The Joe Biden administration has sent several warnings to Russia via backchannels regarding the possible use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the Washington Post reports. The White House’s messages to Russia have been intentionally nondescript to foster uncertainty in Moscow about what the US would do if Russia deployed its ultimate weapon.
The White House has sent the message several times since the war in Ukraine started, according to the US officials who spoke with the Post. The White House’s communications with the Kremlin have been intentionally vague.
The Biden administration believes these nonspecific threats will deter Russia through "strategic ambiguity." "Strategic ambiguity" is an intentionally unclear policy that causes the enemy not to act out of fear it could cross a red line without knowing it.
For nearly 50 years, the US maintained a policy of "strategic ambiguity" toward Taiwan. By refusing to commit to defending the island, Washington has deterred Taipei from declaring independence. At the same time, suggesting it could defend Taiwan has deterred China from acting more aggressively against the island.
However, Biden has taken steps towards abandoning "strategic ambiguity" towards Taiwan. Since taking office, Biden has said he would go to war for Taipei four times.
President Vladimir Putin warned on Monday that he could order a nuclear strike to defend Russian territory. Putin’s threat was Moscow’s most direct warning it could deploy nukes. "If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will without doubt use all available means to protect Russia and our people – this is not a bluff," Putin said.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev appeared to expand this nuclear umbrella to Ukrainian territories Moscow plans to annex. The Kremlin planned a series of referendums in areas of Ukraine under its control. If the vote goes as expected, those regions will request entrance into Russia, which Moscow will accept.
The Post says it is unclear if the White House reissued the threat after Putin’s statement this week. In January, Moscow and Washington reaffirmed the statement, "nuclear war can never be won, and must never be fought."
Kyle Anzalone is the opinion editor of Antiwar.com, news editor of the Libertarian Institute, and co-host of Conflicts of Interest.
I really don’t think that reminding the West of Russia’s longstanding policy on the use of nuclear weapons constitutes a “threat.” The policy is explicit in Russian MoD publications: Russia may use nuclear weapons if attacked with nuclear weapons or if attack by other means threatens its national integrity. Does anyone believe that any other nuclear power on this planet would do otherwise?
Announcing that the West’s intention is to weaken Russia? That sounds like a threat.
Combined with the referendums, Putin’s declaration is definitely a threat.
Your claim that it’s just a continuation of “longstanding policy” ignores that crucial development.
I’m ignoring nothing, I simply disagree with you.
If I tell you that you’d better give me what I want or I’ll beat you senseless, that’s a threat. If I tell you that, if you attack me, I will use every means available to me to defend myself, terminate the attack, and prevent subsequent attacks, that’s a warning.
You disagree that the pending annexations are new developments?
You aren’t nearly as clever as you seem to think you are. Keep posting nonsense and you may expect to be ignored.
It’s why i ignore you too.
I have no wish to be left out and I am presently in the process of deciding who I am going to ignore. God is at the top of my list and it goes down from there…
Quite the slimy and nasty reply.
That all you got, sport? It’s not much.
“”Quite the slimy and nasty reply.””
really joe, only one hour ago you called Donna Volatile a “hopeless loser”.
which IMO was an actual slimy and nasty reply.
Are you Donna?
Read the thread to see who is trolling?
do i look like Donna? look closely at my avatar because he is waving just at you.
“do i look like Donna?” Probably.
“look closely at my avatar because he is waving just at you.”
No thanks.
Do you go out of your way to be annoying?…
Clearly you do.
Do you have anything of value to state?
Kiss my ass.
Let us know when you do. So far it’s been nadda.
“nadda”
Is that like an ignoramuss knows nadda? 0;-)>
Kiss my ass.
I’ll take that as a no, troll.
Gee, Donna’s been around for awhile. You seem to have just appeared kinda troll like.
“Donna’s been around”
Don’t be so judgy!
You have a way with words…
More on why it’s a crucial development from Scott Ritter: ( U think you may have heard of him.
Putin’s decision to order a partial mobilization of the Russian military, when combined with the decision to conduct the referendums in the Donbass and occupied Ukraine, radically transforms the SMO from a limited-scope operation to one linked to the existential survival of Russia. Once the referenda are conducted, and the results forwarded to the Russian parliament, what is now the territory of Ukraine will, in one fell swoop, become part of the Russian Federation — the Russian homeland.
