The Biden administration is preparing for the possibility of Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive failing, POLITICO reported on Monday.
Pentagon documents allegedly leaked by Airman Jack Teixeira revealed that the US doesn’t believe Ukraine can regain any significant territory in its counteroffensive, which is expected to be launched in the spring. The information in the leaks was based on an assessment made in February.
According to POLITICO, more current assessments also don’t expect much Ukrainian success. Two Biden administration officials said they don’t think Kyiv has the ability to sever Russia’s landbridge to Crimea in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
The report said US intelligence “indicates that Ukraine simply does not have the ability to push Russian troops from where they were deeply entrenched.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in March that his forces need more Western weapons before they can launch a counteroffensive.
The administration is expected to face criticism from hawks who believe Biden hasn’t given Ukraine enough weapons, as well as those who have been calling for the US to push for diplomacy. The US is also worried that many of its European allies will favor negotiations between the warring sides if Ukraine’s offensive fails.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the administration has discouraged peace talks and recently came out against the idea of a ceasefire in Ukraine. The administration has left it up to Zelensky when to pursue peace talks, and he still maintains they can’t happen until Russia is driven out of all the territory it controls, including Crimea.
But now, according to POLITICO, there is a discussion among administration officials about convincing Ukraine to accept more modest goals and agree to a temporary ceasefire. Possible incentives for Kyiv include giving Ukraine NATO-like security guarantees and more military aid.
The issue with the US plan is that Russia has signaled it won’t settle for a frozen conflict and has stated it can only achieve its war goals by military means. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov recently reiterated that one of Moscow’s main priorities is keeping Kyiv out of NATO after NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Ukraine’s “rightful place” is in the alliance.
In the early days of the Russian invasion, Russian and Ukrainian officials were engaged in peace talks, and Moscow’s primary demand was for Ukrainian neutrality. But now Kyiv stands to lose much more as Russia maintains any settlement must include recognizing the areas it annexed in the Donbas and the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts as Russian territory.
So, why doesn’t Biden “prep” for peace?
He cannot. Elections. He has to prove his manly credentials, Cannot be a “loser”. Relublicans would pounce on any hint of “weakness”, Sick political dynamics.
Agreed.
But he is even starting to lose that support.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_biden_approval_on_handling_of_russia_ukraine-7572.html
Joe Biden is not and never has been a proponent of peace
I am inclined to agree wendell. Our Presidents seem like they are mostly figure heads, not the actual proponents of this or that…
The electoral system has been a former of suppression and misery.for working.folk since.the start.back.in 1776.It will.never get any.better until.the people throw off their.chains.
The current electoral system is not very much democratic but it is very much convenient for the financial elites. For example, in time of the presidential elections, a candidate can promise anything. Once he got the job, he may forget about his promises and do exactly the opposite (as Zelensky did) and there are no way to get him out from the office unless the parliament impeach him. When both parliament and president are corrupted, the situation is hopeless. And, as we know, the corporate media is also owned by the financial elite. They developed quite an efficient system of manipulation.
Of course this is a problem for the Russians. We are encroaching on almost all sides. NATO is putting its nose in too many different places at one time.
We’ve never met a nation we didn’t want to force into subservience with high explosives.
Very sad and very true.
Sometimes money work even better than explosives. The most loyal European nations to US oligarchy are Baltic republics and Poland. They are always happy to serve American Empire. What is particular smart, Americans made EU to pay for their loyalty to US.
I think you have encapsulated our situation very well.
It is called extortion , it always works.
NATO could need negotiations but only for the sake of a ceasefire and getting time for rearming Ukrainian army. Russia doesn’t mind negotiations but will not agree for a temporary ceasefire.
It is possible that neither side can muster the combat power to break the stalemate. It takes a while for everybody to realize that and then maybe negotiate. I doubt the Russian logistic situation is fantastic either. I would hope as a matter of course our government has plans for a number of foreseeable contingencies.
First of all I object to the term our government. The US government has nothing in common with the wants and needs of the populace.This government is in power to enhance the holdings of then rich rulers of the country and suppress the economic freedom that we want and need. Except for a brief period on the 30s this has always been and will always be as long as rapacious Capitalism is our system.
“I would hope as a matter of course our government has plans for a number of foreseeable contingencies”
That was very funny and very sad at the same time.
