Generations of warfare and propping up client states were supposed to give the US broad influence in the Middle East. Energy issues stemming from the Russia-Ukraine War saw the US trying to keep OPEC nations, especially Saudi Arabia, producing at a high level.
OPEC production is focused on profits, and the Saudis are snubbing the US over trying agitate for more oil production. Hopes of swaying Iraq don’t seem to be going well either.
The US had been pressuring Iraq on OPEC production, with implied threats of repercussions. Given Iraq is just a generation removed from being destroyed by US sanctions that could be an important influence.
Instead Iraq’s Foreign Ministry doubled down on supporting OPEC and the Saudis, saying the nation has to protect its interests by working together to stabilize the oil market. A stable oil market does not mean low prices, as the US was hoping.
More in Congress are expressing annoyance at the Saudi defiance on this matter, and while Biden says he views the lack of oil production as a “hostile act,” the near term consequences are likely to be minimal.
The US seems to be trying to manage oil prices with the strategic reserve. This is likely more practical and impactful in the near-term than anything angry diplomacy is liable to pull off.
Since 2014, OPEC countries took it up the keister on behalf of U.S. because was oil independent and the vicious petro fight between Russia and OPEC that brought the price down to $55 per barrel by Feb 2020. This was meant to harm Russia and Iran economically by reducing their revenues not realizing they were harming the dollar in the long run. OPEC learned their lesson. The moment they switch to a petro-BRICS, you can kiss the dollar goodbye. Other countries such as Turkey, Qatar and Iran want to join BRICS system as of late. It was no surprise that the first act by Biden was to dump excess oil reserves, (not to confused with emergency reserves) get rid of fracking, and get U.S. dependent on Saudis again. Blowing up that pipeline was meant to cut Russia off out of Europe and also a futile attempt because Russia will now use Turkstream which includes Qatari and Azari oil to service Europe during their cold winter.
There are other serviceable pipelines from Russia to Germany too. Blinken let the cat out of the bag with is “opportunity” comment. Bloodshed all over the world has its base cause, the FOSSIL FUEL.
Such a magnificent bully we’ve exposed ourselves to be – the very essence of a vibrant democracy.
Truth of ugly is hidden behind pretty displays.
Pipeline business has always been in the state of warfare. Yes, there is an existing pipeline that takes Russian gas by Turk Stream to Turkey, Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary and Austria.
But — Turk Stream came about as a result of US and EU shutting down Russian South Stream pipeline proposal that all countries along the route approved, Why was it shut down? Russia was not allowed to own pipeline and sell gas. The problem for many countries is the cost of paying for pipelines, and were happy for Russia to build them.
EU came with an ingenious plan — EU was finance all segments so that individual countries can be the “owners”. Translated, EU can tell those countries WHOSE gas to trasport,
Before South Stream, Russian fundrd pioeline proposal was shut down — US proposed pipeline NABUCCO also died natural death, as suppliers could not be lined up. Hilary Clinton in her confirmation hearing for Secretary of the State pitched Nabucco as her top project. It was supposed to take massive Turkmenistan reserves by under Caspian pipeline to Azerbaijan. to Georgia, Turkey, Greece to Europe. But Turkmenistan — that at that time sold most gas to Russia was not interested, and Caspian countries did not want Western infrastructure under Caspian. Azerbaijan is happy to taje its gas through Georgia to Turkey, for further sgipping to Eurole via Balkans or under Adriatic to Italy. But Azerbaijsn learned a lesson whe n Georgia — taking revenge against Turkey over Osseta – stopped transiting Azeri gas to Turkey. It was discovered then that Azerbaijan and Russia maintained a functional
connection — so Azeri gas was transported by Russia via Blue Sream to Turkey,
As it stands today. Turk Stream is transporting Russian gas to Austria. It is between Austria and Germany to buy/sell the gas.
US at present cannot lean on these countries — tgis gas is their lifine. And there is no alternative gas. At present, Turkie is the hub — so it can sell Azeri gas or
Russian gas.
The long term plan was to discontinue Russian gas and substitute with Israeli gas. It is supposed to take gas from Israel via underwater pipeline to Greece, bypassing Turkie. But Turkie is not allowing pipeline going through Turkie extended area determined by the Mediterranean shelf.
So. US plan is to cut out Turkey as a hub, and make
Greece a hub. And instead of Russian. Iran or Azerbaijan — transit Israeli and Cypress gas to Greece, and then order countries connevmcting to Turk Stream to stop buying Russian gas fom Turkie , and take Israeli from Greece instead.
This is why Turkie is the target — currency attacked many times, other sanctions on military equipment, etc.
US finally bludgeoned powerless Lebanon to sign up to Israeli definition of maritime border. But it is not likely Turkie will relent on pipeline.