to grow up.
I cannot admit to this as I never suggested that the arrest warrant was going to be effectuated – what I have stated is that it prevents Putin from being invited to any of the signatories to the ICC, and that Putin like any leader would not travel to any country without an ‘invitation’ – so if you want to say that this makes the warrant phony then that just your definition.
Is a warrant not real if it does prevent the warrantee from travelling to any country subject to the jurisdiction of the warrant? That is a very strange way to define not ‘real’.
I’m not pretending anything, I only suggest that the warrant limits his actions – like any warrant does for anyone.
No we deemed that the Russians were not so much of a threat – If I remember a lot of your pro-Russian friends here have gone to great length to say that this is even still the case – I always believed it was wrong, but then until 2014 I was in the minority.
We were never that, we simply did not believe the Russians were about to attack – do/did you?
No the US was spending money to be able to pursue a very activist foreign policy – or is it your claim that the US would have not have executed any foreign interventions if the rest of the NATO countries had spent 2% of GDP?
Trump almost did – and you know what, it would be very bad for the US arms industry – if the US quit NATO then the other countries would have to secure domestic production of all weapons systems – that would make jets orders of magnitude more expensive for the US – I’m sure this is the economic win you and your fellow very ‘defense naïve’ commenters think.
You need to look into advantages of scale and ponder why it is that the US would have much more military kit than it would ever need if it was only to defend NATO. How was it you put it`? Something like: You better stop here you are only embarrassing yourself more with each comment.
Bla bla bla.
You children need to grow up and stop expecting the US to protect you with NATO.
I know Denmark is unable to fight or win any war they might get into but who cares?
Denmark will be part of the EU defense collaboration.
As for the claim that Denmark is unable to fight or win any was they might get into, that is just flat out wrong, in the wars we have been involved we have done very well.
You needed Uncle Sugar to rescue you in WW2 and protect you ever since.
When you grow up, be men and have a Army not dependent on the US presence and money to protect you then I’ll start to believe you, but your country is just a whiny child demanding we protect you right now.
No the UK would have been enough – you can argue that the UK needed the help of the US, but Germany was going to lose that war with or without the US involved.
Sure the hapless Brits that needed us to rescure them could have done it.
Grow up Dane, be a man and takeover the US army’s protection of your tiny country.
Or are you too scared to grow up?
Are you seriously this challenged? American exceptionalism at it’s best/strongest.
Do you even know WW2 history? The Brits almost lost the war before we started helping them with arms then our entry into the war.
There is no way the Brits would have won that war without us or the Russians fighting the Axis.
I appear to know WWII history a whole damned lot better than you.
The Brits would have won that war without US intervention, even without US arms.
There was never a realistic threat of a German invasion they did not have the shipping capacity to cross the channel.
The Germans were always set on invading Russia, so when they had realized that there could be no invasion of England they started on their Russian failure.
They simply had to do this as they were running out of oil.
When they failed to take Moscow in 1941 it was pretty much a done deal.
This was clearly evidenced by their 1942 campaign where they simply no longer had the capacity to field an army to take the Russian oilfields and hold them.
The reason Stalingrad is better known is because the Germans had an army encircled there – but by the time they entered Stalingrad AH already knew it was over.
Some were telling him that already in early 42 – the logistics simply was not there to support this.
So no the Germans were losing this already by late 41 and they were doing so on account of oil and logistics.
The very poor logistics was very much down to their absurd economics.
Do you have help with dressing yourself?
You are a complete uneducated idiot.
Britain was losing until we got in.
Danes are not only children who need our protection but apparently do not even know history.
Anyone who believes Britain would have won WW2 without the United States and Russia’s help is a totally uneducated kid.
Have you even graduated high school yet?
Never taken a history class yet kid, have you child?
Do you even know what decade the war occured in or who were the participants?
I did not say without Russia – I specifically stated that the Germans were always going to attack Russia. The notion that the British with a world spanning empire would have lost, when they through having a mighty fleet had prevented the Germans from invading England is patently absurd.
Once that fact was established and it was so to the satisfaction of the German leader, they gave up on any further cross channel adventure, they were at that point aware that their oil situation was getting critical. Their economic policies had made them squander the productive potential of nearly all occupied territories and their logistics were a nightmare – Germany one of the major coal producers was seeing local shortages in 41.
When the Germans failed to take Moscow in 41 the Germans had to take the Russian oilfields in their next offensive to have any hope of continuing the war – let alone winning it. They only almost managed and their logistics people could have told you so in early 42 i.e. before the US had had an impact on the war.
The simple fact being that they did nit have the fleet of trucks or trains to sustain troops fighting in near Grosny not even to sustain the people fighting near Stalingrad. Nonetheless they made a very optimistic attempt – but we know that AH himself realized that it had been in vain when they failed to capture the oilfields intact and failed to trap the Russian forces – from that point (and this is well before they entered Stalingrad) they had lost and the logistics people knew.
