The Pentagon is discussing the possibility of sending a small number of additional troops to Ukraine to step up the tracking of weapons being sent into the country, NBC News reported on Monday.
Back in October, the Pentagon said that US military personnel based at the US embassy in Kyiv began conducting “onsite” weapons inspections in Ukraine. According to NBC, the US currently has a couple of dozen troops inside Ukraine, including a small number involved in tracking weapons.
The current tracking effort involves traveling outside of Kyiv to scan bar codes on weapons and other supplies, although US officials say the US troops are not traveling to the frontlines.
The NBC report said that Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is considering increasing this small troop presence to enhance the oversight mission but also to ensure there are “experts in country to help Ukraine use critical weapons systems,” signaling they may be doing more than tracking weapons.
POLITICO reported Wednesday that the US is considering other measures to increase oversight, including relying on Ukrainian troops to do their own inspections. Citing a State Department cable from September, POLITICO said the US was struggling to track weapons and was preparing to hire an unnamed private firm to launch a three-year initiative to aid in oversight.
“Above all, kinetic activity and active combat between Ukrainian and Russian forces create an environment in which standard verification measures are sometimes impracticable or impossible,” US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink said in the cable.
Senior US officials speaking to NBC insisted that any additional US troop presence would be small, likely involving only numbers in single digits. But the move would reflect Washington’s growing involvement in the war, and one former US official described the plan as “classic mission creep.”
The weapons inspectors are the only US military presence inside Ukraine that has been confirmed by the Pentagon. The Intercept recently reported that US special operations forces and CIA personnel are also inside the country, but the US hasn’t officially acknowledged the covert campaign.
The Biden administration is considering enhancing weapons tracking inside Ukraine due to increasing pressure from Republicans over the lack of oversight. Even hawkish Republicans who have criticized the administration for not sending enough weapons to Ukraine say that they favor more accountability for the tens of billions the US has spent on the war.
And when some of those “advisors” come home in body bags or as amputees, the commanders will insist that more troops are needed to “protect our heroes.”
I ‘m sure I’ve seen this before in my rather long life. Maybe it will come to me . . . 😟
For the lucky few who just lose limbs. From all the mercs sent to Ukraine since the start of SMO, I don’t see many returning, even in pieces. That could mean they are still alive or they are fertilizer.
It’s difficult to know how accurate any of the casualty numbers we see may be, but it’s clear that there are lots of killed and wounded.
The recent news about a thousand or more known fatalities among Polish “volunteers” sems credible and if it’s true, it’s likely that casualties are high among mercs.
I remember some social media reports from US and UK vets who embarked on soldier-of-fortune adventures early in the fighting. They learned very quickly that life under artillery bombardment is nothing like chasing small groups of lightly armed bad guys in the desert.
Combined arms fighting against a competent, professional opponent is scary, ugly and bloody.
Don’t imagine we will see a flood of the elites kids on the battlefront of the war that their dads and moms are so fond of.
What? No “Fortunate Sons”?
They are supposedly not advisors but there to track weapons – i.e. the kind of control the Republicans wanted to impose on the weapons transfers to make sure that they were not sold of to third parties – so not supposed to go anywhere near the frontlines.
Did you not actually read either the post above the line or my post that quoted it, Michael? Or do think that the task of helping with the use of critical weapons isn’t in the job descriptions of advisors?
I had focused on the point:
But if they are supposed to ensure there are “experts in country to help Ukraine use critical weapons systems,”, I think you could be justified in thinking that this would likely bring them closer to the frontlines.
in 1969 at Counter Insurgency School (Coronado Island, San Diego), we soon-to-become advisers to the South Vietnamese military had to read from Bernard Fall’s book Street Without Joy: the French Debacle in Indochina, published in 1961. Looks like “Here we go again” (or Groundhog Day) 62 years later:
“Throughout the first half of 1961, the situation in South Vietnam simply went from bad to worse. A special study mission, sent to Viet-Nam to make recommendations on suitable reform, came forth with little else but some minor military improvements and an eighteen-month “counter-insurgency plan” which was outrun by events by the time it left the mimeograph machine.”
“The creation of a U.S. Military Assistance Command, Vietnam (USMACV) under General Paul D. Harkins on February 9, 1962, marked the opening date of America’s direct involvement in the new Indochina war. Although the word “adviser” is carefully added to the name of every American operating in the country, it soon acquired the quotation marks usually reserved for assertions no one takes quite seriously any longer. Since 1961 Americans die in Viet-Nam, and in American uniforms. And they die fighting.”
Allegedly there where 25,000 US Military advisor`s in Vietnam when the war finally began , the young lives wasted by politicians is a stain on the US ranking along side the one of the Native Americans .
I hear you my friend. I also am old enough to have directly experienced the complete incompetence and mental issues of our so-called political leadership.
Vietnam?……………………………..My husband was there…
Bingo.
Those of us for whom that nastiness was the formative foundation of young adulthood can’t help but react with disgust and apprehension when we read lines such as the one I quoted.
Yes, …Waste deep in the Big Muddy, …., eh? Let’s hope the sequel is better this time, i.e., if we’re still around.
“The big fool says to push on”.
The escalation is unavoidable. The war already started.
Yes, the war, by now, has a (deadly) life of its own and escalation is almost automatic.
Of course, the US could, at least theoretically, stop driving the escalation, but that’s just not who we are.
I feel like I read this exact thing like a month ago here. Except that it had already happened.
Deja vu all over again.
For many of us, older folks, it’s a powerful flashback. Not the kind you want.
“protect our heroes.”
See how far we have progressed(/s)? We didn’t call them heroes back then. Had to have the TV war in ’91 to get over the hump.
Yup. I updated the expression. In the discussions leading up to the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution in ’64 and the introduction of significant numbers of US combat troops in ’65, and when subsequent setbacks and failures led to sending more troops, LBJ and others in his inner circle spoke repeatedly of the need to “protect our boys.”
