Israel likes to attack Syria, and while officials will mostly claim it’s about Iran, such strikes continue with alarming regularity, the only pause being when Israel is unsure if Russia is still comfortable with them.
This summer Russia suggested they wanted to slow down Israel’s attacks, but today Israel’s Housing Minister reported that they’ve come to an understanding whereby Putin will keep a deconfliction mechanism in place, and allow Israel to strike Syria with no response.
Details are not offered, as Israel tries to spin this as them getting everything they wanted at no cost. Russia has long had conditions on Israel’s attacks, however, and its unlikely that those aren’t still in place.
In particular, Russia has long warned Israel to keep its warplanes away from Russian bases, and that’s likely still part of the understanding. Russia has also been bolstering Syrian air defenses, a process which may be ongoing.
With a public imprimatur, Israel will probably increase strikes once again, though as in the past this is likely to mostly involve targeting Shi’ite militias.
Russia cannot say no, except if it came to assassinating the Syrian President–probably the only reason he is still alive. They likely have plans ready and have coordinates every time the Syrian President makes a phone call or travels to Russia. If they have the coordinates, then so does the US. Both are not bound to international law and don’t recognize the overwhelming Syrian people support for their President. Russia knows that if they do it, then Putin or Xi maybe next. It’s hard to accept that the world is controlled by the likes of Ramsay from the Game of Thrones. This disturbing reality is easy to see if it weren’t for the constant propaganda from the MSM.
Russia does not want to say anything, Israel is hoping for reaction. Under Biden, Syrian adventurism is back on. Russia is playing limp squid — good luck getting some reaction. Until it is time, and outcome secured. Israel is well out of its league in playing its weak cards.
israel just screwed themselves over majorly, just the optics alone are enough to get the paranoid MIC frenzied…
https://www.timesofisrael.com/bennett-extends-russia-trip-over-shabbat-after-warm-putin-talks-run-long/
Exactly so,
These illegal attacks are a sure sign of desperation on Tel Aviv’s part. High Risk – Low Gain behavior is what people do when they are running scared.
Israeli propaganda has always been brazen and it always aims to portray its capabilities as more fearful than they are. Take Iron Dome. It did not withstand few fireworks-grade rockets. But one would say — sure, it has never been designed to repel such low-tech threats.
But there was never an opportunity to test it against real threats, like cruise missiles. Israel is betting that no such threat would materialize, as US is its ultimate defender. This is American true vulnerability — predictability. US must defend Israel before any other priority interest.
Russia would never cut a deal of this kind. In their dreams. The objective is to provoke Russia into a rash move — verbal or otherwise.
Good luck with that.
There are other priority problems in Syria. One just recently solved — a pocket of militants that were under contract with Russia, found itself split between Damascus loyalists and those that eyed a more lucrative pay opportunity across the Golan border. Thwarted Israeli venture had to be swallowed.
US has basically outsourced some of its Syria policy. Periodic bombing, something US cannot do without international outcry.
The remaining problems in Syria are Idlib, US rejuvenated support for Kurds in Northwest, US presence at Al-Tanf close to Jordanian-Iraqi border. US footprint on Syrian territory is actually small. Russia has thwarted cowboy style “patrols”, attempts to demonstrate effective control outside its base. Excuses were long gone ISIS — but now Russia overflies area with helicopters to insure no ISIS presence. US stopped patrols.
Idlib might be the next big task. Or it might be stopping US from having free hand in the Iraqi-Syrian-Turkish birder area where oil fields serve as an excuse to keep Kurdish fake SDF alive for further trouble making in Hassakah area.
Either way, Russia and Turkey cut a deal on how to proceed against HTS and US umbrella cover for HTS and more dangerous YPG.
Israel will just have to wait its turn. US snd Israel clearly have time on their hands and plenty of human resources and money to play cat and mouse in Syrian countryside.
Israel wants attention, and will get it. In due course.
A major problem with Idlib is what to do with all the non-Syrian jihadists (and their families) that are holed up there? Turkey doesn’t want them and neither do the countries they came from.
A political solution is badly needed.
The illegal and immoral attacks reveal codes, tactics, and much more. The IAF is throwing away all its technical advantages by these expensive pin prick raids. They are being increasingly thwarted. It’s as if a poker player shows his cards to the other players.
At some point Israel will be paying reparations for these damages plus those Israeli’s responsible will be held accountable for war crimes. war crimes have no statute of limitations
Reparations that are routed through the US Treasury? Less than nil, if that’s possible. The destruction and negative outcomes will continue until Syria becomes more desert-like than the status quo.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/country-just-executed-24-people-igniting-deadly-wildfires
By that time Washington will be bankrupt. Biden=Andropov
It is tantamount to a bully beating a person being held by other thugs.
Iran out of Syria and Lebanon, then Israel will have no interest in Syria.
Why would Putin, or anyone, allow Israel to attack Syria with impunity?
How can Putin stop israel from attacking Syria? Russia is too economically fragile to fight israel & it’s cuckold protector – the u.s.
So the narrative goes. Russia has no intention to get sidetracked. Russia economically fragile? With its energy and grain exports aline, Russia has managed to stay out of debt and accumulate reserves in currencies and gold amounting to well over half a trillion, And its non-primary industries’ exports are gaining year on year. All that while keeping up and exceeding in defense. Add to that economic relationship with China means that Russia has no worries when it comes to consumer goods choices.
But Russia has priorities, and taking on Israel is not one of them.
At present, sorting out Afghanistan is number one Eurasian and Middle East priority. The joint statement at the end of Moscow meeting is indicative of how Biden lost the plot.
We follow prescriptive, formulaic set of color-by-number foreign policy rules. It is maddening to see so much stupidity — but there is a reason for our political madness. Policies, simplistic black-and-white once set -/ cannot be altered without huge political price to pay at home. So, we lumber on. What is happening now in the region following US withdrawal from Afghanistan — is a textbook case of new world order.
Principles set there can be applied to Syria.
What is needed in Syria’s case is the regional consensus. Turkey is playing an essential role, being member of SCO since 2013. However , since Saudi Arabia and Egypt joined this past summer, the regional coordination will advance gradual removal of US in Iraq/Syria region.
Israel knows it — thus frantic search for relevancy.
US needs nothing short of vision of global policy. But the internal l
polarization among elites does not allow it. Blaming is the name of the game — preventing consensus needed for a substantial reform.
I think you are right. But sure wish one of those Israeli jets would be shot down, by some terrible mistake of course. Oh soooo sorry kind of thing. Just once. Russia knows that half of Israelis are of Russian origin and Russian is spoken in the streets of Tel Aviv, same as English and Hebrew. So they keep cool and leave America’s hysterical Zionist pawns alone.
Correction, as of October 2021, the Turkish government has not applied for SCO membership,
It’s been a “strange war.”
Russia complained that Israel was cheating on the agreed rules for deconfliction. It was.
This compromise sounds like Israel once again promising to do what it promised to do, to stop cheating.
It’s in their DNA. Is that antisemetic of just the inevitable precipitant as they seek to put more & more Israeli coreligionists on other people’s land. Just the Israeli version of the American push Westward and the accompanying genocide of the natives. Their rational seems to be “We were abused, and now we are going to abuse you
So now some people have “bad” DNA.but of course you are a fair person.
Israel’s Housing Minister? LOL!!
The only good thing about Israel bombing Syria in their quest for “Greater Israel” is that they are putting their children at risk instead of, again, using our children. They are still using what they steal from us to pay for it, though.