You stated Britain did not need our help. You further stated Britain would have liberated your defeated tiny nation and would have not needed the US to help to do it.
Anyone who believes that nonsence needs to crack a book.
In your case at least two books.
No Britain didn’t need help, the Germans were going to attacked Russia so the Germans would just have been starved of oil – so yes the British with the help of the resistance movements and more importantly the German’s very bad economic policies would eventually have prevailed. Russia was not helping Britain, they were receiving help from Britain.
Anyone who have actually looked into German production figures and shortages within their systems would have arrived at the same conclusion. But do not let your ignorance prevent you from displaying your US exceptionalism!
For the record, I’m not suggesting that the US was not an exceedingly welcome partner nor that the war would have ended on anything like as favorable terms as it did – only that the US was not the factor that prevented a German victory – they had failed on all fronts before the US became a major factor.
More idiocy from the dane
“In fact South Africa would withdraw that demand he does not attend the meeting with a simple phone call from Russia that would explain the facts of life (and death) to them.”
Here are the facts of life and death:
If Vladimir Putin goes to South Africa, Vladimir Putin gets arrested and shipped off to the Hague.
Therefore, Vladimir Putin will not go to South Africa. He won’t make threatening phone calls demanding that South Africa violate its own laws for the privilege of having him there, because he’s not an idiot and knows that approach would just make him look like one.
He wouldn’t because he knows it would push South Africa away from him.
My point is that if he decided to do so, for whatever reason he decided to, no one would arrest him because that would start a war.
Just like if it happened to Biden, Macronor any other leader.
Hasn’t Iran issued a few arrest warrants (or whatever they call them) over the years that everyone understands that if they do carry them out it won’t just be a missle strike?
Sure arrest Putin without a internal coup behind it and we will see a heck of a reaction.
IMF shares the Russian economy , represented by GDP has dipped to a less than 1% under no growth for ’22.
You are picking one stray fact from a Youtube video of all places to make your case of a crash, something that is not occurring.
The upcoming 11th round of sactions were to go after 3rd parties but they refrained from naming/going after China.
Your perceptions are being shaped by the liars in Washington and their MSM liars.
Yes as should be expected from soring energy prices and during that year none of the serious economic sanctions having been implemented yet – it is as I pointed out first in 2023 we see an effect.
I picked that YouTube video as it explained to you that using the Russian sources the state of the Russian economy is very bad in 2023 – if you so desire I can dig up the Russian sources, and try my much poorer English to explain what they say and what that means – is it that you do not trust that guy?
No my expectations are shaped by the figures provided by the Russian ministry of finance and the figures for the price on Ural oil – have you not picked up on this yet? I have yet to link one solely western source on the effect of sanctions.
The G7 has set a $60 per barrel price point for Russian oil for sanction purposes
Russia is receiving around $70 currently.
India and China snap up Russian oil in April above ‘price cap’ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-china-snap-up-russian-oil-april-above-price-cap-2023-04-18/
How’s those sanctions working?
They are working very well – it was never the point to prevent other nations from transporting, insuring and paying above the price cap – that would have been impossible with those sanctions, so if the Indians and the Chinese want to support Russia in this way they can.
What they cannot is to buy the same amounts of oil and gas that Russia used to sell to the west at the prices the west used to pay – because they cannot insure and transport those amounts. So no big deal that Ural oil from April 3 to May 2 was traded at slightly above 60 USD/barrel*
It is now down to 56 USD/barrel so on average it is traded at about the price cap (see the link at the bottom). So on the whole I’m more than satisfied with the way the Price cap is working out.
*Btw: it never reached the about 73 USD/barrel needed for Russia’s budget needs topping out at 67 USD/barrel
Less than 1% under growth and you are focusing completely on oil that even you share is selling above that $60 price.
Give it up: you can’t focusd on one single commodity and strapulate that into a Russian depression.
The latest round of sanctions were to focus on 3rd party nations who were helping Russia evade sanctions but then China objected and China was not named nor hit with sanctions.
Watch for the August BRICS meeting in Durban. There is alot of talk of a basket of digital currencies bing formed to compete with the dollar.
While you are focusing on oil (trading above sanction:-), Russia and China with a lot of help from India, Brazil and South Africa may move past some slighty pesky sanctions and cause some serious problems as they move past the dollar dominence in trade.
Less than 1% estimated/predicted growth with no actual based on figures provided by the Kremlin, that while we have very good evidence for them losing out massively on their most important export earnings (hitting over 50% of their main exports).
So yes I focus on the known rather than on the speculative and very likely propaganda influenced projected growth figures – the Russians have already themselves admitted to spending over 80% of their budgeted deficit within first quarter.
I can and I do, when oil and gas products are such a huge part of Russia’s export earnings. You cannot focus so exclusively on known fairly poor predictors of actual situations as the projected growth – especially when those projections were based on figures prior to main sanctions taking effect and being subject to Russian propaganda influence.