Sure…… Just like they handled Pentagon funded & run biolabs shocker. After Biden and the whole administration was flat out denying any knowledge of biolabs, they trot out Nuland who says, yes those biolabs are ours, and we don’t want the Russians to get what is in them. Great job, all fixed…… or was it…?????
“Two Biden administration officials said…” Am I the only paranoid monomaniac with OCD who’s asking himself, why are they telling me this right now? Please. Have mercy. (Sarcasm alert)
“POLITICO: Biden Preparing for Failed Ukrainian Counteroffensive The US doesn’t expect Ukraine to regain significant territory”
Shameful and evil Joey Biden fails to consider all of the Ukrainians who will be KIA. Better to stop, cease fire, and negotiate.
Making blood money is the most evil imaginable.
Grrr, bad Russians! Except that’s not what Dmitry Peskov said. Dave is doing the usual thing, “I provide a link so that must mean I have proof,” and 99% of readers won’t check if the link really says that.
What Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov actually said sounds a lot different:
“For us, the absolute priority continues and will always remain the achievement of the goals set. At the moment they can only be achieved by military means. So far there are no preconditions for the transition of the process into a peaceful course.”
Peskov wants a peaceful course, but the Ukrainians refuse. That is because Zelensky insists on Russia handing over Russian Crimea and Donbass to Ukraine as a requisite for “peace talks” even beginning, in other words Russia should surrender first.
Then, Zelensky says, the “negotiations” should be about how much money Ukraine should get from Russia.
Russia has repeatedly offered peace and negotiations, ever since March 2022 when they only asked that Zelensky follow the Minsk Agreement Ukraine had already signed. They didn’t even ask Ukraine to leave the territory it held in Donbass. Only that their constant shelling of the people in Donbass, especially in Donetsk, would stop. Then Donbass would stay in Ukraine but with autonomy, like seven other regions in Europe. It was Pereshenko and then Zelensky who refused to follow this agreement.
I disagree in one point: “ever since March 2022 when they only asked that Zelensky follow the Minsk Agreement Ukraine had already signed. They didn’t even ask Ukraine to leave the territory it held in Donbass.” – Minsk Agreements were definitely abandoned in February 2022 a couple of days before Russian invasion into Ukraine. Before the invasion, Russia recognized the independence of two Donbass republics. So in March 2022 Putin offered to Kiev regime to leave the territories of those two republics without fighting and abandon the idea to join NATO.
The Minsk agreement was delaying tactic so the the US could train up the Ukraine Army starting in 2014 it was never meant to be implemented .
I am talking about Russia. After the recognition of their independence by Russia, Minsk Agreements lost any value.
Russia was prepared, they always had a plane B.
But Russia knew all about the de facto NATO exercises in Ukraine. Russians did what had to be done, they prepared for the inevitable war with NATO.
Maybe France, Germany, and Russia tested the waters, if Minsk worked, fine, and Russia prepared for the worst, they knew NATO can’t be trusted. Putin had been deceived before and he is not a fool. MHO
In other words, both NATO and Russia used Minsk as a cover to prepare for full war instead of just the Donbas proxy war. Interesting it would be you to acknowledge that.
I did not acknowledge that. No, Russia had no choice, the Russians were on their guard because the USA/NATO can not be trusted. The de facto NATO membership arming and military exercises were there for all to see. The Army Times and the Rand corporations reported it. The Ukrainian neo-Nazis had their chance, you can’t blame the Russians. They fight a defensive war, no matter what you call it.
Oh yeah thanks for the reminder of the highly bragged about NATO war games in both the Baltic Sea area and then the Bkack Sea area.
TAKE THAT PUTIN. THESE ARE NATO CONTROLLED TERRITORY.
I blame the Russians exactly as much as I blame the other crooks involved. Unlike you, I’m not under any illusion that this or that ruling gangster enjoys some kind of magical moral superiority.
It all comes down to Wash. intervening in another civil war abroad which doesn’t affect Americans. Why? war is good business for a few and there’s money to be made. And, you are absolutely right: it takes two to make a fight as every mom told us, but sometimes one has to find out who is more to blame in provocations and other factors before the first punch hits the nose.
Just as Maj. General Smedley Butler stated in his book, “War is a Racket”.
It is not that Russia is acting exceptionally good. It is that the US is going crazy
We are poking at China now just like we did at Russia before the Ukraine conflict. And doing stupid stuff
We earlier sent drones to attack a Russian air base deep inside Russia. No real military value. SUPER wreckless. The NATO war games so close to the Russian border before the conflict were just as stupid. Play stupid games, get stupid prizes.