Once they started it, the people who thought they could stop it at will discovered that they were wrong. That’s a fairly standard feature of wars, but humans can be slow learners.
The “hero” label, “Thank you for your service,” endless glorification everywhere and always (including nonsense like baseball teams in camo uniforms), etc. are all elements of what has so far been a really successful strategy. Conscription had to end because draftees coming home in boxes from a war that was obviously not defensive or in support of any important national interest upset the masses and provoked opposition, but that meant finding ways to enhance recruitment and one excellent way turns out to be seducing young (and not so young) adults with promises of being treated as heroes.
And the ticker tape parades Red.
A Nam vet once sadly told me, WE didn’t get no parade.
Except for the lifers (of course), only a distinct minority of troops returning from ‘Nam would have wanted parades or thought parades would be appropriate. Those who did want them, and who felt/still feel unappreciated, tend to be people who really believed it when they were told they were fighting for freedom against evil Communism. Some still believe that. In some ways, reality has been especially cruel to them.
So, we are preparing ourselves against Russia and China?….
Would that qualify as a World War?….
It might qualify as World War Last.
It sure as hell will be, it will be packed with nuclear weapons and God knows what else?! Maybe sh-t we haven’t even heard of………………………………………..
Oh h*ll, they are probably already there!
Agreed. After all, they were there starting shortly after the US overthrew Yanukovych’s government in 2014.
They were there, but after Russian intervention, most of them left Ukraine. Now, little by little, American military presence is growing.
Hmm. It’s as if the US Army has never heard of LoJack or GPS.
Hmm. It’s as if the US Army has never heard of LoJack or GPS.
Great idea, put a LoJack or GPS tracker on a tank. What can go wrong with that idea? Oh wait, the enemy might use it to locate the tank.
It’s 2022. None of the parties to the conflict in Ukraine has any difficulty locating tanks.
True as we have seen 1000s of Russian tanks split in two by a single hit.
Seen thousands of those hits? Wow. I’ve missed that. Can you provide us with citations/links?
The enemy generally knows where the tanks are already. But, for the sake of argument, encryption is also readily available.
The most important reason to audit the equipment sent to Ukraine, in my opinion, is to verify that it actually gets used by the AFU. I have little doubt that tracking devices would be removed before the equipment is sold on the black market. But that, in itself, would quantify the size of the problem.
Encryption is not problem. It is the electronic signal that is being given off.
I understand your point. But I have to wonder if the Russians have the infrastructure to distinguish and triangulate a microburst pulse originating on the wrong side of the front.
On the other hand, pretty simple to put a bunch of those GPS trackers out on cheap simple mobile drone robot platforms. The real tank can be identified by code. Cheaper to lose a drone than a tank or another expensive piece of equipment. Those artillery rounds are expensive. Why hasn’t anyone thought of this? Oh wait. It has been. For a couple of decades. Known as electronic warfare.
Better yet: don’t send the equipment to a corrupt country to defend a fake democracy in the first place!
An interesting idea. And the Russian just might be dumb enough to fall for it.
We must expect the Russians to make a special effort to target US and NATO troops inside Ukraine. It is another way to send the “message” that they have been sending in every way possible.
Simple mission creep .
More like the camel with his nose under the tent, which would imply purposeful action toward an ultimate goal rather than just drifting in a conflict. The Anglo-Zionist Empire has been at war with Russia for centuries. There’s nothing haphazard about anything we’ve done in Ukraine.
“The Anglo-Zionist Empire has been at war with Russia for centuries” – in WW2 Americans helped Russia to defeat Nazis.
That was only a temporary arrangement with the Bolshies who were also at war with the Russian people.
Stalin destroyed Bolsheviks in 1937-38. For Russian people, Stalin dictatorship was much better than the dictatorship of Bolsheviks. Nazis were even worse than Bolsheviks. Americans at that time were more friendly to Russia than Brits. Churchill wanted a separate peace with Nazi and to carry on the war together with Germans against Russia. Americans didn’t supported such a plan.
Hmmmmm. Sounds so much like mission creep. Next thing you know, there’s military “advisors’ everywhere. Vietnam and 58K+ KIA comes to mind.
Bidenbis surrounded by fanatics that want Ukraine. We are the ones who do not get it. One way or another they will find excuses to send American luves there to play out their fantasies and provide a tripwire for a larger war. Beware ideological fanatics. They are alwats extremely liberal with other peoples’ money and somebody else’s children’s lives.
On one hand, the ideological fanatics are considering the establishment of the multi-polar world as their own defeat and a geopolitical catastrophe. On the other hand, MIC oligarchs are making money anyway independently of the outcome of the wars.
Ahhh, just a small number of troops, and then a few more troops to make sure the original troops are ‘safe’ and then some more troops to…
And I would imagine we’ll need some air cover to protect those troops.
And more troops to supply the other troops. And more troops to protect the supply lines. And medical personal troops to take care of any troops that get sick or injured.
The echoes of the misadventure in Vietnam are clear and unmistakable.
One important difference is that, in ramping up US involvement in Vietnam, American decision-makers were careful to calibrate escalation steps to avoid triggering intervention by China. In this case, the Americans appear to be daring Russia to respond to escalatory steps.
Huh???? US troops are already in Ukraine.
Russia has been very clear that any NATO troops in Ukraine will be legitimate targets. Russians are literally salivating at the possibility, so far its only been NATO troops disguised as mercenaries. And they cant get out of the front lines quick enough.
NATO might want to be a little carefull, there are 500,000 troops in Belarus and they can literally go south into Ukraine and secure the Western borders with Poland. This would isolate all NATO troops in Ukraine. Russia currently has a 10:1 kill ration and has 25 million reserves, remind me again how many NATO has?
