As the indirect negotiations between the US and Iran are said to be entering the final stage, anonymous US officials told The Wall Street Journal that Iran’s civilian program is now too advanced that Tehran’s “breakout time” will be less than a year if the JCPOA is revived.
“Breakout time” is a term used in the US and Israel that means the time it would take for Iran to develop a nuclear bomb if they decided to make one. The estimates are generally made to make it appear that Tehran is secretly planning to make a bomb, but after decades of warnings, it still hasn’t happened.
The Journal report said Biden officials “concluded late last year that Iran’s nuclear program had advanced too far to re-create the roughly 12-month so-called breakout period.” The officials say the JCPOA was meant to create a one-year “breakout period,” but the agreement never outlined that.
A JCPOA revival would mean that Iran would reduce its uranium enrichment to 3.67 percent, vastly lower than the 90 percent needed for weapons-grade. Iran is currently enriching some uranium at 60 percent, which is still useless for making a nuclear weapon.
The JCPOA is also verified by strict inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), so there’s no reason to think Iran would suddenly race towards a bomb after agreeing to such strict rules.
The report also said that Washington is willing to lift the “bulk of the sanctions imposed by the Trump administration” in order to revive the JCPOA. US officials have signaled that the two sides could reach a deal soon. The talks are currently on pause but are expected to resume soon.
Just another attempt to justify the eventual US dropping of the JCPOA negotiations. Again, nothing but a circus for the plebes. Also point out that the “bulk of the sanctions imposed by the Trump administration” would still leave considerable sanctions, if I’m not mistaken. And then there’s the requirement of a legally binding commitment to the deal – which the US also refuses.
Read my lips. This. Is. A. Joke. There is zero chance the JCPOA comes back.
Probably you’re right, …but there does seem to be two contradictory geo-strategic theses in the air simultaneously, no?
Not quite zero; Iran is sitting on a ton of accumulated wealth everyone wants a piece of.
The JCPOA or a form of it would ideally be re-instated just long enough for Iran to settle outstanding debts and put down payments on new stuff.
But the window also ideally closes before Iran gets any real goods.
Yet there’s no guarantee that once the world economy gets Iran custom back, that window would be closed. More likely it would expand exponentially.
As is though, Iran’s clandestine trade with the world will eventually soon outgrow any meaningful impact of Western sanctions and render the sanctions moot.
Yes, and that would be good for Iran’s sovereignty. Kind of like Ukraine. Blinken: the sovereignty of Iran
Ukraineis a sacrosanct global principle that must be protected. It’s in the UN Charter! . . .”The Organization is based on the principle of the sovereign equality of all its Members.”Anonymous “Israeli Agents” they meant.
This only goes up to the year 2013. You’d have to at least double the entries if the years after 2013 were included.
1984: West German intelligence sources claim that Iran’s production of a bomb “is entering its final stages.” US Senator Alan Cranston claims Iran is seven years away from making a weapon.
1992: Israeli parliamentarian Benjamin Netanyahu tells his colleagues that Iran is 3 to 5 years from being able to produce a nuclear weapon.
1995: The New York Times reports that US and Israeli officials fear “Iran is much closer to producing nuclear weapons than previously thought” – less than five years away. Netanyahu claims the time frame is three to five years.
1996: Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres claims Iran will have nuclear weapons in four years.
1998: Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld claims Iran could build an ICBM capable of reaching the US within five years.
1999: An Israeli military official claims that Iran will have a nuclear weapon within five years.
2001: The Israeli Minister of Defence claims that Iran will be ready to launch a nuclear weapon in less than four years.
2002: The CIA warns that the danger of nuclear weapons from Iran is higher than during the Cold War, because its missile capability has grown more quickly than expected since 2000 – putting it on par with North Korea.
2003: A high-ranking Israeli military officer tells the Knesset that Iran will have the bomb by 2005 — 17 months away.