All Ukrainian forces that are on the territory of the regions to be incorporated into Russia will be viewed as occupiers; and Ukrainian shelling of this territory will be treated as an attack on Russia, triggering a Russian response. Whereas the SMO had, by design, been implemented to preserve Ukrainian civil infrastructure and reduce civilian casualties, a post-SMO military operation will be one configured to destroy an active threat to Mother Russia itself. The gloves will come off.
https://consortiumnews.com/…
Nuclear weapons are a threat, the US is no exception at all, they threaten and have actually used nuclear weapons at the end of WW when they had already won. How perverse from Biden to act as if they would not use their nuclear weapons. They are only a deterrent if others believe you would use them, the US proved they will.
They also reserve the right to strike first, including none nuclear powers.
The constant whining of the most aggressive people is really disgusting. If the kitchen is to hot, get out of the kitchen, Truman said it I think.
Now, if Biden would have renounced the use of nuclear weapons that would have been REAL NEWS. Biden is bad.
You do not approve of democracy?
So you’d be OK with it if the US decided to invade a neighboring country, force many of the inhabitants had become refugees, and then hold a vote to see how many wanted the US to take over? And you would call that democracy?
The US does that all the time and I’m not okay with it. Fourteen thousand Eastern Ukrainians have been killed by Ukrainians since the US helped overthrow the government there in 2014. None of this had to happen.
People will soon say the war against China was totally unpredictable and it’s all China’s fault. That doesn’t have to happen either. The US is collapsing and needs war to divert people’s attention but it’s not working.
“All the time”? When was the last time we did that and then forced the population to vote to join the US? Enlighten me.
You may actually believe Russia is forcing people who were already fighting the US sponsored coup government that overthrew Ukrainian democracy.
Even so; You are presenting a false argument about a false assertion. The Ukrainian government was killing 2,000 people a year in the area that is voting to escape that fate. It is the Ukrainian government that forced the people of eastern Ukraine to seek refuge in Russia and vote to join Russia.
Ukraine was once a free independent country. It is now a tool for the US government to use as it sees fit.
2,000 people a year would indeed be 14,000 over seven years. But the deaths include Ukrainian troops as well as civilians and separatist troops. So clearly the Ukrainian government wasn’t doing ALL that killing.
Correct. ” Only ” ~ 9000 were civilians. Not including the SBU ‘s share.
You make an unsupported assertion to cause doubt.
The numbers are educated estimates, exact numbers in wars or civil wars are never possible.
I didn’t realize only 9,000 were civilians. Negotiations are needed and these figures should be cleared up. Thank you for the correction.
1898, and the US didn’t let the conquered nations vote on it.
The Ukraine regime change is one and Venezuela they tried but they failed now they put sanctions on Venezuela to try again later, they have Navalny in waiting to replace Putin, they rigged Russian elections to put Yeltsin in power too. They did docents of regime changes since WW, numerous regime changes in Latin America alone. Study the US history of conquest, you do know the nation has some 800 military bases worldwide. The US are like leeches, bloodsuckers.
They take over and not ask questions or votes.
How does installing puppet governments strike you?
Russia was responding to Ukraine becoming an obvious exitential threat to its people. Any move toward NATO is a threat to Russia. Who controls NATO placement of nuclear weapons, who controls the firing of them I Ukraine becames a member…???????Russia lost 26 million fighting the Nazis in WWII, and it will not risk losing 26 million in a new war with these same Nazis using American nuclear weapons. When Stoltenburg said NATO wouldnt negotiate with Russia, the die was cast. Russia decided to forclose any possibility of Ukraine danger.
If they had negoiated, Russia would not have invaded. The would have moved their hope to the negotiating table like America did in the Cuban missile crisis when Russia put nuclear missiles in Cuba.
You know that Hitler and Stalin had a nonaggression pact until Hitler invaded Russia, right? They didn’t take on the Nazis out of the good of their hearts.
You think Russia’s democratic?
I think Russia and China are both striving to find a path to democracy.