Your problem likely is that very few believe in the Russian propaganda figures you are peddling.
I have read and fact checked both US and Russian propaganda. As much as can be done.
US stories are like the WMD and Iraqis bayonetting babies and Yellowcake stories from 2 decades ago. Complete fabrication.
Russian stories are mostly true. The US success stories, like the bridge we damaged in the Crimea, are discussed for MONTHS after the event happened. They talk about the exact specifications of Himar missile systems and systems, their strengths, and their weaknesses.
Bad news for the US: reports out of Kiev are mostly verifying that this particular Russian propaganda is mostly true.
As stated your problem is that few believe in the Russian propaganda – I have few problems thinking that you accept the Russian position many/most others are not convinced by it – nor were many by the US propaganda.
If that is the case you must have a link to this report!?
We can believe in Santa Claus as a culture. It does not make him real.
The US taking action based upon false information does not make that information true. It makes the US do self-harming activities, like spending 20 years in Afghanistan.
20 years ago the pro-American patriotic imperative was to support the US invasion of Afghanistan. What is pro-US about engaging in activities that harm the US???
As far as specific links saying that anything about what US really happening on the battlefield??? None exist. I read sources from different points of view and try to make sense of things.
Can we? You may, but as I indicated most of the rest of us do not believe in the Russian propaganda and many of us (I hope most but I do worry) do not believe in the US propaganda either.
It was my distinct feeling that the US acted upon some correct information i.e. that OBL was in Afghanistan and did not bother with analyzing the potential bad things that could spring from acting on that info. As for them analyzing any long term perspectives – it looked like they were doing this with a somewhat less than open mind.
I could not tell you I was against the war on Afghanistan and the one on Iraq – I’m not a US citizen and I am not in general interested in the US taking a more activist policy in the world – I could not tell you if this would be seen as anti or pro-US.
As do I, but you did indicate that there was a report:
Bad news for the US: reports out of Kiev are mostly verifying that this particular Russian propaganda is mostly true.
So I kind of hoped that such a report actually existed not just in Santa world 🙂
Regarding supporting MSM reports: one report was that lots of artillery units are in Poland being repaired. I no longer can link that article because I have no idea when or where I even read it. This, to me, verified Russian claims of artillery units used by Ukrainians were breaking down at high rates.
As far as battle field results moving forward? Apparently winter has been mild in Ukraine. The mud is thick. Odds of a December winter offensive for either side (other than isolated assaults) is low.
So no real battle ground proof will happen until late January at the earliest I supect.
While this is true it has not been denied by the west, and indeed it was to be expected – the barrel life of the artillery pieces being expended as shells are being fired – so quite a few pieces would have to be circled around for this kind of maintenance – add to this there has been a not insignificant number of battle damaged units.
I believe I can find the western sources for this information – it is not proof that the Russian propaganda is correct, just that in battle there will be increased need for maintenance – Oryx have the figures for damaged and destroyed weapons – going by those numbers (and they are only the number verified by pictures) it is without doubt that a lot of guns had to be repaired – it has been known that Ukrainian weapons are being repaired in NATO countries.
Agreed.
I concur.
Additional blowback to Americans taking actions based upon false information.
9/11: The US is the shining city on the hill. Paris newspaper has headline “We are all Americans now ”
Americans believe and act in false information.
Several years later: Americans wonder out loud “Why do they hate us so much?”
That was the initial feeling then the bumbling idiot G. Bush stepped in and pretty much squashed a lot of good will by statements like ‘either you are with us or you are against us’ basically wanting to have a completely free hands to go after any one he fancied were his enemies – following that up with the very weak evidence (false as many of us suspected) that Iraq was part of the ‘axis of evil’ and that pretty much punctured much of the remaining goodwill.
After the Maidan the leaders of two right wing Nazi organisations were given control of four ministries. For example, Andriy Parubiy, co-founder of the fascist Social National Party (SNPU), which later changed its name to Svoboda, became the new top commander of the National Defense and Security Council. (covering the military, police, courts and intelligence apparatus). The CIA renamed the organisation to “Svoboda,” meaning “Freedom,” to make it more acceptable to Westerners.
Dmytro Yarosh, Right Sector commander, was second-in-command of the National Defense and Security Council. This is the man who organized and ran Ukraine’s February 22nd Coup in Kiev, and the May 2nd Massacre of Its Opponents in Odessa, for Barack Obama. Yarosh’s teams carried out the most violent operations for the CIA in Ukraine. They were responsible for the atrocities committed in the Donbass, for the crimes against humanity.
Oleh Tyahnybok, co founder of the SNPU and currently the party leader of Svoboda, A self confessed neo-Nazi. He opposed the introduction of the Russian language as the second official state language; called for the lustration of former communist officials. He also proposed recognition of the fighting role of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists and Ukrainian Insurgent Army during World War II.
Washington had chosen to spearhead Nazi’s into positions of authority. Under a “regime of indirect rule”, they take their orders on crucial military and foreign policy issues including the deployment of troops directed against the Russian federation, from the the US State Department, the Pentagon and NATO. From fabricating an “invasion,” to the claims of “threatened” lives, to the labeling of Russians as “subhuman,” Zelenski, Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk all recited fully the script of Nazism used to justify their historical supreme crimes against humanity.
NATO’s forces in eastern Ukraine are not fighting an “invasion,” but constitute an invading force themselves, making incursions into eastern Ukraine and holding territory only through unmitigated brutality against local populations who are intent on resisting NATO’s fascism.
So a bit of whataboutery, but as it is not withut interest in and by itself:
Are or were any of those persons still in charge of these ministries after the 2019 election?
Andriy Parubiy – resigned in August 2014!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andriy_Parubiy
Dmytro Yarosh:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmytro_Yarosh
So held no post between 2019 and the build up to the Russian invasion!