2006: A State Department official claims that Iran may be capable of building a nuclear weapon in 16 days.
2008: An Israeli general tells the Cabinet that Iran is “half-way” to enriching enough uranium to build a nuclear weapon and will have a working weapon no later than the end of 2010.
2009: Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak estimates that Iran is 6-18 months away from building an operative nuclear weapon.
2010: Israeli decision-makers believe that Iran is at most 1-3 years away from being able to assemble a nuclear weapon.
2011: IAEA report indicates that Iran could build a nuclear weapon within months.
2013: Israeli intelligence officials claim that Iran could have the bomb by 2015 or 2016.
Two more years, we’ll be at the 40th Anniversary of “Iran is going to have a bomb in five years”. LOL
Proves that you can con almost all of the people almost all of the time.
“Saddam is 45 minutes away from being able to launch his WMDs!”
ZOMG.
Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah…!
All the sanctions are illegal and cruel. Lift them all, and be genuine this time. Obama did NOT lift them last time, according to delegate Prof Marandi, now in the talks.
As richardsetenhack points out, it’s been nearly fourty years since Iran started being a short time away from having a nuke. And there is still no Iranian nuke.
Are the Iranians really, really slow?
Or could it be that they don’t want one?
re: “Breakout time” is a term used in the US and Israel that means the time it would take for Iran to develop a nuclear bomb
No. “breakout” time is defined as how long it would take the country to produce enough fissile material for one nuclear weapon. Iran would need to convert some 250 kilograms of 20 percent enriched uranium into 25 kilograms of the 90 percent enriched uranium needed for a nuclear weapon. They can’t build a nuclear weapon out of gas. The “fissile material” in gas form then must be converted to metal, a difficult and very dangerous process because of the high potential for a critical accident (like a nuclear reactor without shielding) that would kill anyone in the room or nearby.
Then an implosion warhead would have to be constructed. Warheads are complicated little machines. The entire detonation process happens within a tiny fraction of a second so the hard part is constructing a warhead with reliable separation capabilities throughout the various stages. Testing is mandatory to make sure the thing works.
And then they’d have to design a warhead to fit a missile (unless they want to drop their one bomb by airplane or deliver it by ship or donkey cart) – which, last I heard, they don’t have.
And then they’d have to test the bomb, so they’d need at least two (although the designs available by now are probably pretty foolproof – but it’s not not something you’d want to mess up) – or more, which means another 250kg times 2 or 3.
And by that time, the US and Israel and NATO would be bombing them. (The only reason they’re not bombing North Korea is because NK’s million man army would give the US 50,000 casualties in the first 90 days, according to Pentagon war games.)
So, yeah, the whole thing is a massive fiction. Always was, except for a short period when they were afraid Saddam might be getting one.
Bombing Iran would be a huge mistake, which is why they’ve never done it. Obama: “All options are on the table” — repeat every month, because nobody cared. Any offensive action would trigger a reaction including many dead Americans in the Gulf area and at sea.
They’ve never done it because Israel can’t afford it. Hezbollah would destroy Israel’s economy by keeping the population in bomb shelters 24×7 for months. The sanctions war has been their only alternative – at least until Israel can figure out a way to get the US to help them in Lebanon. But Israel won’t stop trying until the US bombs Iran one way or the other.
Yes, that too.
“We have no belief in the atomic bomb and we do not pursue it. Our religious principles forbid the acquisition and use of such weapons of mass murder. We consider them symbols of destruction.”
~ Ayatollah Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran. I can’t find this speech anymore unfortunately. Of course, this is not about just taking them at their word. It’s just that the long time condemnation of nuclear weapons fits with the lack of any evidence of a weapons program. To be honest, while I lament any nuclear proliferation if I were an advisor to him, I would recommend a total change in course with a withdrawal from the NPT and a public nuclear weapons program. Go ahead, strike. Fifth fleet is gone. Iron Dome rendered useless by ballistic missiles.