I also think the United States is a totalitarian military empire. My proof is simple; No real democracy would choose endless war and the overthrowing of other democracies.
“I think Russia and China are both striving to find a path to democracy”
What makes you think that?
Both leaders and their broader leaderships are worried about a global climate collapse leading to 600° temperatures. President Xi has asked the population to send in suggestions. His one simple request started an entire new and broadly unheard of facet of democratic government attempting to focus human intelligence. President Putin is a lawyer attempting to provide a voice to people beset by a distant oppressive government that has been killing two thousand people a year in the eastern provinces. The Russian government is forced by world human consciousness to use advanced democracy in order to comprehend what the people of eastern Ukraine want.
Thanks for the effort but I’m unconvinced.
Russia is moving away from democracy and Putin is a dictator, as is Xi.
Well, you may be correct and, in order to learn more, I have placed an order at my local book store for President Xi’s fourth book titled, “On Governing China.”
As younger person in graduate school I read many books by many authors from all over the world. I continue to do read from around the world in order to learn how other people are attempting to evolve toward democracy.
There is much to learn about democracy and at this time Latin America has become quite advanced. The president of Mexico offering refuge to Julian Assange and providing his family with symbolic keys to Mexico is one example.
Do you think Ukraine is democratic?
Not since 2014.
It’s not “autocracy vs democracy.”
It’s “autocracy vs autocracy”
That’s bloody obvious.
Is your question a joke??????????
It is a puppet of the U.S. and has abandoned even the pretense of being democratic. Z man has seized any senblance of an opposition and being a democracy.
Read in context. It was a reply from someone who asked if someone thought Russia was a democracy..
Isn’t that very apparent?………………………
Your a hopeless loser.
You need to change your user name. peace out-
Good for you.
See you next Tuesday.
Whose “democracy” are you citing when you ask about its approval??
It appears to me that Russia has painted itself into a corner where it must evolve democratically.
The US is not a democracy. What people want has no bearing on policy. Gillens and Page proved that clearly in 2014.
What is “crucial development” to you, Referendums to separate Russian populated regions from Ukraine and protect them within Russia?
How many times did Russia urge the rather thick headed Europeans to imement Minsk agreement and keep Donbas within Ukraine.
? How many times? Too many to count. And why was there an urgent need to change Ukrainian laws and reverse the effexmcts if Nazi policies, and terrorizing population. Dead and disappeared illustrate the nature of Kiev regime. Why do we have such a hard time understanding what life looks like under a regime that hates you for your ethnicity or faith. Why do we intelectualize Nazism — as if it is just some form of extreme right speach?
What I am saying is — Russia did not intervene unless it decided that the regime is very unlikely to change its murderous ways, and that West is shielding them, encouraging them, creating a total atmosphere of impunity.
So far, I do not think that any reasonably informed person would disagree.
What i see as a shock to many – that Russia is not williing to turn over the regions populated by the undesirables back to Kiev control.
I never for a moment believed that Russia would turn them back to our loveable Nazis?
Was was not enough to see what happened
to people in territory taken back during Ukrainian couneroffensive? Many dead Russian people a a result — claiming that these were Russian attrocities!
What was the allternative? Just let Kiev eliminate its undesireable population, calling them terrorists?
Or allow the population to claim their right of self-determination through referendum?
US was a big lover of referendums as a means of dismembering Yugoslavia, US and EU heloed refferendums tii be helc in Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia. Macedonia, Montenegro, Kisivo. With what alacrity did West recognize those new, nationality-based states? Needles to say, those abused and cleansed minorities — whike collective West pretended not to see.
I am really surprised that anyone is surprised. And surprised that so many believe that sovereignty protects evil regimes — when they abuse their power and brutalize helpless.
Yes, impunity works untllbsych a time that somebody stands up and says — no.
Speaking of sovereign Ukraine, if we really wantvto be legalistic, it was uncovered back in 2014 that independent Ukraine never registered its borders with UN. Furthermore, by declaring 2024 to be a revolution not a coup — Ukraine cacelled many treaties, which revolutions do. BUT this means that others can rescind treaties and agrerment as well.