The US most certainly is NOT promoting peace and prosperity throughout the world. We did not even clean up the DU shells we dispersed throughout Iraq.
I hope your earlier predictions come to be true. Do we have to have a few hundred million dead before prioritizing peaceful coexistence a bit more?
America is going crazy. The news is nothing but craziness.
Let me tell you I trust Putin before I would trust Biden. Putin has accomplished a lot for the Russian people, our media does not dare to admit it. Clinton began to encircle the RF, braking all agreements made with Gorbi and still Putin tried to be friends with the Europeans and Anglo-Saxons. The USA has lost all the trust the Europeans had. The hegemon is showing its true colors, they are not pretty. People demonstrate with signs saying Ami go home.
“Let me tell you I trust Putin before I would trust Biden.”
Yes, I’m aware that you have a preference between lying thugs, have convinced yourself Putin is some kind of Elvis, and just can’t wait to scream and throw your panties onstage when he breaks into “Hound Dog.” Enjoy your fantasies, I guess.
Your russophobia comes through loud and clear. Biden is a demented old man, he is not in charge, he signs on the dotted line and campaigns for reelection. The public does not really know who is in charge in the WH, we can be sure it is not Biden. That is it, Putin is a statesman, a respected competent world leader, regardless of your opinion.
What is amusing is the fact that you call Biden a lying thug. That speaks for itself
Ah, the “if you don’t rhetorically fellate one particular Russian gangster 24/7/365, you’re RUSSOPHOBIC” card.
Not even a good try.
That was incredibly crude, Thomas. As moderator, you should be above that.
“As a moderator” has nothing to do with it. The job of the moderator here is to enforce guidelines. When I’m commenting, I’m just commenting, not moderating.
And if the pro-war types here can’t start coming up with better arguments than “Vladimir Putin is SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO dreamy and all those other gangsters are just mean ol’ poopyheads for not giving him ANYTHING HE WANTS,” they deserve “cruder” retorts than that.
Another declared Putin lover. Noted.
Facts are Facts, you can’t change that.
No way, the facts are what they are, Biden wants regime change in Moscow, ruthlessly he uses the Ukrainians as proxies, they are his cannonfodder because body bags with American bodies of American sons would be bad in an election year. Austin the same, he wants to weaken Russia at the expense of the Ukrainian sons too. Ruthless genocide of the Ukrainians, a war crime. Zelensky of the same character is making good use of it, he is extorting more money and weapons from Biden and gets it every time, plus funding from other NATO criminal accomplices.
The U.S. cannot be trusted. The sheep (EU, NATO) follow, Washington dangling dollars and markets for their products before their ministers. It is all about the money. Always.
It is much worse now, the USA treats the allies like their enemy and they do it openly, see the pipeline sabotage, that is against Germany and the EU. the USA is doing to Europe what they have done to the ME including Libya, they will turn Europe in ruins. They will destroy the roots of their own culture.
They’re not allies, they’re stooges and that’s how you treat stooges.
I look forward to the day they prove themselves otherwise.
The Biden neocons have demolished NATO and EU, how it will end remains to be seen. Biden and his cabal are taking the empire over the cliff, they are convinced their power is limitless. They are suicidal.
Clinton expanded NATO, Bush continued and ended the ABM agreements and found out NATO had limits, France and Germany refused to support the Iraq invasion, Obama tried to not rock the boat, Trump started to destroy NATO and the EU with attacking the global economy with tariffs and sanctions and more tax cuts and more increased military budgets, and the war monger Biden continued with the neocons going back to W. Bush and PNAC.
When in history did a leader of a military alliance attack a member of the alliance while they are involved in a military conflict like the idiots of the Biden team did? There are consequences in the pipeline yet to come.
The Biden neocons have demolished NATO and EU, how it will end remains to be seen.
Might just end up with Biden inadvertently being the greatest President since Washington!
The good Lord moves in mysterious ways.
sarcasm? We live in crazy times you know.
From the start the USA did not support the agreements that was a red flag, no matter what you say. France, Germany, and Russia hoped, after all the agreements were signed by the Ukrainians and approved by the UN. They knew they could not trust the Americans, they took a chance and prepared for plan B.
“Trust but verify.”
