The US will likely return to Subic Bay, Philippines, 30 years after closing what was once the largest US military base in Asia, Kyodo News reported on Thursday.
The US is planning to build new military facilities in the Philippines as part of its effort to confront China in the region and is in talks with Manila to set up five new locations. The construction will be done under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), a military pact between Manila and Washington signed in 2014.
Since the US base in Subic Bay was closed, the area has become a bustling port overseen by the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority (SBMA). Rolen Paulino, the head of the SBMA, told Kyodo that he would be “very surprised” if Subic Bay does not become an EDCA site, as “during war, time is of the essence.”
Thursday marked the 30th anniversary since the US officially closed the base and the SBMA was founded. Subic Bay is on the west coast of the Philippine island of Luzon on the South China Sea and could be the front line for any future conflict with China in the region.
The South China Sea has become a potential flashpoint between the US and China as Beijing, Manila, and several other Southeast Asian countries all have overlapping claims to the waters. The US has rejected most of China’s claims and frequently sails warships into the region to challenge them.
Vice President Kamala Harris visited the Philippines this week, and the White House said a focus of her trip was to work on the expansion of the US military presence under the EDCA. While meeting with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Harris reaffirmed that any attacks on Philippine vessels in the South China Sea would trigger a US response under the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.
Is it just me or does it feel like the US/NATO are looking a problem?…
It’s definitely not just you, Donna.
Not just you. And in several different places.
Nope. I do as well. Sick, isn’t it?
Well since NATO is not in the Pacific I would say it is you.
Was that meant to be snarky?…
Nope. Just answering your question.
Nato wants to go there, too. Corresct me if I am wrong, it was also present on Afghanistan’s Atlantic coast.
damnit i almost called you an idiot before i got it
LOL. Nice joke, but just a joke.
I’ve spent quite a bot of time trying to straighten things out ever since totalitarian Pentagoners tried to send me to Vietnam. Now an old man I’ve switched to fiction. Here’s two seventeen year olds discussing the war near the end of booklet one…
… Then he told Pam about being pulled over by the police for hurrying to the beach to find out what the president said.
Pam was thrilled that Howie was hurrying to find her but didn’t speak to that. Instead, she pulled her summer school notes out of her beach bag. She fluttered a few pages in the note book and found the place. “Here it is,” she said. “The speech was awful. My first sentence is, ‘Pompous ass.’ They are as I wrote next, ‘Arrogant fools who want to contain China.’ What does that even mean?”
Howie shrugged his shoulders and watched a friend get a spectacular ride. Pam followed his gaze. She watched the wave rider and wave. “It’s Dory,” she said, “I like Dory’s style.”
Howie nodded, “Yep. She’s a good surfer. What did the president say about civil liberties in times of war?”
Well,” Pam began, “He rambled on for a almost a half hour and here’s the summary as I wrote it that day. Keep in mind he’s trying to drum up support for his completely unprovoked war on Russia and China;”
“Big Bombers in Australia…
“Them dang Chinese enemies of the shining beacon of American freedom had better get the message to stay away from Russia and get it quick.
“The American people are sick and tired of their jobs being sent to China and are willing to bomb hundreds of millions of totally innocent moms, dads and their children to make their point absolutely clear. Do not forget, above all else, these united states are a brilliant light of democracy.
“Back off all of you pinko commies. The torch of American freedom can incinerate nonbelievers in white hot nuclear explosions before you know it. American democracy is clear on that. Pentagonian civilian morale handlers are grateful for all EuroAmerican people backing defensive war against China, Iran and Russia.
“Adversaries must quit what they are doing and do what they’re told or we will see their ashes on our teevees during dinner dispatches. Do the rules-based order two-step or else. We know what’s best,
“Join up, sign here, and send appreciation to your leaders….”
“President Phil Abuster concluded his speech to resounding cheers and business executive’s applause.” Pam reported all this with a sadly serious face Howie had never seen before.
Howie was stunned. “The president said all that?” he asked. “The US has an unhinged president. He’s creepy, This is way worse than I thought, totally disgusting.”
“Everybody at school says world war three has already started,” Pam responded. “I’m a little scared… World war three is a really dumb idea. What should we do?” She leaned on Howie, just a touch and he felt it.
They fooled me with the Tonkin Gulf Crisis. They did not fool me with WMD, but they did fool our media which was only too willing to be fooled. Again? Not me. But too many. We are in trouble.
I was a young teenager. I didn’t understand much of the background of the Tonkin Gulf incidents and I certainly didn’t know that the second attack, on the Turner Joy, was imaginary. It was entirely obvious to me, though, that”we” were in those waters looking for trouble.
Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.