Until such a time that Russia suported Minsk — it VOLUNTARILY continued to honor
Budimpest agreement, Voluntarilyb— as Russia had a rught under international law to abrogate agreements the moment Ukraine abrogated agreements with Russia.
But it did not. Once Minsk died, Russia recognized breakaway enrities,
And proceeed liberating others.
What can Ukraine do noiw? It can start by recognizing the basic rights of its citizens taken away in 2014, Not resdy to do that?
Was will last until either Russia liberates all majority Russian areas, so Kiev is reduced to land locked country, OR West suceeds in defending Nazi impunity, and Russia is
stopped at the current line of contact. Or pushed out, forced to abandon the vulnerable population.
Or war may escallate. Baltic states have for years freely abused its Russian population. They may be a next arena of NATO Russia war.
What
Much of what you write is true but irrelevant to the ultimate goal of preventing nuclear war.
Putin’s speech along with the referendums imply that Russia is extending it’s nuclear umbrella to the breakaway regions. That’s a crucial development.
The nuclear umbrella would be over Russian territories. Unlike the US nuclear umbrella being over half the planet.
And the way to avoid the “crucial development” you refer to was to NOT stage a coup and install a hostile government on the border of the largest nuclear power in the world. Or to not abrogate a agreement and place an aggressive expansive military alliance on Russian borders. Or plan to place missiles on Russian borders that change the strategic balance between the Western governments and Russia.
It would also have been helpful for major Western leaders to not threaten to overthrow the Russian government or dismember the Russian state.
None of this current debacle happened in isolation. The ill advised covert, overt and historical actions of the Western powers are to blame. People who express dismay over Putin REACTING to numerous provocations are being intellectually obtuse.
But we, the human race, are where we are.
I advocate an immediate ceasefire followed by a negotiated settlement that leaves Russia in Crimea and establishes autonomy in the Donbass to protect the human rights of the Russian Ukrainians.
Anglo-American arrogance has prevented that reasonable solution.
Welcome aboard.
More on why it’s a crucial development from Scott Ritter:
Putin’s decision to order a partial mobilization of the Russian military, when combined with the decision to conduct the referendums in the Donbass and occupied Ukraine, radically transforms the SMO from a limited-scope operation to one linked to the existential survival of Russia. Once the referenda are conducted, and the results forwarded to the Russian parliament, what is now the territory of Ukraine will, in one fell swoop, become part of the Russian Federation — the Russian homeland.
All Ukrainian forces that are on the territory of the regions to be incorporated into Russia will be viewed as occupiers; and Ukrainian shelling of this territory will be treated as an attack on Russia, triggering a Russian response. Whereas the SMO had, by design, been implemented to preserve Ukrainian civil infrastructure and reduce civilian casualties, a post-SMO military operation will be one configured to destroy an active threat to Mother Russia itself. The gloves will come off.
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/09/22/scott-ritter-reaping-the-whirlwind/
For what other reason would one have expensive nuclear weapons anyway, certainly not just to look at them.
The subject here is Putin’s warning, not the reason for having nukeas.
Ever heard of deterrence?
What do we think any government has nukes for? Why does the USA modernize and pay billions for nuclear weapons if they would never use them? Where is your logic, please explain.
Putin made sure that Biden does not forget that Russia is an equal nuclear power, big enough to get even with the US.
When Biden threatens consequences to nations if they don’t abide by sanctions he speaks with the unspoken force of the nuclear power, the USA is and the only one ever to have used nuclear weapons.
He does not have to mention it, the whole world knows it.
To act upset about Putin saying it out loud is nothing but cheap propaganda, Putin said what we already know.
Why Putin said it is to REMIND Biden and the American people that Russia is a big nuclear power, able to pay back in kind.
I did explain. We weren’t talking about “why governments have nukes,” we were discussing Putin’s warning. Those are different things.
actually the subject at hand is “White House Sent Multiple Threats to the Kremlin Via Backchannels”
but since when has anybody stuck to the subject at hand?
and why should anybody do so when most of the subjects are nothing more than foolish distractions.