Not “other words”. – those are your words and R. L. was saying something quite different.
In other words, both NATO and Russia used Minsk as a cover to prepare for full war instead of just the Donbas proxy war. Interesting it would be you to acknowledge that.
Putin tried very hard to avoid the war in Ukraine all those years. He did everything to squeeze Donbass back into Ukraine, though neither Donbass, nor Ukraine needed each other. Only prejudiced and ignorant people can’t see the obvious.
As the commenter above written: there was also plan B in case NATO go crazy and push Ukraine to a big war against Donbass, Crimea and Russia.
If anything Russia was meek and submissive in response to what was happening in what was then Eastern Ukraine. Close to doormat status.
We kept crossing and ridiculing his red lines until… well we pushed too far.
“meek and submissive” is a wrong description. Russia wanted to avoid the slaughter. Nothing is meek and submissive about that. That’s how all responsible governments should act. Unfortunately, the goal of NATO leaders was to start a proxy war and Russia couldn’t to prevent it alone.
Putin refused the proposals by Eastern Ukraine to become separate entities with ties to Russia. Twice. Then Kiev prepared for a major assault, with eyes on Crimea.
Eight years of shelling by Kiev, the deaths of 14,000 in Donbas. If not Russia, what country would stop it?
Of course only Russia can stop it.
thank you
In plain English, Zelensky demands UNCONDITONAL SURRENDER, in which he has been supported by Biden and Nuland repeating it and she appears to be in charge.
Zelensky wants to treat Russia the way Germany has been treated twice and Japan once.
There is no way Russia will surrender and be humiliated like that, Russia paid the price for winning WW II not the USA, they will not be humiliated by the clown in Ukraine and a deranged president in DC.
It is remarkable, Russia does not demand HUMILIATING unconditional surrender.
If Politico has been “leaked” to that Ukraine’s offensive is about to fail then we know the war mongers are getting ready to bail.
Politico is the Washington beltway’s mouthpiece that just repeats what the regime wants shared via unofficial press releases (called “leaks” in today’s journalism of hackery).
Macron’s visit to China and his words after has to have been a slap of reality to both Washington and the EU.
Nobody wants a citizen uprising like Macron is having and they know one way to forstall such things is to mouth what he is now saying to help quiet the upset about pensions (we have to work longer to pay for what? Ukraine?).
Joe doesn’t want a revived Occupy with new issues and everyone in the EU don’t want their people marching like they are in France either.
It’s time, after the comedian sends some more draftees to the grinder and loses even more ground in their big offensive, to wind this down and admit Victoria and her ilk in the EU screwed up.
But they’ll claim after that they stopped Putin from taking the whole country on the way to London and eventually here (when did he say that was the objective?) so it was a successful endeavor to stop him where he has been for over a year.
“… they’ll claim after that they stopped Putin from taking the whole country on the way to London ….”
You’ve nailed it, the script for Morning Joe and Rachel Madcow. Whitehouse lawyers of the same tribe who invented the double-think China policy loop-hole of “strategic ambiguity” are at it now with “kinetic ceasefire”.
As soon as I heard the claims I could forsee the spin after it is over.
Everyone will claim victory and the comedian will retire to his embezzled millions.
As time goes on – I see no way for Russia to win this unless
Western voters demand peace talks and/or China actively supports Russia far more.
Russia’s economy has contracted 3 quarters in a row.
And they are already down to re-equipping, obsolete T-62’s from storage.
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-growth-annual
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/04/putins-nightmare-comes-true-2000-tanks-destroyed-in-ukraine/
Russia is going broke and (slowly) running out of weapons.
Whereas Ukraine is getting lots of cash. And their Soviet-era weapons systems are being replaced (slowly) with modern, NATO ones.
The longer this goes – the worse Russia’s situation gets.
BTW – I have no passion/hatred for either Russia or Ukraine.
The longer this goes on, the worse everyone’s situation gets. Russia has historically been willing and able to endure much to win wars eventually.
Ukraine is getting a lot of American cash, but that won’t flow forever, and Russia now holds and just has to keep Ukraine’s best farmland and resources to make Ukraine even less financially viable than they were 2 years ago when they were stealing Russian energy.
“Russia has historically been willing and able to endure much to win wars eventually.”
In recent decades, Russia has a mixed record in “extended” wars. It lost in Afghanistan after ten years, and won in Chechnya after ten years. Ukraine is at nine years and counting.
