Al-Qaeda’s Yemen wing has been hitting the Southern Transitional Council (STC) separatists in southern Yemen in recent weeks. Indications are that deals taking pressure off the STC elsewhere may allow them to refocus. This includes a truce with the Houthis.
Fighting has been in Abyan Province, where al-Qaeda now controls local districts after recent fighting. The STC will not only push back there, but also in Shabwa.
Yemen’s al-Qaeda, or al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, has used the Yemen War to gain territory on the periphery, often cooperating with pro-Saudi forces in fighting the Shi’ite Houhis.
With the pro-Saudi side stalemated in South Yemen, they’re increasingly at odds with the UAE-backed STC. Deals are meant to see them power-sharing for the duration of the war, but both sides are fighting almost constantly.
The STC is a serious force in southern Yemen, and keen to maintain itself as a force if and when the war ends, to try to reassert South Yemen.
What a mess. Can’t tell the players without a scorecard.
At least the lords of war are makin’ money money money.
Wasn’t al-Queda, the gift from the U.S., born in Afghanistan. Yes, that Afghanistan.
No, al Queda was a reaction to the basing of US troops in Saudi Arabia ( the holy land) Khobar towers was I believe their first big operation.
Al-Qaeda. The resons for any rebellion MUST NOT BE CONFUSED with the UTILITY these rebellions have and FUNDING for their on going operation.
It is tiresome after all these years of Yemen trashing that we stilm cannot catch a clue.
Yemen is a sacrificial lamb in complicated power struggle. In a same way Ukraine is today.
There are several power plays. And those changed over time. Roughly, 2017 is the watershed year,
Pre-2017 US had Saudi elite cooperation. It was already shaky due to use of Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, and than funding and guiding ISIS as a unified Sunni Salafi movement, avoiding their former fragmentation. Yes, US practically had Mihammed Bin Nayaf, Saudi Crown Prince that replaced helpless Muqrin iby US leaning on the Kingdom. Muqrin was forced — last days in office to declare a limited two month interventiin in Yemen to shore up president Saleh. Of course this was just to get toe in — US got Nayaf into the job, with a clear goal to keep ONE UN recognized Yemen. The real prize was US access to Arabian side of Bab-Al-Mandeb straits. Control of the straits is MORE valuable than control of Suez canal. Why? Because who controls it — controls shipping access to and from
Asia. That wiuld affect Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Egypt
, and of course Yemen.
Trump change of policy in the Midfle East changed the entire Gulf orientation.
ISIS project was to establish a Sunni state taking parts
of Iraq ans Syria. Due to Russia interventiin ISIS was not doing well. And due to Iraq, Iran, Russia intelligence sharing — Iraq provressed against ISIS. Saudi Arabia was paying for it to fullfil US mission, not its own needs. Just like Saudis dispatched Bin Laden to Afghanistan to set up an anti-Soviet “base” (Al-Qaeda) for training of insurgents,
Saudis understood Obama’s deniability — as he only pursued mythical leaders killing only such mythical creatures while ISIS marched on. Including booming sales of oil with Turkish Kurds (our press immediatelly blamed Erdogan, of course). And Tuurkish Kurds recycled the money to take American weapons to Syria.
Saudis had shock. Trump was going to be a hero — ISIS slayer. All the money down the drain, all the Wahhabi establishment investment into ISIS, alm the relutation. Result — coup in Saudi Arabia, Bin Nayef remived and his supporting elite rounded up in Rutz Carlton to get the loyalties straight. Bottom line is — allegiance Council (ruling clans) allointed King’s son Bin Salman.
From day one, US fried to reverse the consequences if the coup, not sucessfuly, Kashoggi murder was orchestrated by the agents from tge Interior Ministry, once run by Bin Nayaf. Attempts at remiving tge new Crown prince failed. So were the attempts to discredit the King by falsely claiming to be senile,
But after June 2017 coup things changed. MBS engaged Egypt and Sudan into alliance on Yemen.
Now the shift occured. US is no longer having Saudis as beneficiaries of Bab Mandeb Straits control — but adversaries. Why would MBS help US get Straits and threaten its shipping from-to Asia?
This is when US namung cinvention habits give it away. No native Al-Qaeda would calm itself AQAP or Mezopotamia or Maghreb.
What was first an Afghan US-Saudi venture in Afghanistan, had become symbol of insurgency, thus reaction to US presence. But eventually became tool in both Saudi and US service. It all depended who paid,
US involved also UAE for a while to get South under control, letting Saudis try to force North into accepting the fictitious unified state. But after UAE reached understanding with Saudis — they withdrew. Giving Southerners freedom to assert secession.
Saudis no linger needed North to tow the line to claim unitary state. For as long as South is not under US control — what UAE was expected to do – SAUDIS were able to cut a ceSe fire with Houthis. And now, Southerners can do that tol. Al-Qaeda was a last ditch effort to divide Southerners. Clearly, whoever their leadership is — is not suicidal, It was for money anyway,
It will take a while longer , but a settlement is coming.
The question is — who controls the island of Socotra. It is still murky. But if Southerners and Houthis can reach a deal in geography. Saudis will be the winners, No party or parties are US allies, thus no foothold on Arabian peninsula.
Keep in mind the change of alliances. At the just cincluded Russia-China led SCO summit in Samarkand, Iran became new permanent member. Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar became new members on partner
level. At the same meeting, new membership applications were accepted. These are Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, Maldives and Myanmar.
Gulf Stares and Iran now have commin interest.