The plan is to destroy Russia`s Economy & Military capeabilities to the point Russia has to beg for Western help and that`s when the yanks will move in to take control of Russian oil , gas ect ect ect ,they came close when Yeltsin was in power but Putin spoilt the party and got rid of them all , one thing is for sure the yanks know how to carry a GRUDGE.
Yup…and considering there’s only one country on earth thats ever nuked anyone…
Yup USA is #1. But when it comes to nukes, being last is best.
Votes under military occupation. Mass graves and torture. Potential first-use of nuclear weapons. Escalation and mass conscription. Deserters fleeing the country. Are we talking Russian atrocities, or merely normal American practice? Putin could have learned his ethics and statecraft at the State Dept instead of the KGB.
Right, classic projection, become a reflex with Washington.
What if the Soviet Union had decided not to confront the German army in WWII, lose 25 million people, instead, reached an agreement to supply Germany with the fuel needed to turn up the wick against the Allies then divide the spoils?
That’s an easy one to answer: The Soviet Union did in fact agree to ally with, rather than confront, Germany in World War Two, and divide Poland between themselves, and did so until Germany broke the agreement and attacked them.
That’s an inconvenient fact that many of the pro-Russia folks prefer to forget.
The more interesting “what if” question is “what if Hitler had chosen to form an economic and military block with the Soviet Union”? For that to come about it was not necessary to invade and divide Poland, which, squeezed between two powerful states, might have joined the block voluntarily. And Chamberlain might have been become a British hero.
The really intriguing part of that “what if” is Japan-China. It would then have been in the interest of Germany and the Soviet Union that Japan be kicked out of China but join the block.
Our nation might have remained neutral and Lindbergh might have continued a national hero.
That scenario would have completely upended FDR’s view of “spheres of influence”. And Britain’s too.
Lastly, under that scenario would some state have developed a nuclear weapon?
The evidence is that Stalin intended to attack Germany at a later date. Hitler beat him to the punch. Such is the brotherhood of psychopaths and war criminals.
I don’t think “Strategic Ambiguity” is going to fool anybody. I also think it’s more likely to lead to conflict than by being plain spoken as Putin has done.
The US wants escalation, clearly.
The US wants “escalation dominance” and to be the last one to escalate.
Of course, Russia will use nukes if Russia faces an existential threat to its state, which implies either a nuclear attack on Russia or a Russian conventional war defeat (good luck with that). Once these new regions are part of Russia, they’re part of Russia. Simple.
Also note, however, that Putin said nothing about using nukes if Ukraine continues attacking the new regions after they join the Russian Federation. Russia has more than enough capability to deal with Ukraine, as the partial mobilization demonstrates. Unless the US or NATO gives Ukraine nukes or uses them against Russia, Russia will not use nukes ever during this war.
So all this panic is ridiculous. Nothing has changed in the Russian nuclear weapons doctrine.
Repeatedly Zelensky threatened to get nuclear weapons, kind of stupid, but he hates Ukraine, he is throwing his nation under the bus and live happily ever after.
It’s time to put forward the proposal that Zelansky should be put on trial for crimes against humanity.
Biden confuses himself to fool Putin.
ha!
Hilarious!
At least Putin and Russia are man enough to say what they will do, while the WEST hides behind ” ambiguity” to appease the Ukrainians so they will continue to fight a war they cannot win
Russia could take out the Ukraine capital and a couple of major cities – like the Americans did in Japan in WW2.
It would then be up to Big mouth Biden to nuke Russia and have America nuked in turn.
That’s exactly what you will say about your loving emperor Putin when he launches the first Nuke.
“Oh, at least he is man enough to kill thousands of innocent people”
You’re describing Harry Truman.
And? Is it more excusable now than it was 80 years ago?
Tempest in a teapot. When we have credible evidence that someone on either side is planning to launch a Nuke, I’ll get back to you.
You’re really into that “manly man” Putin, aren’t you?
No, but you are buying the BS from Biden, no matter what he says, no matter how absurd.
Nonsense, buts clearly nonsense is all you have.
I suspect the nuke strikes would be along the border with NATO, to isolate the rump state that Putin intends to leave to avoid the problems of governing it, and to ensure the damage is to the border regions most hostile to Russia. Of course, he’d leave a proxy government, but he would not blow up the traditional Old Russia center that he needs for that proxy to function for him.