“It lost in Afghanistan” – last Russian soldier left Afghanistan in February 1989. After that, Najibullah government ruled Kabul yet other three years until 1992. Compare it with pro-American government which collapsed even before Americans left Afghanistan. Do you remember that USSR disintegrated in 1991?
“last Russian soldier left Afghanistan in defeat in February 1989.”
No charge for the fix.
You probably know that what you are writing is a lie. Russian army left after itself Najibullah government in Kabul which lasted more than three years without any military help from Russia. Unlike Americans, Russians left Afghanistan in good order. Gorbachev did it because his government brought the country to the bankruptcy. It had nothing to do with the war in Afghanistan. Just the poor management of the economy and corruption.
It took Americans some twenty years to wreck Afghanistan and the progress women had made under Najibullah. The Russian retreat was orderly. Compare that with the incompetent American retreat after 20 years of war with NATO support. The Biden/American retreat was a disaster of military incompetence. They did not even bother to co-ordinate the retreat with their allies. They told them to use commercial flights for their people.
Or 1 year, depending on how you count it.
1) your point about Russian people historically putting up with hardship is apples and oranges.
You are talking about ww2 when Nazi Germany was exterminating Soviets. Soviet citizens had no choice but to keep fighting. Literally.
And in WW1? They surrendered to Germany in 1917. They did not ‘fight through hardship’ then.
And this is NOT about Russian survival.
This is about a war in Ukraine.
TOTALLY different than Germany’s invasion of the USSR in WW2.
2) Russia’s economy is slowly collapsing.
They have had three quarters of consecutive GDP contraction.
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-growth-annual
They cannot keep that up forever.
And how long will her people put up with it? Simply for a war in Ukraine with uncertain goals? And military stagnation on the ground? Whilst losing tens of thousands of their children?
3) Look at this ‘big winter offensive’ that Russia planned? It barely went anywhere.
And now they are forced to refit obsolete T-62 tanks that were sitting in storage for decades.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-to-modernize-800-vintage-t-62-tanks-due-to-ukraine-losses-report
Whereas Ukraine is getting modern, state-of-the-art, Abrams/Leopard 2 tanks from NATO. Small numbers now. But more are promised.
I am totally against the war. And I detest neocons that are whispering in Biden’s senile ear. But facts are facts.
And the facts are obvious.
Russia alone CANNOT defeat Ukraine so long as NATO has their back.
Period.
There is a lot more history of Russia being invaded from Europe than the world wars. GDP is one imperfect way to measure an economy, purchasing power is another and the US has its own woes. How long will Americans keep paying this price just to cost Russia as well? With “news” media in the decrepit state of largely serving the information operations needs of governments, we have few if any obvious facts. NATO will not permanently have Ukraine’s back with blank checks and no balances, so it doesn’t matter if NATO could stave off Russian victory forever if perfectly unified. NATO is not permanently unified and would be foolish if they were, indifferent to the costs and risks.
Ukraine keeps running out of stuff, claims they will win if we give them even more and better stuff (they promise) yet the Russians can pull tanks out of storage and retrofit them just like the West does with their older stuff.
To say that the Russians doing so is a sign of collapse is State Department spin, nothing more.
Then there’s the new stuff:
Russia To Deploy ‘Heavy Attack’ Drones With FAB-100 Bombs That Can Wreak Havoc On Ukraine’s Ground Forces
Russia appears set to deploy heavy attack drones capable of carrying 100-kg FAB-100 bombs.
Russia’s former Roscosmos chief, Dimitri Rogozin, who now leads the “Tsar’s Wolves” (A team of military experts who provide “technical assistance” to troops in Donbas), stated in a Telegram post today that Russia would soon field drones with “serious weapons – from 82 and 120-mm mortar mines to FAB-100.” https://eurasiantimes.com/russia-to-deploy-heavy-attack-drones-with-100-kg-bombs/ https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FZwWnb_XgAIj86q?format=png&name=900×900.
By the way: Russian tank production is said to be 20 per month. How many tanks is Ukraine is receiving each month?
1) where is a link to factual proof that Ukraine is ACTUALLY ‘running out of stuff’.
Of course, Ukraine is going to cry they are running out of ‘stuff’. What better way to get NATO to give them more ‘stuff’?
Do you seriously think they are going to say: ‘No…we have plenty of ammunition. We are good.’?
