Taiwan’s Defense Ministry released its latest threat assessment which said a Chinese invasion of the island would be very hard due to challenges Beijing would have in landing and transporting troops.
Often missing from the conversation around a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan is the fact that it would require the largest amphibious invasion in history, dwarfing that of the Allied invasion of Normandy on D-Day in 1944.
Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said China’s transport capabilities are currently very limited, and the Chinese military would have to rely on non-military vessels. The report said the Chinese forces would face a high-risk situation since Taiwan’s military has the capability to strongly defend the island’s ports and airports.
“However, the nation’s military strongly defends ports and airports, and they will not be easy to occupy in a short time. Landing operations will face extremely high risks,” the ministry said, according to Reuters.
The report also said China wouldn’t be able to focus its entire military on Taiwan since it would have to be prepared for foreign intervention from the direction of US and Japanese military bases. China would also have to maintain its military presence at its disputed border with India.
Some analysts estimate China would need to send one million troops across the Taiwan Strait on the first day of the invasion for it to be effective, compared to the 156,000 Allied troops that stormed Normandy.
Besides the massive military cost, China has other reasons to avoid trying to take Taiwan by force. Most notably is the robust trade relationship Beijing and Taipei enjoy. In 2019, cross-Strait trade totaled $149.2 billion, and travelers from China made 2.68 million visits to Taiwan.