“I suspect the nuke strikes would be along the border with NATO”
That may be where they start, but it won’t be where they end, fool.
Fool eh?
You suggest those strikes would be the first but not the last. So what, you think we would trade DC and NYC for some defense of Ukraine? Not when things get real.
But if we did, I’d be glad to see The Blob die.
“But if we did, I’d be glad to see The Blob die.”
That says all there is to say about your foolish POV.
If we must have a nuclear war, at least kill everyone who was responsible for it. That is not foolish. Unless I suppose, if you are one of them, you think you can kill by the hundreds of millions and then enjoy your win. Dr. Strangelove was a fool, and we laughed.
I’ve edited my own list and I have added people who annoy me…
“If we must have a nuclear war, at least kill everyone who was responsible for it. ”
That’s very wishful thinking and very delusional as well.
Good time to start over Mark!
Either you are a Strategic Nuclear Response expert or great at making shit up.
Im going with the latter.
Negotiated settlement and allowing ethnic Ukrainians to live as demilitarized Austria is/was always an option. Antiwar Radio’s interview of Rodger Waters has it right about Julian Assange, and media conveying the message of the owners. This damn thing happened by the overflight* of Turkish bought drones against the Minsk II agreement. Don’t preach about Russian violation of free speech while Assange is a prisioner.
*line of control separating forces in Donetsk region/oblast.
Yes, but Biden cannot do that, because when he had the chance he instigated this war instead. To reverse course and stop his war would be to admit what he did wrong and to accept defeat. He won’t. Never. Of course it is true, but he would never accept that.
He forcefully supported the Iraq invasion. Not once did he voice any regret. He is a very bellicose man, the most dangerous man on the planet because the USA is a nuclear power. He and the war criminals around him underestimated Russia, Putin does not turn the other cheek, he is no Yeltsin or Navalny.
“The White House’s messages to Russia have been intentionally nondescript to foster uncertainty”
Pretty sure I saw, somewhere or other, US Operation Mysterious Note used letters cut from newspaper headlines and read:
“I wud not do nuclulr boms if I wuz you, chum. Or else … kaboom? Signed, A Friend”
It’s a good day to die.
Healthy cynicism?…
“Strategic Ambiguity” plays exactly like it sounds… Though Bye-Done is being a bit more definitive lately… This situation can easily get out of hand…
One mistake that we all probably make is assuming that public statements — by Biden, by Putin, by any politician — actually represent a regime’s entire policy position.
And we tend to do this even when it’s acknowledged that there are “backchannel” discussions going on, or that one arm of a regime is putting out an opposite message.
That tends to fill up holes of non-knowledge with useless fake knowledge.
For example, because Blinken and Lavrov have only mentioned one discussion since February 24, we tend to assume that Blinken and Lavrov (or assigned underlings with specific instructions) have only talked once since February 24.
For all we know, Biden and Putin have been conferring constantly — through proxies or even directly — on how to help Putin get his tit out of the wringer he stuck it into with the minimum necessary embarrassment and without being deposed.
Biden wants the humiliation and absolute destruction of Russia. Or at least his masters do.
I keep swatting Joe Hill and my ass is getting sore…
Actually, that is exactly what Blinken said. He did not, and has not had anyone else do it. He is proud called their bluff, but it was not a bluff.
He admits this. To simply believe we don’t know he is really that stupid is arguing against the best evidence – his own admission.
“Actually, that is exactly what Blinken said.”
So you believe that Blinken is scrupulously honest?
More nonsense. Putin is quite popular in Russia. Notice that the Russian economy is doing rather well. There aren’t going to be any cold homes or empty shelves in Russian stores. The regime changes the Western countries long for in Russia are indeed going to happen: IN THE COLD AND HUNGRY AND BROKE EU. Not Russia.
The Western narrative is that if Putin were not in charge, then Russia would again be as supine as that country was after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Then the EU would get to loot the carcass of Russia and enslave it’s population. This would, in their fantasy, would put off the collapse of the EU.
The truth is if Putin were no longer in the picture, he would be replaced by much more aggressive leadership. If Russia was broken up, the successor states would end up with nuclear weapons. Almost 100% chance those weapons would end up in the hands of those that would be likely to use them.
