Russia’s State Duma on Tuesday approved a resolution to ask President Vladimir Putin to recognize the breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, known as the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR).
The resolution was put forward by the opposition Communist Party, but it easily passed in a vote of 351-16. In response, Ukraine said Russia’s recognition of the DPR and LPR would mean Moscow’s de facto withdrawal from the Minsk agreements, which were signed in 2014 and 2015 to establish a ceasefire in the Donbas.
Under the Minsk accords, Ukraine agreed to cede autonomy to the DPR and LPR, but that hasn’t happened. When asked about the Duma vote, Putin signaled that he wouldn’t recognize the breakaway republics anytime soon, insisting that the Minsk agreements have not yet been exhausted.
“We are really hoping that both our partners overseas and in Europe, above all, Germany and France, will exert appropriate influence over the current Kyiv authorities,” Putin said.
The Minsk agreements were reached in talks between Ukraine and Russia brokered by Germany and France, a forum known as the Normandy format. Russia and Ukraine held Normandy format talks last week, but the two sides failed to make any progress on the Donbas conflict, although they agreed to hold fresh negotiations again soon.
If Ukraine will not honor the Minsk agreements Donbas has very few options. Russia would be making a mistake to invite Donbas to join Russia as Crimea did since Crimea already was an autonomous province.
Russia recognizing the Donetsk/Luhansk republics isn’t the same as them “joining Russia.” Russia recognizes the United States, Ukraine, and close to 200 other states as well.
A quibble. An “Independent Republic of Donetsk/Luhansk” isn’t viable, would soon enough be wiped out by Kyiv; unless annexed.
How would the UkroNaszis wipe them out? Note: they didn’t manage it in 2014/2015.
Formal ‘recognition’ is just a rubber stamp. In reality it is already in place because Russia has made it clear that it will support the enclaves militarily and because the citizens of the region are de facto ‘Russians’.
That might or might not be the case, but it’s irrelevant to whether recognition is the same thing as annexation or union.
True. But the expected next step would be the two republics holding a referendum a la Crimea. It may be questionable whether Russia would recognize that, however, as Russia seems to want them to stay in Ukraine, albeit more or less autonomous. However, if they are still under threat at that point – as is likely – then Russia would probably grant them citizenship. A large number of citizens there already hold Russian passports.
The next step after that would be to invite Russian forces in to secure the Republics. Again, without a direct threat from the Ukraine forces on the contact line, Russia may or may not agree to that. It wouldn’t actually be necessary as Russia could protect them using cross-border methods.
The value of this resolution is that it gives Putin options if Minsk is ever declared dead. He won’t do it until then, however. Doing it at any time just gives ammunition to those who babble about him wanting to “rebuild the Soviet Union.” But if that’s the only way he can protect the Donbass population, if Minsk is dead, he’ll do it.
Personally I think Minsk is dead, but technically it’s not and can’t be since it is a UN Resolution (unless it is superceded by another UNSC Resolution.)
“Under the Minsk accords, Ukraine agreed to cede autonomy to the DPR and LPR, but that hasn’t happened.” Hence, the shelling.
So many in the US seem to think that Putin, rather than desiring friendly ties with western Europe and with the US, is the cause of our new cold war. I believe most Russians are intelligent enough to understand that US aggression is the greatest threat. A different Russian leader would almost certainly be much more adversarial to the west.
Russian security official says Europe to be responsible for any provocations in Donbass
https://tass.com/world/1404587