Remember the Maine, the Lusitania, the golf of Tonkin, the Iraqi yellow cake, all those communists in Central and South America out to overrun our back yard, the latest Russian plan to reconquer Europe – and the world – …. Ah yes, we certainly do have a history of duplicity, don’t we.
Nicely stated OB, nicely stated…. Lie, deny, then alibi…
The Pentagon had decided to intervene and was just looking for an excuse. If not the contrived Tonkin incident, another would have been chosen.
We’ve been in the mire of trouble for over sixty years, but it’s just an extension of what we’ve always done since the beginning. Decimating the culture of the American Indian tribes and the social fabric of our imported slaves was just the domestic version of our eventual foreign policy.
Ukrainian people weren’t enough, now the Philippines People would be next to be sacrificed…!
Another base. Is that 1001?
at least it’s not a moon base.
that we know of.
NAS Cubi Point and Clark AFB can be two fantastic and strategic military bases.
They closed when Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991 and covered the area in ash. This combined with a demand for a large increase in rent by the government of the PI made a pull back to Guam more practical.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_eruption_of_Mount_Pinatubo
Not fantastic since China deployed thousands of ballistic missiles that can pound that base. It’s a horrible location, too close to China and the Philippines will wisely prohibit its use and declare neutrality should war threaten. But they’ll take the jobs and money for now.
If war with China seriously threatens, the US isn’t likely to let the Philippines “prohibit” anything.
I disagree. Subic Bay and Clark AFB were fantastic bases in the perfect location for 46 years from 1945 to 1991.
Guam and San Diego are also in range of Chinese ballistic missiles so the proximity of the PI to Southeast Asia and Taiwan are an overriding factor.
Your logic is good though and proximity of a country to ballistic missiles is a factor to consider. That is exactly what President Putin said about Ukraine hosting NATO!
They were perfect location to support the US efforts in Vietnam, against an enemy which could not hit back that far. None of those circumstances are the same now.
As always for naval warships proximity trumps distance. The closest small US Naval base is in Singapore, but for major ships Guam is the closest naval base and that is too far from the South China Sea and Indian Ocean.
In 1941 the US lost the Philippines to Japan. The Japanese forces that took it were rather small, and the US forces that defended it were a lot more than anything we are likely to send now.
The key to all that was area denial, with the Japanese fast carrier force backed by battleships keeping the US line of communications to the PI at risk, so the US fleet could not just go there.
China and the US now are in the midst of an area denial contest on the same lines of communication. The technical means now include satillites instead of flying boats to watch ocean areas, and ballistic missiles instead of battleships to sink ships, and much more elaborate carriers that might nonetheless be just as vulnerable as were Japan’s at Midway (lost them all).
The strategy is the same. Only the weapons systems are different, and some not really all that different.
The Philippines ought to be careful. The US lost last time they did this.
Don’t forget buoyant soft plastic undersea stingray gliders filled with soft plastic explosives anchored deep in the pacific trench. The recognize ship noise signature and rise to melt holes in their hulls. They are undetectable and cannot miss.
I like to learn more.
Why are they undetectable? Why can they not miss? Since the pressure in the Pacific trench can exceed 10,000 pounds per square inch what plastic is used that can stand such a pressure? And how do they handle noise signature generator decoys?
You like to show off. Is that the same thing?
You are the one who likes to say “learn something about “fill in the blank””. Just taking your advice and asking some simple engineering questions.
I’m not sure anymore whether this was just a passing story in the news. As I remember, the soft gels have a flexible skin that allows for the changing depth squeezes and wing guided buoyancy is the motive source when released.
In another words, you have no idea how this weapon would work, because it does not.
All I now is the snippet I read about it operating at the bottom of the Marianas trench. There was a picture and verbal hints about buoyancy but I have no knowledge about war capabilities or if that relates to the purpose.
There have been ideas floated for going very deep with vehicles that are soft and can like some sea creatures continue to operate just fine when crushed down under pressure, instead of resisting it. However, so far the idea has run into practical difficulties of operating over the whole range of crush sizes. The extremes so far are beyond quick solution, we are not there yet. It is however still something that might be possible.
One model of this is the deep diving of the sperm whale, another the depth change abilities of the giant squid. However, that whale cannot go all the way down, and the giant squid don’t seem to be able to come all the way up (they are still mysteries).
Due to temperature gradients that block sound, it is likely that something very deep would be targeted more at submarines which are themselves under the sound blocking layer, which also might help resolve the question of range of operating depth.
As for decoys, that is a longstanding issue for all mine warfare, and this suggestion is really about mine warfare. With increasing sophistication of signal processing, decoys have less success, but still some.
Certainly there are lessons to be learn from a 80 year old battle. But the situation is not the same and certainly the weapons are not the same. BTW Japan won the first battle of the Philippines in 1942 not 1941.