“The truth is if Putin were no longer in the picture, he would be replaced by much more aggressive leadership.”
Bingo.
Which is why the US is probably working the back channels to help him both get his tit out of the Ukraine wringer and remain in power, which would be no small feat.
Right. The US is now helping Putin. Or could it be that the DC Psychos have miscalculated have have their collective tits in said wringer?
Given the sanctions failures that have the EU in dire straights and the massive troop losses of Ukraine? I’m going with Western tits being the ones at risk.
They’re all at risk, in a big way. But aside from the risk of nuclear escalation, the risks are different.
The western risk is mostly economic, and it’s probably not something that can be mitigated in the short term. It’s a shit sandwich the west built and the west is going to have to eat.
The conventional military risk seems to actually be minimal on both sides. That is, the Russian army isn’t going to be marching into Warsaw, nor is the Polish army going to be marching into Moscow.
The personal risks escalate as one moves east.
When western politicians fuck up, they get to retire and charge large fees for giving speeches.
Zelenskyy does stand a non-trivial chance of being assassinated by his own Nazis or by Russian operatives, but he’s probably in pretty good shape to retire in comfort to Florida after the military engagement ends if he can survive until then.
Putin is in the worst personal position. The longer it takes for him to find a way to declare “victory,” GTFO of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and establish a line of control that he can hold and that a ceasefire can be based on, the more likely he is to fall out of a window, suffer mechanical difficulties with his limousine that leave it in flaming pieces, have a sudden unpredicted stroke, etc. And he would almost certainly be replaced by one of the hardliners who pushed him into this fiasco in the first place, which neither the west, nor China and India, want to see.
The Chinese and Indian regimes are doing their part to help him publicly, calling for a ceasefire in a way that he can cite as “friendly” pressure to wrap the debacle up if he can get anything resembling a gain out of it to save his own hide. I suppose it’s possible that the only thing devout Catholic Joe Biden is doing on that front is fervently praying for Putin’s continued good health, but that would be surprising.
They’re all at risk, in a big way. But aside from the risk of nuclear escalation, the risks are different.
The western risk is mostly economic, and it’s probably not something that can be mitigated in the short term. It’s a shit sandwich the west built and the west is going to have to eat.
The conventional military risk seems to actually be minimal on both sides. That is, the Russian army isn’t going to be marching into Warsaw, nor is the Polish army going to be marching into Moscow.
The personal risks escalate as one moves east.
When western politicians fuck up, they get to retire and charge large fees for giving speeches.
Zelenskyy does stand a non-trivial chance of being assassinated by his own Nazis or by Russian operatives, but he’s probably in pretty good shape to retire in comfort to Florida after the military engagement ends if he can survive until then.
Putin is in the worst personal position. The longer it takes for him to find a way to declare “victory,” GTFO of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and establish a line of control that he can hold and that a ceasefire can be based on, the more likely he is to fall out of a window, suffer mechanical difficulties with his limousine that leave it in flaming pieces, have a sudden unpredicted stroke, etc. And he would almost certainly be replaced by one of the hardliners who pushed him into this fiasco in the first place, which neither the west, nor China and India, want to see.
The Chinese and Indian regimes are doing their part to help him publicly, calling for a ceasefire in a way that he can cite as “friendly” pressure to wrap the debacle up if he can get anything resembling a gain out of it to save his own hide. I suppose it’s possible that the only thing devout Catholic Joe Biden is doing on that front is fervently praying for Putin’s continued good health, but that would be surprising.
You’re a smart, well-informed and generally thoughtful writer, Thomas. And you’re letting your imagination and your apparently deeply-ingrained hostility toward Russia run rampant.
I’m not “hostile to Russia” at all, and in fact spent the last eight years urging the west not to bring things to the impasse that resulted in the invasion.
But I’m:
1) a realist; and
2) someone who assumes Putin is not batshit insane and is doing the best he can with a bad situation that has a bunch of ways of getting worse.
Hello, I tried to reply but this forum’s announcements via email are not something I have figured out.