That does not really insolate the Chinese companies from the effect of sanctions – many Chinese companies have already severely reduced their engagement with the Russian market, but if you are right then we should soon see the Chinese buying a lot of western IT products and export them to the Russians – so far we have seen little evidence of this.
You seem to believe that the sanctions have to make Russia 100% isolated to be effective – that is not how sanctions work ever – they work by making supplies much more expensive and subject to delays and huge problems with reliability both of delivery times and quality.
Yes I know it is going to be interesting, but have I not already pointed out to you why this is not the threat it is being made out to be? If not picked up by many non-BRICS countries losing the trade between the BRICS is not a threat to the USD as a global reserve currency – the trade between the BRICS being too unbalanced and too little to be such a threat.
No so far you have only argued for China, the others are extremely vulnerable to sanctions – they will not dramatically increase their trade with Russia for fear that they will be hit by secondary sanctions – sure buy oil at the near the capped price, but that is the point of the cap, i.e. not cut world supply but cap Russian profits.
You just copy then paste then write quips of gibberish that have no basis in fact.
The IMF is making it up according to you; how totally unserious you are.
You are just making a fool of yourself but please continue.
The IMF is surprisingly enough dependent on what governments report to them – I know shocker – so yes the IMF is dependent on sources that are subject to Russian propaganda – did you not know this???
So now you are doing the always humorous internet comment section mode of argument and now you call the IMF a Russian stooge because you are have no personal ability to refute with actual facts that they are wrong.
We are done; you are just embarrassing yourself now.
No I’m telling you the limits of what IMF can do with their research i.e. that they are dependent on the figures provided by the states themselves – if that is somehow embarrassing then it must be to you, who apparently believe things are/were otherwise.
So just where do the numbers come from?
Please tell me where one goes to find the figures that we should rely on that do not involve governments and analysts?
The figures the IMF base their estimates come from the national authorities of the members – if you want to have alternative figures there are none, what we can base estimates on are completely different things like satellite data:
Again did you not know this???
Satellite photos of pollution is not data but rather postulations by analysts to explain the obviouschange in manufacturing as a country went to war.
The IMF predicted a over 2% drop below growth but had to share that number they went with.
You are just upset they did not provide you the number you wanted not that you actually have any basis to disbelieve it other than it’s government numbers as you bleated before.
Pollution photo analysis is way more sketchy and subjective than the IMF but you go with it …..lol.
If it was a change there would not have been much less pollution – this is not proof that there has been a reduction in production, but it is evidence, and you were asking about alternative sources to the ones vulnerable to government fiddling.
No I’m not upset with the IMF numbers because I understand what they are based on – and predictions of the future based on the past are always uncertain anyway.
You specifically asked:
I pointed you to figures that are estimated without involvement of the governments that it is about – all figures/estimates involve analysts.
If you want to trust the IMF figures which are based on the Russian government figures and which are based on the situation before the implementation of the most severe sanctions then that is for you to do – only when it turns out that they are not actually true and there are/was bigger problems do not forget that there was evidence that these figures were not to be trusted.
Note that I’m not here saying that the pollution based figures are the absolute truth only that they are evidence that there may be bigger problems than the IMF figures would lead you to believe – i.e. you are the one trusting sketchy and subjective figures not I.
“…Ukraine does not accept any proposals that would involve the loss of its territories…”
In that case, you better hope the gravy train of free weapons doesn’t EVER stop. You also better hope those Ukrainian kids born just before the conflict are old enough to fight soon (willingly or not) because you’re running out of adult trigger fingers. Weapons aside, it’s a simple question of numbers: the Russians have more troops. A lot more. And they’re nowhere near being on a total war footing.
Tick, tick, tick.
The Ukrainian population was about the size of the French at the start of WWI, they have lost far fewer men than the French did in just the first year of the war – the notion that either party is actually running out of men is patently false.
As for the Russians having more troops – that did not help them (or the US) in Afghanistan, wars come down not only to the number of troops that a country can field but also to the quality of those troops and the ability to equip and sustain them at the front – the Russians have shown themselves woefully inadequate at both.
You are right that the Russians are not at a war footing yet, but Putin seems very unwilling to go to that position – doing so might very well not be of that much help as they still are short of a lot of the components to sustain the troops at the front – rebuilding everything to the Russian ability to sustain it may not be at all easy.
So far the clock has not been helping the Russians – remember that the western nations helping the Ukrainians are also scaling up production.
Not just s comedy guy, but a clown too… Don’t hold your breath waiting for Putin/Russia to give back all the lost ground to be able to hear you got nothing to give. Maybe the Russians will kill him so there can be as peace deal where the winners don’t have to give back their gains and the losers get back what they lost duty free. Or to put it another way, maybe everyone can Gert real….!!!!!!
You’d have to kill all the Neocons while your at it. They don’t like any sort of peace.
Correction: we won’t secede any territory for peace. We, America, the White House on the Hill, have stopped the idea of negotiations… twice. Austin is on record as saying we (not I) want to bleed Russia. So says the guy from Raytheon.
Comments are closed.