2) heavy attack drones? Big deal. Lots of nations are already producing tons of these.
You are not seriously suggesting that these will ‘turn the tide’?
3) Russia is resorting to refitting, OBSOLETE, T-62’s. Because they have no other choice.
Whereas Ukraine is getting better and better tanks from NATO. Abram’s and Leopard 2’s. These are state-of-the-art. Small numbers now. But more are promised.
Soon, NATO may start giving modern combat aircraft. Whilst Russia is replacing their lost combat aircraft with drones.
And NATO can FAR out-manufacture Russia militarily.
Here is just a sample of what NATO has given Ukraine so far.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/03/16/fact-sheet-on-u-s-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9477/CBP-9477.pdf
PLUS – Russia’s economy has had three quarters of negative GDP in a row.
https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-growth-annual
There economy is (slowly) falling apart.
You can dream all you want.
If NATO keeps piling, state-of-the-art weapons systems into Ukraine.
And Russia gets no significant help from China.
Russia CANNOT win (conventionally).
That is a fact.
Ukraine, Russia and China seems to be too much to digest.
The US doesn’t expect Ukraine to regain significant territory
but the US will still purchase munitions (at the american tax-payers expense) from the federally approved bullet stores and send thems bullets directly to the ukraine.
MFs what.
“”the administration (US) has discouraged peace talks and recently came out against the idea of a ceasefire in Ukraine.””
hey america is the good guy!
(ask me about 9/11 because i could go on and on for quite a long time)
Oh Please give us a sample of your “On & ON.” I will be following your every word on & on & on……!!!!!!!!
I think we are precariously on the brink of WWIII.
I am seeing glimmers of hope that people are looking for an off ramp. It looks like the Biden administration has war gamed enough WW3 scenarios to back off from them, and are putting more focus on Sudan, Syria, Israel/Palestine, Taiwan etc. – anywhere but Ukraine.
Russia seems to have moved on as improved relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Brazil, Indonesia, and other nations take higher precedence than the conflict in Ukraine. They still trade with Japan and NATO nations, and are working to sustain and even expand this commerce.
A dramatic victory one way or another in Ukraine could flip things around. I think though that if the US fails to take Crimea, and Russia fails to take Lviv, then things will turn out ok.
The Russians aren’t in, and aren’t likely to get into, any position to take Lviv.
Nor are the Ukrainians in, or likely to get into, any position to take Crimea.
The main questions are whether the Russians will able to retain the two seceded Donbas republics (probably), a land corridor connecting them to Crimea (iffy), and some other parts of the occupied Kherson and Zaphorzhia oblasts (unlikely) when they finally decide to stop beating their heads against the wall.
Why would they not “keep” what they already hold? Kherson south of the river seems to be the most defensible terrain in all Ukraine; and it shields Crimea, and is easily reinforced from Crimea; if I’m the Russians, I’m not giving that up – and, FYI; the “land bridge is part of Zaporizhia oblast.
“and, FYI; the ‘land bridge’ is part of Zaporizhia oblast.”
Correct. Which is why I referred to “other parts” of that oblast.
The Russians won’t keep that stuff because eventually the war has to end, and it won’t end while they’re trying to keep it.
Maybe. I don’t see them giving it back; and I don ‘t see Ukraine being able to take it back; what they now hold seems to be well thought out in terms of important terrain, and they’ve already paid a price for it. Had negotiations been allowed to proceed back in 2022, the Russians might have agreed to withdraw but now? Time will tell, but I don’t see it.
and once again, you’ll proof yourself wrong like you did with Kherson city.
You are probably watching too much Col McGregor and Scott Ritter, two average former Army Officers who have gotten a lot of attention and $ for siding with Russia.
At least they were soldiers, unlike you, who is simply a loser with a zelensky fetish. Lets see if Ukraine actually can counterattack successfully. I doubt it – maybe they need more HIMARS??? Go but them some!
At least they were soldiers? I think they forgot the soldiers part for money. They are just an embarrassment now. Collaborators.
I would put their integrity up against yours any day.
And I’ll take that as a compliment. Thanks.
I’m sure you don’t get many, so you’re welcome.
‘Kherson south of the river seems to be the most defensible terrain in all Ukraine; and it shields Crimea, and is easily reinforced from Crimea”
and that’s what military strategy is for. Find ways around to achieve objectives.
Find any yet? Besides swimming?
