Fighting over the future of South Yemen continues to grow, with fighters of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist movement backed by the UAE, amassing gains in the Shabwa Province, most recently taking the important city of Ataq.
Shabwa has seen a lot of shuffling of local leaders at orders from the pro-Saudi government. The STC and the government have been fighting off and on in recent years, despite attempts at power-sharing.
The most recent focus in Shabwa is to take over oil and natural gas fields, where the Giants Brigade, a very successful STC force, has been overrunning oil fields.
It’s not clear what anyone’s long-term plan is, but the French government is said to be in talks with the UAE about sending Foreign Legion into Shabwa to protect gas exports. The gas would be meant for Europe to replace what gone been missing since the Russia-Ukraine war cut off supplies.
With warring nations keen to get more foreign interest in Yemen, they may see the gas deal as leverage for French involvement. It’s not clear how this is going to shake out, but clearly there is a rush for Shabwa.
It’s more and more confusing when you refer to the pro Saudi faction as the ‘government’.
Force of habit. For years Saudis and US maintained the fiction that the government if interim president Hadi was the only legitimate governent of UNIFIED Yemen. Saudis clung to the fiction as that was the only way to keep the illusion of their rightful protector of the entire Yemen. The illusion fell appart as UAE with US nod (and military sulport) took over the control of various Southern members of STC (Southern Transitional Council).
Since Saudis and Sana’a Houthi government established a string of ceasefires, the fictional Hadi presidency was abolished and a Council established in its place.
Since former North Yemen (Houthis) wanted from
the start the return of their statehood, ie separation from joint state — this new Saudi move is a recognition of that fact. If UAE move is now independent of US maneuvering -/ we may see the contours of an end game,
US may not like it — and remain a spoiler. Unless Saudis and Emirates manage to apoease it.
US goal never changed. Control of Bab Al Mandeb. It will not achieve the goal as Gulf politics changed dramatically. Saudis and Iran are inching towards an agreement. Emirates, the ultimate money heaven, has been inundated with Asian money, and Western influence has
been balanced, Saudis have diversified their economic and political posture more in line with Turkish model.
It is most likely that UAE and Saudis come to terms, and tentatively two stated emerge under Saudi and Emirates “protection”. US will have to be satisfied with friendly relationships, but no US base on the Arabian side of the Straits.
It is a politics that changed dramatically since June 2017, the date US and Saudi Crown Prince were tight allies. Since, trust disappeared, and suspiciions came to fore. Saudis did not trust US control of the Straits, and initiated Iranian contacts to avoud a disasterous scenario of Straits of Hormuz and Bab Al Mandeb being potentially closed. Another deal Saudis are pushing in a pileline through another Southern province, Al Mahra, to have access to open waters not controlled by either straits.
Knowing the region,nothing lioks what it seems, so expect unexpected.