Oleh Tyahnybok:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleh_Tyahnybok
So not one of these men or their political parties were in power after 2019 and only one of them got any position and that only after Putin had built up an invasion force on the border of Ukraine.
It’s important to note that in addition to 4 ministerial posts, Svoboda also got the job of the prosecutor general to cover up the sniper attacks on the Maidan.
Meet Margarita Seidler, female voice
In the end of 2013, I worked in an Orthodox Christian public organization called Narodny Sobor (People’s Convention). I worked in its Kiev office, helping to publish the group’s newspaper. So, I was a witness to the Maidan ‘revolution’ from the beginning to the end. Our office was located on Grushevsky Street, where the bitterest fighting took place. We shared our building with the pro-Yanukovich Party of Regions, so when the people whom the Western media called ‘the heroes of Maidan’ stormed that building and even set it on fire, I was saved just by a happy coincidence – I was not in the office that day. A woman secretary in the Party of Regions’ office was murdered then and the head of our office was beaten nearly to death by metal bars.
After that, it became clear to my colleagues and me that political opposition to the new regime was simply not possible. We went to Crimea, where self-defense groups were formed. I joined one of these groups. We helped to make sure the referendum on Crimea’s return to Russia would be conducted in a fair way. I can assure you that no one forced Crimeans to vote for their reunification with Russia. They stood in lines from 6 o’clock in the morning to cast their vote. At the end of June 2014, I went to Donbass, where I saw what the Ukrainian army and the so called National Guard did to Slavyansk.
So, having lived through all of that, I can assure you that what Mr. Poroshenko and the so called Maidan activists did – all of that resembled Hitler’s actions in the 1930s.
Tapped phone communication among Berkut officers during the Maidan shootings made available to Monitor by a Ukrainian radio expert, show that the Berkut were taken entirely by surprise by the snipers’ action. One Berkut officer is heard asking his colleagues “Who fired there? Our people do not fire on unarmed people. “Another says a bit later:” He was shot by someone, but not by us… are there more snipers? And who are they?”
Video recordings show that the shots were fired from the Ukraina Hotel—as Monitor was told by an eyewitness of the events, the shots were fired from the eighth and ninth floor of the hotel, and that the snipers must have been professionals. But the hotel was firmly in the hands of the Maidan movement that day, which just in the morning of Feb. 20 had introduced ID card controls and only let in people who had a key to one of the hotel rooms.
Boyenger, a native of South Carolina whose active military service spanned four years from 2006-2010, said he made the decision to join the current conflict out of solidarity with Ukraine, which he cited as a key US ally. He was in Kiev in February 2104 and ran a crew of up to 50 NATO Mercenaries for US/NATO who shot police and civilians in the Maidan. Prior to officially joining the battalion “Azov”, Boyenger spent five months in 2015 as a volunteer instructor for other fascist battalions, teaching Kiev’s worst elements essential combat skills.
On February 14, 2018, Russian news agency RIA Novosti released an article “Shoot at Everybody on Maidan: Georgian Snipers Tell about Masterminds”. The article involves interviews with Tristan Tsitelashvili, Koba Nergadze and Alexander Revazishvili. Nergadze and Revazishvili recollect the details of their arrival in Kiev, receiving firearms and instructions. They note that they opened fire on the protesters from Hotel Ukraina and Conservatoire upon the instructions of Mikheil Saakashvili, Mamuka Mamulashvili, as well as Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, Andriy Parubiy and Chairman of the National Security and Defense Committee, Sergei Pashinski. They also claim in the interview that American instructor, Brian Christopher Boyenger also participated in the developments.
BTW The same false flag operation the US undertook in Venezuela.
Most accurate, strictly factual un-entanglement of the Maidan sniper mystery. It can be made an excellent dramatisation, which should be broadcasted on all European news channels as soon as possible.
But I am sure the creeps that run the bbc news disservice to the long-suffering ordinary Brits would rather hang themselves than broadcast one single word of truth on the subject.
“The report said that Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is
considering increasing this small troop presence to enhance the
oversight mission but also to ensure there are “experts in country to
help Ukraine use critical weapons systems,” signaling they may be doing more than tracking weapons.”
This is what happens when an unqualified poser is placed in a position of responsibility.
If these troops are helping “Ukraine use critical weapons systems,” like the Patriot missiles, then they are fair targets and soon the body bags will contain this cannon fodder.
Austin is not a poser. He has an agenda and he is moving towards it steadily.
He is moving us into situations that maximize revenue for Raytheon. He is a proven expert at it. Do not underestimate him.
Austin is a disgusting POS!
Just like his predecessors and whoever succeeds him.
“Ten days before the Odesa tragedy a secret meeting was held in Kiev, chaired by the incumbent president Olexander Turchinov, to prepare a special operation in Odessa. Present were minister of internal affairs Arsen Avakov, the head of the Ukrainian Security Service Valentin Nalivaychenko, and the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Andriy Parubiy. Ukrainian oligarch Ihor Kolomoiskiy, the Kiev-appointed head of regional administration of the Dnepropetrovsk region, was consulted in regard to the operation.
During that meeting Arsen Avakov has reportedly came up with the idea of using football hooligans, known as “ultras,” in the operation. Ever since his time as the head of the Kharkov regional administration he has worked closely with the fans leaders, whom he continued to sponsor even from his new home in Italy. Kolomoisky temporarily delivered his private “Dnieper-1” Battalion under the command of law-enforcement officials in Odessa and also authorized a cash payment of $5,000 for “each pro-Russian separatist” killed during the special operation.
A couple of days before the operation in Odessa Andriy Parubiy brought dozens of bullet-proof vests to local ultra-nationalists. Ultranationalist militants from the extremist Ukrainian National Assembly (UNA-UNSO), who could be recognized by their red armbands, were also used during the operation. They were assigned a key role in the staging of the provocations: they masqueraded as the defenders of the tent city on Kulikovo Field, and then lured its occupants into the House of Trade Unions to be slaughtered.