I agree 100%. Not likely is correct. But a complete collapse of one army or the other is a possibility with non-zero probability. I am hoping that the final negotiations revolve around the very issues you highlighted, or something similar.
The bad news is that we would leave Ukraine just to start another conflict over Taiwan.
Well, the thing about negotiations is that there have to be things on the table.
Right now, the Russian position and the Ukrainian position are both:
“We get everything we want, you get nothing.”
So there can’t be negotiations.
That will hopefully change if the Russian forces are ever able to secure the seceded Donbas republics. That will allow them to put territory they can’t hold forever anyway (Kherson/Zaphorizhia) “on the table,” leaving Zelenskyy the choice of going back to “frozen conflict” (and, like the Russians, claiming “victory”), or trying to convince the Ukrainian public that it’s worth indefinite hot war and indefinite casualties to take “back” territory that Ukraine hasn’t had since 2014 anyway.
Again, the more of Donbas they take, the more “holdable” Zaporizhe/Kherson becomes, as the as-yet-untaken part of Donbas shields that territory from the north. So I don’t see them giving that back. The parts that were not “holdable” were withdrawn from at the end of last year, Kherson north of the river, and the flat territory outside Kharkov.
So far it’s taken them 14 months to not yet quite take the parts of Donbas they should have taken in 14 days. And when they do take it, it will be all they can do to hold it. Which is why, being unable to hold other stuff, they’ll put that other stuff on the table and commence actual negotiations (or just a unilateral ceasefire and “take it or leave it”).
I see no sign they will be “unable to hold” the other stuff; and certainly no sign Ukraine will be able to take it. Maybe they will, maybe they won’t; I guess we’ll see; but I don’t expect Russia will willingly relinquish anything they’ve taken . What happened last November was in very different circumstances than now, and even that cost the Ukrainians heavily – at least 2 to 1 Russia’s losses, when Ukraine had a near 5 to 1 local advantage in numbers. Now that the numbers are approximately equal, and Russia has had 6 months to dig in, I don’t see where your optimism is coming from.
I guess the question is what you mean by “willingly.”
My constant assumption is that the Russian leadership are not idiots.
Therefore they know that there’s no way the war ends with them in possession of Kherson and Zaporzhia oblasts.
Which means they will give up that territory when they’re “willing” for the war to end.
I guess we’ll see. I am not convinced.
That’s ok. A good plan should always include being prepared for worst case scenario. That said, im not confident, the Kremlin is ready for what’s about to hit their troops.
If what i have seen is correct, Ukraine will punch a giant hole all the way into the coast breaking the land corridor and i’m convinced it will happen.
We will know one way or another in about a month, depending upon when the ground dries.
Russia is definitely ready, and will be bringing their A game. Neither US forces in Crimea nor Russian forces in Kiev by summer’s end would surprise me.
Ukraine says they won’t be successful without more weapons. The west has made it known the weapons won’t get to the point that Ukraine could actually be victorious without the war escalating into a direct conflict with the very countries supplying the weapons. I don’t know why you are seeing what you are seeing.
If we would’ve based wars on individual/group statements, the entire Ukraine would’ve been part of Russia last year.
My opinion is based on 24 years of military service. I know that smaller Armies can do wonders when they have a will to fight for their land. I know indigenous forces can be trained to be better with their existing primitive capabilities and even more when provided with more enhanced weaponry. If my prediction turns out to be wrong, I’ll stand corrected, but right now, I’m a believer based on what I’ve seen so far and not because I’m rooting for Ukraine. I have to remain objective in my Mr. Nobody Analyses.
How much of this can the Ukrainians take before they realize they cannot use the West to take revenge on Russia?
Peace sells, but who’s buying? Surely not US
The US and it`s NATO LACKEYS will use any cease fire to get the Ukrainians into a better bargaining position , just as they used the so called Minsk Agreement to train and arm the Ukrainian NAZIS
I’m preparing for another election to fail if Biden and Trump are the choices. Remember, voting for a lesser evil is still voting for evil. And, right now the evil is so pervasive, I cannot believe the vast majority of Americans and the rest of the West are still asleep, but I guess ignorance really is blissful for all the sheeple.
Finally there is RFK Jr., a shimmer of hope and if nothing else the option of the write in vote, not just a no show. He has enough power and charisma to force a public debate concerning the insane Biden war policies.