The Battle began Dec 8, 1941, with bombing, and an initial landing on Batan Island. More landings followed the next day, at Vigan, Aparri, and Gonzaga in northern Luzon. Early on the morning of December 12, the Japanese landed 2,500 men of the 16th Division at Legazpi on southern Luzon. The main attack began early on the morning of December 22 as 43,110 men of the 48th Division and one regiment of the 16th Division, supported by artillery and approximately 90 tanks, landed at three points along the east coast of Lingayen Gulf.
The Japanese did it all without amphibious ships, just cargo ships taken up for very limited conversion.
They were able to do it all because of what we now call area denial, keeping out US naval forces and isolating land and air forces in the PI.
The defense of the Philippines in 1942 was the greatest disaster in US Army history. A Japanese force defeated a much larger American force that had years to prepare a defense due to extreme incompetence by General MacArthur and his fellow senior Generals.
You are assuming that China would win the ariel denial battle against the US. I would not bet against the US arm forces.
I would not go to war on a bet. Reckless.
My point is that this is a choice for the Philippines, and that it could go wrong, very badly wrong. Would it? That is just a bet on things not in their control.
As for the US might, I’d note that the mighty US lost every war it fought for the last 20 years. Some might. Lots of lives and effort and money wasted, lot of hopes and dreams crushed by warmongering.
Why confront and counter China, which works with other countries in a cooperative and win-win manner, unlike the USA which always has to have enemies and fight them?
Aren’t they ramping up kind of BS claims to Pilipino islands? Dust off an map form 1343 and claim that proves we own everything? Stupid move on their part. The loss of trust isn’t compensated for by the military significance of the reef
These idiots do not understand that China’s strategy for penetration always starts with traders.
Filipinos would explain that the Chinese traders arrived a very long time ago, before the Spanish even. They already have key places in Filipino society, including the party that just elected son-of-Marcos. The Chinese-Filipino community was strong in the old Marcos cabal, and much resented.
Ethnic Chinese are 2% of the population yet control 40% of Philippine business.
After our long history of war and oppression, could the son of Marcos be stupid enough to think the US is a friend of his or his country?
The son of Marcos is an organized crime boss looking for his own private interests. If he gets a big enough payoff, he won’t care about other things. The real limit is his view of the US wrecking his golden goose at too cheap a price. I cannot overstate how much my late Filipina wife hated that man and his parents.
Uncle Sam, the planet’s favorite fall guy. Problem is Sam is equipped to take the planet down with him.
And now we have to bear a plague of senility backed by a compliant media entity and an opportunistic mob of “legislators”, all breathlessly reported by smiling corporate call boys and girls.
They swallowed the koolaide OB….
Important read; Jim Douglass’ keynote address https://ratical.org/ratville/JFK/Unspeakable/COPA2009.html#sfn651
I was in the Marines, deployed from Okinawa to PI in late ’83 for a few months. Olongapo City really put the zap on this then-20 year old’s head and (aside from coming very, very close to marrying a *ahem* local lady- anyone remember the Old West #2 bar?) the majority of my time there was a blur of lights, beer, and hot jungle. I thought the Philippines was a beautiful place, but realistically it would be a hellish place to fight a war. (As for the ‘local lady’, the day I was set to ask her to make our ‘arrangements’ more permanent I found out she was already married to a sailor! Sorry if you’re the squid she cheated on- it’s just business 😀 )
“The crying parents tell their children
If you survive, don’t do as we did
A son exclaims there’ll be nothing to do to
Her daughter says she’ll be dead with you
While foreign affairs are screwing us rotten
Line morale has hit rock bottom
Dying embers stand forgotten
And talks of peace were being trodden”–The Fixx
i wrote something else but then i erased it.
anyway that great song has always been appropriate.
here’s a good part =
Our destiny relies on conscience
Red or blue, what’s the difference
The US is mainly a naval and air power and not so much an army power. Today, however, missile technology has taken much of the might out of naval power. So probably China is not too worried. The one think China has made clear is Taiwan can never be independent. This happened once and the island was used to invade China. They have a perfectly legitimate reason to insist on the “One China” policy, defined as “Taiwan is part of China and will never be independent”. It is strange that this should even be an issue for Taiwan. Taiwanese gain nothing from independence except they become dependent on a foreign power, instead of China.
The Taiwanese get one thing from being independent that they would never get from China: It is called freedom.
PS Don’t underestimated the US Army.
This is reported here as though it were a done deal, Not so.
There are discussions – not for opening a full-fledged base as I understand it but for prepositioning weapons there.
But talk is cheap and the Philippines may gab away to keep the US from getting too hostile and doing some kind of regime change op.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/387a84aea9cd36741db66fc9e32ccb781f328ecaaa7bd56e511381f7b22404b5.jpg