Fifteen roadblocks were set up outside of Odessa, secured by militants under the personal command of Kolomoisky’s “Dnieper-1” Battalion, as well as Right Sector’s thugs from Dnepropetrovsk and the western regions of Ukraine. In addition, two military units from the Self-Defense of Maidan arrived in Odessa, under the command of the acting head of the administration of the president, Sergey Pashinsky – the same man who was caught with a sniper rifle in the trunk of his car on Feb. 18 on Independence Square (Maidan) in Kiev.
The role of the Odessa police forces in the operation was personally directed by the head of the regional police, Petr Lutsyuk, and his deputy Dmitry Fucheji.
The DOW is down over 900 pts. this morning. Talk of a recession in 2023 is filling the airwaves. Maybe a good hard recession (or depression) is just what this country needs to wake up and quit sending money and lethal weaponry to Ukraine and bring an end to this disastrous war. When people are struggling to make ends meet at home they aren’t in favor of gifting money and weapons overseas.
We are heading for a recession (possibly even a depression) lets assume that this leads to the west ending its backing of Ukraine – that would mean
1) millions more Ukrainian refugees in EU,
2) sanctions on Russia for a very extended period (potentially decades)
3) if 2 is not working out to ruin Russia’s economy then there will be a conflict with China over Taiwan
4) if China takes Taiwan (in then highly likely) there’ll be huge costs moving microprocessor production elsewhere
5) the recession would likely move to a full blown depression decades to us being anywhere as rich as before.
I’d be interested in if you have any issues with this chain and if so where you think the chain is likely broken and why. I should add that I believe that your suggestion that the people will be unwilling to finance a war in Ukraine when facing deep hardship at home is correct.
I think you have an overly optimistic scenario there, but at least we would be alive.
In two generations, the next attempt at creating a prosperous nation will occur. Well one or more nations. Either way, the people living in the territory currently known as the United States would be able to create their own futures.
Do not worry the Russians are not suicidal – i.e. they will not sacrifice their live as a nation just because the west would not allow them to annex 4 oblasts in Russia – i.e. nuclear war will only happen by accident – and hypersonic missiles is going to make war by accident much more likely (even more so if the Russians are allowed to take parts of Ukraine without sanctions).
1. It is the fighting in Ukraine that is driving refugees to European nations. If the West were to withdraw support for Ukraine to continue the battle, it would end very quickly. There might, of course, continue to be new refugees from Ukraine, but in a recession/depression there might well also be new refugees from . . . all over.
2. Perhaps you haven’t noticed, but the anti-Russian sanctions regime is causing much more damage to the Western nations imposing the sanctions than to Russia. They are damaging, but can be and are being dealt with. The same is true of Iran.
3. Why do you think conflict over Taiwan depends on the effect of sanctions against Russia? Makes no sense to me.
4. I’m pretty sure that microprocessor production in Taiwan would continue in the wake of reunification with the PRC. No doubt some TSMC operations will be moving in any case, but so what?
5. Not necessary to respond since the preceding points are insubstantial.
There is a huge incentive for people to flee rump Ukraine it is not an economically sustainable ‘unit’ having just suffered a major war all Ukrainians would have a huge incentive to flee for a more affluent life in EU – if we abandon our support for them and the writing is thus on the wall – any family who can would flee – i.e. send the women ahead and get the men to join when they are free to leave a defeated rump Ukraine.
That is arguably not true, but even if true the fact that the west can absorb much more damage and still be much richer still counts – finally it ignores the idea that it is not possible to go back to the situation pre war – that world is dead, if we do not sanction (and to a large extend even when we do) the world will be entering a phase of much reduced trade and much increased military spending.
If we cannot resist the Russians there is no hope we can resist the Chinese, the reason that they have not taken Taiwan is that the economic fallout would make taking Taiwan a bad idea. Thus no sanctions on Russia equals a much better economic prospect for taking back Taiwan.
Yes but our firms would not be investing in it and our military would insist on home sourcing the production – we cannot be dependent on our potential enemies for products vital to our military.
So, often, your posts read as if they might appear in speech bubbles for a cartoon version of a thoroughly-indoctrinated American “patriot” parroting official talking points, convinced that we, indisputably the Good Guys, must seek out and vanquish “potential enemies” everywhere on the globe. It’s tiresome, Michael.
It is when you have to stick to insults that you should know that you have lost the debate on arguments.
As for #1 I think the Ukrainians may come to realize that they are better off under Putin’s rule than Zelensky’s rule. They may be emigrating to Russia until things get resolved. Of course those Ukrainians that want to be like the decadent West will go west.
At any rate, I think the U.S. is going to find itself in deep shit.
I think that we’ll see a million more refugees flee this winter. But there is a caveat. Europe is in deeper trouble than we are, and that could lead to immigration quotas, reduced benefits for refugees, and grass roots demands to end the sanctions that raise the cost of energy and food.
I believe Russia has already turned its back on Europe, and that the sanctions are literally driving manufacturers that require high energy inputs to move to India (Arcelor Mittal) and to China (Volkswagen, BMW, BASF)
China has already mobilized to put an end to Taiwan’s domination of semiconductors with $143 billion to accelerate their own chip industry, and ASML (Netherlands) is pushing back hard on US efforts to ruin their sales of photolithography machines to China. If I read the tea leaves correctly, US efforts to stir up the independence movement in Taiwan will cease the moment they realize that China doesn’t need Taiwan for chips anymore.
You may very well be right, the point I’m making is that they will become permanent residents if Ukraine is forced to cede territory, and to their number you then have to add their husbands and sons as they have a right to come through the right to family reunion.
