After a week of diplomatic engagement with the US and NATO, Russia expects a written response to its security proposals by next week.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow won’t wait indefinitely for an answer and stressed the most important security issue for Russia is NATO’s expansion. “They must understand that the key to everything is the guarantee that NATO will not expand eastward,” Lavrov said.
Both the US and NATO have publicly rejected Russia’s demand for NATO not to expand eastward by absorbing Ukraine, and it’s unlikely that they will give Moscow the guarantees it is looking for. Although, back in December, reports said that the Biden administration conveyed to Ukraine that a NATO membership is unlikely to be approved within the next decade.
Lavrov warned that “if our proposals are rejected … we will make a decision on how to ensure our security in a reliable way.”
A day earlier, Lavrov’s deputy, Sergei Ryabkov, wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Russia sending its military to Cuba or Venezuela if the US doesn’t provide security guarantees.
It’s unclear if either country would even welcome a Russian troop deployment, and the US dismissed the warning as “bluster.” But the comments highlight the fact that any Russian deployments near the US would be viewed as a major provocation while US deployments near Russia are the norm.
A lot of people are predicting various things, but other people suggest that whatever Putin does will be unexpected. There are many things he could do, not just in weapons placement but in ratcheting up problems for the US in various places in the world, announcing new weapons, announcing new economic policies that will put pressure on the US or EU.
I don’t anticipate anything “kinetic” any time soon. The one exception to that is if Ukraine does something stupid. It’s a foregone conclusion that if that happens, Ukraine will taken off the board permanently.
I hope that you are right Richard: nothing kinetic in the air but my radar is way up…
If Ukraine becomes a NATO member and/or allows the US to put missiles there Russia would have to invade and take it over.
Ok here is why I believe things are FAR more serious than people realize.
Back in March 2021 Zelensky signed decree No. 117/2021 making it official Ukrainian policy to reclaim Crimea.
Now, since that is currently considered Russian territory, that would mean taking Crimea from Russia by force. Ukraine could never in a million years pull that off.
But they think NATO could do it. Even though NATO cannot admit members undergoing current hostilities or large unresolved territorial disputes, the US has been trying to force Ukraine into NATO anyway.
Now, if Ukraine were to suddenly join Ukraine tomorrow, then it could invoke Article 5 stating it is under attack and Russia is occupying their territory. NATO would agree. They have been saying that for eight years now anyway.
So, if Ukraine joins NATO then Russia is instantly at war with a NATO member and therefore ALL OF NATO.
This is why Russia is so adamant Ukraine cannot join. It could easily set off WW 3 overnight.
Russia has plainly stated they will destroy Ukraine if ever attempts to invade Donbass again or enforce decree No. 117/2021 .
So recently NATO flatly refused to even consider withdrawing forces from Ukraine or anywhere along Russia’s border.
Putin has stated that mean Russia will deal with NATO militarily from now on.
Then to throw gasoline on the fire Stoltenberg declared Ukraine and Georgia have already been admitted to NATO, it is just a matter of time.
Russia will simply not allow NATO to build forces in Ukraine that would threaten Donbass or Crimea.
That means war people!
Excellent point about the Ukraine Crimea law. That move was undoubtedly suggested by the CIA and the neocons as part of their plan first to get Ukraine into NATO. and then when that failed (if it fails) to start a war between Ukraine and Russia. Either way the neocons win their agenda even if Ukraine is destroyed. The neocons couldn’t care less about Ukraine itself, their target is always Russia.
This is the real problem with what everyone is saying: It doesn’t matter what Russia does in advance, if Ukraine starts another offensive on Donbass – which Zelensky really has no choice but to do – Russia will have no choice but to take Ukraine off the board. The neocons think they win if that happens. It doesn’t matter if the neocons are right – what matters is they think they are and they’ll keep trying to do it. So Russia is trapped into a war they don’t want.
And I’m convinced the Russians have figured that out which is why they are fed up with the neocons and the West and they’re going for broke with their treaties. They are getting ahead of the blame by offering the West a way out, knowing the West won’t take it. So as Andrei Martyanov says, the Russians can say, “Well, we told you what we wanted and we warned you what would happen if you didn’t do it.”
I see the war between Ukraine and Russia as inevitable. The only question is whether the nitwits in NATO will get involved. If they had any sense, they’d know from the war games that have been played that they will lose. But the problem is – they *are* nitwits.
Great observations. Ukrainians are just a NATO pawn.
I appreciate all of the observations and opinions, very much… This was nicely presented MW. Many thanks to all.
War…-donna
I smell war in the air…
If Russia pulled this happy horse-sh-t with us, we’d have dropped bombs already, don’t you think?…
I sense a certain smugness by the US/NATO in all of this and it makes my skin crawl.
Are we due for a major war, time wise I mean? With everything else going on, it is all about the timing…
There won’t be any wars….! Insurgencies may occur since we now know CIA role on training the Ukrainian mercenaries…!
Thanks for your thoughts Netman.
No, the collapse of America can only be hidden with war.
That is a valid point Highlander…
True. Why Biden’s handlers are hungry for war.
Insurgency is the US choice, it is not a Russian choice. The Russians have kept the initiative, and they know better than to give it up.
The US side sees only the not-too-painful options for the other side that it is willing to face. It is blind to the choices the other side is likely to take.
Even if the US gave Russia a guarantee, what good would it be? The US word isn’t worth the powder to blow it you know where.
Oh, they know that and Russians even stated something along those lines.
Part of the expected agreement would have been Russian peacekeeping forces installed in Ukraine to prevent any foreign troops from setting new bases.
Similar to Syria.
“Be ware of entrance to a quarrel; but being in, Bear’t that the opposed may beware of thee.”
Polonius’s advice to Laertes–Hamlet–by Shakespeare
That reminds of a quote about Russians and their reluctance to fight, but if they must fight they give 100%.
The demand for a written response looks like it sets up a “casus belli” for the Russian leadership.
Failure to respond OR any likely response will be the same result.
Avoiding conflict is now long odds.
That is entirely on the US, for neglecting all of its many opportunities to change this course. When one drives at high speed into a brick wall, it is not the unmoving wall that is to blame. It is a clearly marked wall, with reflective neon warning tape all over it.