Hi Renate
I too was pleased to read that RFK was announcing his candidacy. But we already know that our POTUS is selected, not elected. I hope I’m proven wrong and that a Kennedy (!) can beat out a propped-up cadaver.
If his candidacy opens the door to some form open national debate concerning Ukraine and our many problems here at home which have been neglected for years that alone would be a heroic service to the nation.
He needs all the support he can get. He has courage and his name will force MSM to open the door for him, I hope. Hopefully he can address the the nation.
Thing is, both Obama and Trump campaigned on ending the wars. Obama even said he would, ‘bring the troops home by Christmas.’ But, I do hope there is some hope, because if things don’t turn around quickly, there will be a catastrophe like humanity has never been through before in the form of WWIII and all those H bombs both sides have.
You are right, good will is one thing and the power of the MIC with an army of lobbyists and lots of money is a big stumbling block. RFK Jr. ,a teen, was with his father when he was assassinated while campaigning for an end to the Vietnam war. He must be more aware of the danger than any other candidate. Maybe a sense of duty to the nation makes him do it.
Is this the truth or is it setting expectations very low so that virtually anything can be presented as a victory? That would be the perfect excuse to keep Russia engaged in the West so it could not help China in the East or simply return to development of its own society.
The goal after all is to bleed Russia and bring about regime change and breakup “whatever it takes” or however long it takes
A little like NATO says it was never put or agreed to in writing that they would never expand to Russia’s borders, Russia could make a similar claim that it was never put in writing that they, Russia would never take back Crimea if Ukraine joined hostile forces against Russia.
The US doesn’t think the counteroffensive will succeed. Ukraine doesn’t think the counteroffensive will succeed without more weapons. So, let’s say the US says that they will now supply Ukraine with the needed weaponry to make the counteroffensive be successful. Now, if I’m Russia and I can read, shouldn’t I think that this is it and I’m going to nail their ass before that equipment arrives? I’m new to this play by play before it happens type of war.
You have lots of company too. Biden needs to get out of Ukraine if he wants a proxy war with China, his neocons are crazy, but how crazy are they?
Russia has already prepared for the Ukrainian offensive to fail……Russia expects NATO to intervene.
Is this true or is it simply the Biden neocons lowballing Ukraine’s chances so that anything looks sufficiently “victorious” to retain public support for the war against the evil Putin?
Lowballing would make sense. But they are not that smart, functional, or remotely self aware enough for such a tactic.
They do it all the time leading up to election debates. They will be saying soon that if Biden can stumble to the podium in the first debate, he wins.
And if Zelensky can take back one square inch of the 20% of Ukrainian territory he has lost, he surely deserves another 130 billion dollars.
Meanwhile the Putin bashers in this discussion will tell us that it
BTW in the context of Western and US discussions, for that is where we dwell, there is only ONE thing that the US propaganda apparatus demands.
That one labels Putin a thug or some such.
It does not matter that one says the same about Biden. In fact that provides cover for the essential prowar position of demonizing “the other” in this case Putin.
Our essential task in the US is to end the war. Putin bashing sets back that task. It is great for virtue signaling or for ensuring that the FBI does not go after you as it has done the Uhuru activists in FL.
But the bottom line is it strengthens the case for war. Not a good thing.
Let’s mind our own biz, get the US (and NATO, same thing) out of there and let Russia and the Ukrainians settle things for themselves.
The US did not expect Ukraine to do as well as it did. Just like the Russians, they expected Ukraine’s leaders to flee with whatever they could take with them.
That was the original plan. The West expected an insurgency, and prepared for it. The West expected that insurgency would be a marker holding their place while the economic war forced regime change in Russia.
Thus, if the offensive fails, the West just goes back to Plan A.
Of course, the economic war failed too. They don’t seem to have a plan for that, hence the talk of embargo.
Ukraine without Crimea and Donbass is made up almost entirely of people so Western they make the Poles look reasonable.
Putin’s only chance to keep Ukraine neutral was to keep it together. He did try that, minus Crimea only when he was unable to safeguard its bases otherwise.
Now, removal of the pro-Russian element of the population means that if Ukraine exists it will be radically hostile, like Poland on steroids. We must expect that the only outcome Putin will accept will neuter the rump state, so it is not a threat. That was not part of his original demands, no part of Minsk 2. He tried the Ukraine-as-Austria approach, and the West has made that impossible. So now, it is off the table, to use Blinken’s own words.