Difficult to know, whether the people will realize that ending the sanctions will only make things worse as it’ll turn a hopefully temporary problem into a permanent one. Plus it is far from sure that Putin would reliably open for the energy supplies – more importantly Russian oil is already trading considerably below the price cap and Brent is at about its 2019 high.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil
Russia started this process in 2014, the high energy prices have only tipped a decision for manufactures which was already in the pipeline, as the European energy/Environmental policies have been driving their costs up above that of the rest of the world for a long while now – their problem is that this is a ‘tax/fee’ issue so even if as I indicate oil prices (energy) are back down their costs would persist on account of policies.
To change this the European countries will have to implement a CO2 tax/duty on imported goods as their energy policies will otherwise drive more and more companies abroad – this process predates the SMO by years.
As I point out we cannot have chips essential to our military supplied by what is seen as a very likely enemy – so if you are right then the cost of home sourcing is already baked into the pie – but I do not see this in the political pipeline yet
Taiwan is independent now and the US is not stirring anything up there, China’s desire to take back Taiwan is completely independent of the chip production – they (to some degree rightly) sees Taiwan as part of their country, so that idea that they may at some time in the future be able to produce and design their own chips is not a factor.
Whether the Republic of China is independent of the Peoples Republic of China has been in the eyes of the beholder. Officially, the United States considers both sides of the Taiwan strait to be China. We do not consider Taiwan to be a sovereign country. But we also don’t consider the People’s Republic of China to have sovereignty over Taiwan. US diplomatic ties with Taiwan were formally severed in 1979.
But both Presidents Trump and Biden said they endorse the one China policy while simultaneously escalating the occurrences of military fleets passing through the Strait of Taiwan based on the premise that it is international water. The lifting of rules that prohibit senior level contact between the US and Taiwan; the escalating arms sales to Taiwan; the visits by Speaker Pelosi and other legislators, are undeniable indications that we are intentionally antagonizing China and the possibility of US recognition of their sovereignty.
= = = =
Biden has gone far beyond an effort to eliminate reliance upon semiconductors manufactured by a foreign country. His sanctions on the export of manufacturing capability to China is an attempt to deprive China of its ability to do the same. More significantly, in my opinion, it is an attempt by the US government to give a competitive edge to US companies who compete with Chinese companies in the global market. That feels especially true for both Huawei Telecom and ASML semiconductor. If I’m right, the national security argument is nothing more than a convenient way to justify Presidential interference in trade matters without Congressional approval.
Have I indicated for one moment that China’s claim to Taiwan is somehow illegitimate? What remains is that the US is not prepared for the loss of Taiwan.
China has been ‘escalating’ its incursion of Taiwanese airspace – so the tit for tat has to go up – it is to avoid the mistake of communication between George Bush and Saddam Hussein – you and I may not like it but it is batter than war.
The US would not go to this level of conflict if China was not seen as an enemy to the extend it is Xi being an autocrat has a lot to do with this. As in the US does not have similar problems (approaching armed conflict) with companies from Taiwan, EU, UK or other friendly nations effectively dominating the market for production of certain ‘things’ – they actually rely upon such a division of labor.
The US has a long history of discovering “enemies” in places where US investors seek assistance in dealing with impediments in other countries. The banana republics, the secession of Panama from Columbia, and the overthrow of the King of Hawaii are early examples.
I also think that our last President has a tendency to think of 𝐚𝐧𝐲 competitor as an enemy. For example, I have little doubt that Trump would have intervened against Sony in the Betamax vs VHS controversy.
I think Huawei was targeted because they beat US companies to market and were positioned to set design standards for 5G telecom.
Yes and? Are you implying that the Chinese and US do not have diverging interests even without any invertor concerns? Are you claiming that the Chinese do not have issues with the other countries bordering the south China sea?
Sure Trump started trade wars left and right – still a very different thing from starting shooting wars.
That may have been one of the reasons – but the primary reason that most in EU do not want Huawei in control of vital infrastructure, but have less problems with other foreign companies in that kind of control is that Chinese companies are subject to state control.
In EU we have also prevented certain US companies from storing data in the US for the same reason – i.e. the US law requires them to hand over information in violation of EU privacy laws – so this is not only a thing we reserve for enemies, but basically any state that runs afoul of the privacy legislation we have.
Yes. I’m saying that the aggressive actions taken by the US against China are driven by business interests. And I’m not aware of any indications that China is interested in a shooting war with the US.
The US and the EU don’t have to shut competitors out of the market to control their infrastructure. Here is an example. https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=91906064
Your example of the EU preventing US companies from storing data in the US is another example of how regulators can enforce policies without trying to force a foreign company into bankruptcy.
No one is claiming that China is interested in a shooting war with the US – what gave you that idea? what China is interested in (and very much so) is taking Taiwan back, if all other means have failed then even by force.
No one claimed that they had to do so – what I did show you was that EU (and US) does at times force companies to play by EU/national rules which can force the companies to act different.
The example was supposed to show you how we act when the business interests are the only concern – that is not how we act with Russia or China – this is thus evidence that your claim: ‘that the aggressive actions taken by the US against China are driven by business interests‘ – is at best only partially or also right, but that there is far more at the bottom of this.
“No one claimed that they had to do so – what I did show you was that EU (and US) does at times force companies to play by EU/national rules which can force the companies to act different.”
Perhaps I misunderstood your comments. Do Over. I think Trump tried to bankrupt Huawei because they were positioned to become the global leader in 5G technology. You correctly said that both the EU and the US can force companies to play by the rules. So, if there really was something foul about the Huawei product that threatened national security, it could have been handled by regulators without using export controls that denied Huawei access to critical inputs.
I think that by attempting to prohibit the sale of cutting edge photolithography machines to ASML, Biden is doing the same. This is not about National Security. It’s about tampering with the market to undercut a global competitor.