Your stats on how many states impede write in efforts by the people operating outside their rules are very interesting yet do not stop my urging for people to get smart and use the numbers. If record turnout registers very low figures for state approved candidates we the people will know we have taken the first step toward establishing a more perfect union. We will know that most people do not like war mongers pushing eternal non stop permanent war.
Some day we will read a suggestion in a forum like this that starts the ball rolling faster and faster.
Or this represents a sea change event in the world order. You are making assumptions that the USA and the Western puppet states are on firm ground. They aren’t. The USA and Western nations has placed their bets on financial control of the world. That control is designed around fiat currencies. Russia and China economics are base d on real things. If China had been truly free market, the game would have already been up. But China is not free market, so it’s taken longer.
The USA and Europe are consumer economies. They can’t even heat their homes or feed their people. They don’t make their own goods and have little to trade. Threats and wars are all they have left.
They’re all at risk, in a big way. But aside from the risk of nuclear escalation, the risks are different.
The western risk is mostly economic, and it’s probably not something that can be mitigated in the short term. It’s a shit sandwich the west built and the west is going to have to eat.
The conventional military risk seems to actually be minimal on both sides. That is, the Russian army isn’t going to be marching into Warsaw, nor is the Polish army going to be marching into Moscow.
The personal risks escalate as one moves east.
When western politicians fuck up, they get to retire and charge large fees for giving speeches.
Zelenskyy does stand a non-trivial chance of being assassinated by his own Nazis or by Russian operatives, but he’s probably in pretty good shape to retire in comfort to Florida after the military engagement ends if he can survive until then.
Putin is in the worst personal position. The longer it takes for him to find a way to declare “victory,” GTFO of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and establish a line of control that he can hold and that a ceasefire can be based on, the more likely he is to fall out of a window, suffer mechanical difficulties with his limousine that leave it in flaming pieces, have a sudden unpredicted stroke, etc. And he would almost certainly be replaced by one of the hardliners who pushed him into this fiasco in the first place, which neither the west, nor China and India, want to see.
The Chinese and Indian regimes are doing their part to help him publicly, calling for a ceasefire in a way that he can cite as “friendly” pressure to wrap the debacle up if he can get anything resembling a gain out of it to save his own hide. I suppose it’s possible that the only thing devout Catholic Joe Biden is doing on that front is fervently praying for Putin’s continued good health, but that would be surprising.
Dear Joe Hill:
You can disagree with me, from here to eternity and welcome but… Could you define your reasons and keep the conversation interesting?…
Biden is the most dangerous man on earth.
America never anticipated the media megphone telegramming the destruction it caused of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Neither it thought that survivors would live to tell the tale.
Like its other brazen anti human activities of galactic scale,it thought it would be able to manage,obfuscate,ignore,dismiss,deny and then do it again like it does with chemical and bilogical agents and accuse other of doing it.
depleted uranium munitions are also considered nuclear weapons.
unless it was uncle sam using them in afganistan & iraq.
I’ve been told that depleted uranium has been fired from ships to US soil.
probably by uncle sam
Yep, that’s what I was told by a sailor.
Hahahah! ”
Multiple Threats”!!! Oh noes!!!
America never anticipated the media megphone telegramming the destruction it caused of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Neither it thought that survivors would live to tell the tale.
Like its other brazen anti human activities of galactic scale,it thought it would be able to manage,obfuscate,ignore,dismiss,deny and then do it again like it does with chemical and bilogical agents and accuse other of doing it.
Strategic ambiguity is a new chess move Iranians reluctantly added to update the pre tv game of chess they invented so long ago.
Iranians are smart, they recognized that when one backs the opponent’s king into a corner, saying “check mate” might cause an unbalanced opponent to knock the game board clean off the table.
Today, in modern times, when one backs a loser opponent into a no-win corner, the winner’s statement is “strategic ambiguity.” This move helps losers avoid tantrums that may cause unintended harm.
“Shah meh”.
The king is dead.
So are the Europeans going to allow the yanks to use nukes on European soil ? , as every one forgot how the fall out from CHERNOBYL covered not only Europe but Britain ad well , time the Europeans started talking to Russians before the yanks go totally insane and kill us all.
Creepy Joe Biden and ilk are desperate.