That is rather my point, if the action was driven by ‘ordinary’ security concerns or normal protectionism then regulations would have been quite enough – i.e. the justification for these actions look more like defense or security concerns so not driven (exclusively) by commercial interests.
Has ASML agreed to keep this technology from the Chinese? because last I looked the ban was justified exactly because ASML was tranferring/selling to China
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-05/us-pushing-for-asml-to-stop-selling-key-chipmaking-gear-to-china
So yes this is very much about National security (it is also about competition though).
I assume that ASML is cooperating with the US under protest. Their CEO recently told the press that it was contradictory that U.S. chip manufacturers are able to sell their most advanced chips to Chinese customers, while ASML is only able to sell older chip making equipment.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/ceo-dutch-chip-equipment-maker-asml-questions-us-imposed-export-rules-china-2022-12-13/?fbclid=IwAR3VRmb5gAyn7ahC9mtWi3EYdnzBbCeimIdJ76tCPtM4f2xFi7OnjQEx3TY
China already produces 7 nanometer chips. The US intends to deny China the ability to produce 3 nanometer chips. The advantage to the 3 nanometer chip is that it contains more components per square inch than the 7 nanometer chip. The US stance would let us put more processing power into a smaller box and would deny China the ability to do the same. I have yet to see how that could meaningfully impact national security. More significantly, there is really no reason to believe that the US will succeed in preventing China from developing 3 nanometer chips. At best, the policy will only delay mass production by a few months. Meanwhile, the ban significantly harms ASML sales revenue without compensation.
Yes as mentioned the US is not free from commercial incentives as-well as national security ones.
Are the Chinese though – last I heard they were not at all happy to have these sanctions imposed on them just this year and as for them breaking into the 7 nm market it seems a bit premature to claim that they can actually do so in a commercially viable way nor indeed that they can do so in a flexible way:
https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/01/column_7nm_chips_china/
Why is this not self-evident?
It will delay it probably by years – as pointed out the 7 Nm chip they have produced is a demonstration one and the ability to design ad produce others not yet shown – sure the Chinese will achieve this at some point, but not as fast as you presume (or at the very least we should hope not).
I seriously doubt that anybody on either side of the pond believes that we’re sending fleets of military vessels through those waters for any reason other than to intimidate China. But, for those who disagree, I wonder how they would feel if China sent a similar fleet through the Panama Canal or the Gulf of Mexico.
If you rephrase it as scare China away from trying to take back Taiwan by force then I believe all would agree.
The main purpose of US regime vessels’ navigation through the Taiwan Strait is to try to goad the Beijing regime into attacking Taiwan.
So far, they haven’t taken the bait, which suggests that Xi (or at least his advisors) may be smarter than Putin (or at least his advisors).
When the US regime tries to get you to go to war, that means the US regime thinks you’re not in very good shape to win that war.
For those closer to reality, we’re heading into a major depression.
It may be a blessing in disguise as it may put a stop to the U.S. waging war with Russia.
Well, it’s good to be hopeful, but war is widely understood to be an excellent way to recover from economic recessions and depressions. It works best for warriors whose home turf is far from the battlefields. Kinda like . . . you know. (So far, of course.)
And it will be Biden’s depression, a well deserved accolade to his stupidity and irresponsible grasp at the golden ring prior to lapsing into historical irrelevance.
The conditions leading up to this have been building for over two generations. It is definitely a truly bipartisan event.
And lapsing into a coma, if we’re lucky.
Mary, that’s already happening.
Sticker shock at the grocery store gets worse every week.
Inflation is typically stated as a comparison of the current prices with those of the same month in the previous year. But that approach doesn’t work well when prices are increasing EVERY month. So, I compared today’s prices with the prices in Biden’s FIRST month in office. We are up a whopping 16.5%
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/cpiw.html
(Sarcasm alert) Bill Clinton: “It depends on what the meaning of the word ‘is’ is.” “Small?” It depends on what the meaning of “small” is “small.” It was “small” on 10/31/22 (not a de ja vu). Now, it’s a bigger “small” but still “small.” Reminds me of John Kerry telling us in 2013 that the U.S. attack on Syria would be “unbelievably small.” How “unbelievably small” was it? It was so small that Obama was still dropping more than 12,000 bombs on Syria in 2016. For my three stooges, no, this was not Russian propaganda.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-president-barack-obama-bomb-map-drone-wars-strikes-20000-pakistan-middle-east-afghanistan-a7534851.html
classic mission creep <--- my first thought before I saw it. Vietnam started out with advisors and ended up with 50,000 dead Americans and millions of murdered people in North and South Vietnam. When I asked a Vietnam Veteran if he had heard of Operation Phoenix, he sarcastically replied, "Ya, KILL THEM ALL."
It’s not “tracking weapons” so much as it’s “painting targets.”
Exactly.
How long before these Murkins are “boots on the ground”?
Tick…tick….tick….
I look forward to US boots on the ground……they wont be there long. The only long term peaceful way forward is a military defeat for US/NATO.
Like Nazi Germany, Nazi America will suffer the same fate.
Doom you are likely correct.
And what happens when those American ‘observers’ are killed, and they’re outed as active military advisors and combatants? Is Washington going to have a stroke over ‘Americans being killed’ in the Ukraine by Russians? Wait- it’s not our war, and we’re making the conscious decision to put our troops in harm’s way, with them knowing they’re being used at best as pawns in a game, or at worst as bait being dangled in front of the Russians. Either way, our troops deserve better- and we as a nation deserve better leaders than those who chose this path for us with regard to the Ukraine.
Them getting killed is the whole idea. A very effective way to escalate the war.
One act of fascism more than any other in Ukraine was pivotal in the fomenting of the uprising by ethnic Russians. The Kiev regime trucked in bus loads of thugs with the sole outcome of murdering any and all opposition. On May 2nd, 2014 there was a bloody massacre in Odessa where, at least 48 people were killed in the House of Trade Unions. The organizers of the massacre were radical Ukrainian nationalists and fascists who support the regime established in the Kiev after the coup in February 2014. Fleeing from the crowd of armed fascists which greatly outnumbered them, the Anti-Maidan protesters tried to take refuge in the House of Trade Unions.
The Ukrainian fascists attacked the House of Trade Unions with Molotov cocktails, igniting a fire that caused many of those inside the building to flee outside. There angry Ukrainian fascists beat and killed them. Others who observed this remained inside until they either, burned to death, suffocated or jumped out of windows to their deaths. Others who remained inside were hunted down and murdered in cold blood.
Coverup and denial followed a day Odessans won’t forget. Eyewitnesses and survivors remember best of all. A woman explained she “personally saw with her own eyes how a man of maybe around 40 – they cut his throat. They pushed him on the ground and cut his throat – and they shouted, ‘Glory to Ukraine.’ ”
“Everything happened so quickly. Someone said that we all have to get inside the Trades Union building. Everyone quickly began carrying everything into the building and reinforcing everything inside. When I was on the second floor, I saw many of the pro-Maidan (supporters) gathering around. They surrounded us. They were all around the building. A fire was ignited…I went downstairs and heard shooting inside the building.”
A man was shouting that the Right Sector was coming. Everybody run. I ran into an office. Two men were brought in. They had suffocated. They were dead. “There was not a sound other than the shots. A couple of minutes passed. People inside said “let us in. Let us in. We are with you. They are killing us.
“I was in such a shock. I can’t even describe this to you. I did not expect that anyone could rejoice so much over killing someone. My ears were wringing. We were screaming. We were just begging them not to kill us. They killed everyone they saw. Everyone at once. A man was lying right by my feet. He was covered in blood. They beat him with bats.”
“They took one woman away. I don’t know where. Then as soon as they took me out of an office, I begged them to let me go because I have a small child. They could not care less…I stood there. I saw everything. They were dragging people. I don’t know where they were taking them.”
“When they took me out of an office, I was walking on corpses. Then we went on the stairs and there I only saw blood. I saw bodies in the hallway. They were dragging them. They began shooting. People inside tried to get out to safety. Some of them were shot.
Somehow some eyewitness survived. Most inside the TUH perished. Most others who got out were murdered.
Russian Propaganda: Ukraine has a shortage of artillery shells and other munition.
Here is a source vouching for this.
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zaluzhnyi-ukraine-preparing-new-major-military-operation
It seems to be a legitimate source from Kiev, and uses as its source an article from the Economist. I did not log into the Economist as I do not have an account there, though I could conceivably do that at some point. Here are some of the money lines.
Ukraine’s Armed Forces are preparing a new major military operation, but “it’s not visible yet,” Chief Commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi said in an interview with the Economist.
With the limited resources Ukraine has, it’s very difficult to conduct large-scale military operations, but this one will not require a lot of ammunition, according to Zaluzhnyi. He didn’t provide further details.
So he is going to launch an operation with limited ammunition. The fact that he explicitly states this implies that it is well known that Ukraine is hurting for ammunition – and it sounds like it is more than just artillery shells that are in short supply.
The chief commander added that the number of shells the Ukrainian army has and the allies could provide was very limited. Zaluzhnyi cited Antony Radakin, the head of the U.K. Armed Forces, who had told him that if Ukraine used too much ammunition, Europe “would have nothing to live on.”
First of all he states that Ukraine is severely short on shells – here he specifically restricts the discussion presumably to artillery shells, and goes on to assert that all of Europe is also short on “ammunition”. Possibly more than just artillery shells.
Zaluzhnyi also said that to be able to liberate all territories occupied by Russia since the beginning of the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, Ukraine will need 300 tanks, about 700 infantry fighting vehicles, and 500 howitzers.
300 tanks – the MSM makes a big deal out of plans to send up to 40-50 tanks at a time. Not sure where they would get 300. Presumably the US could send all 300.
500 howitzers – this precisely matches up with Russian propaganda. It is why the effect of the <20 Himars is not so ground breaking.
Assuming that this article is legit, it matches up with Russian propaganda completely. It also supports what I have read on other sites in the past.
I think the article is almost certainly legit. There’s another in Bloomberg that suggest similar realities.
It’s really quite obvious that Ukraine has been suffering from a serious shortage of ammunition for artillery and of rockets and missiles, perhaps with the exception of Stingers and TOWs, which have not made much difference so far.
It’s easy to see why this would be the case. Ukraine has been dependent mostly on stockpiled Soviet-era armaments and has limited production capacity. The same is true for most of the potential donors of the same materiel. The US and Western allies have limited ability to provide alternatives, largely because the allies don’t manufacture all that much themselves and the US has for decades been focused on brushfire wars with relatively small groups of lightly-armed opponents. You just don’t use that many cruise missiles, artillery rounds, or even drones, fighting ISIS or the Taliban. And the Western equipment that is provided requires time-consuming training and doesn’t integrate with existing systems.
Ukraine is being ground down and there’s no obvious way that the grinding can be stopped. It is shameful, vile, for the US-NATO-Collective West to push for the continuation of a hopeless, bloody, brutal campaign, because it cares more about bleeding and weakening Russia than it does about the lives of Ukrainians or the destruction of their country.
And the little ammunition Ukraine has still got is wasted on shelling their own people in eastern Ukraine.
Indeed. Of course, for far too many of them, shelling their eastern brethren is the highest and best use for ammunition.
Do you really mean that?
I absolutely mean it.
“Burn, Colorado, burn!”
G.I , your government has lied to you G.I you know you can’t win this war. GI, your government has abandoned you GI.
Cue the song White Rabbit
Report: US Mulls Sending Small Number of Troops Into Ukraine Just Like in Vietnam
Nothing to worry about, I am sure!