Russian warplanes attacked a rebel military base near Afrin, in northern Syria. The base was held by rebels loyal to the Turkish military. Seven rebels were killed, 13 others were wounded. Reports said the toll is expected to rise, as bodies are still being recovered.
Such strikes are unusual, and this is believed to be a matter of timing. Important talks on northern Syria will be held between Turkey, Russia, and Iran, this week.
Earlier last week, Turkey sent a number of troops across the border into Syria, which was seen as a “message” to Russia and Iran ahead of the talks. Russia’s strikes are likely similarly an attempt to frame the matter ahead of the talks.
The nations had a ceasefire in northern Syria, meant to hold out Idlib as a deconfliction zone between Syria’s military and remnant rebels. The process fell apart, however, when al-Qaeda seized a bunch of territory from rival rebels, then lost it in fights with the government, leaving the government in control of some valuable areas and Turkey’s rebels with less and less to work with.
Turkey likely hopes that they can restore the promise of stability by recovering some lost territory, and sending troops threatening to take it outright. The Russian strikes, then, would be an indication they’re not going to be coerced on the matter.
What puzzles me in most about reporting on regional goings-on in places like Syria or Afghanistan is the general tone. I can sum it up as a belief that those non-Western folks are like native American tribes fighting and bickering among themselves, not noticing the actual danger.
What makes anyone think that these three countries — from the beginning defining their mission as guarantors of peace in Syria — are suspicious of each other, and “sending messages” to each other by bombing.
What do we think, they meet in Russia-China managed SOC forums picking their noses? Iran is now a ninth member with full voting rights. Turkey, like Egypt and Saudi Arabia is a member on partner level, participating and voting in areas of their own signed cooperation chapters with SCO.
The bombed group is likely one that accepted latest HTS charm offensive. HTS news is — trying to bribe, entice or coerce tribal leaders or militant groups to accept HTS leadership.
HTS must have received some real money to plunge into this operation. Afrin was their goal. But in Afrin they are more likely to find Kurds, not Syrians. Real Syrians are loyal to Turks in Afrin as they have tasted life under Kurdish YPG. No need to go to detail, but it was not pleasant.
HTS is designated terrorist organization in Turkey. Problem with HTS — it is a foreign, that is Western funded entity. What US and UK want is the recognition of Idlib as a special self-governing region, to participate in Constitutional assembly. Without a deal on Idlib, or without some resolution on HTS — US is not likely to exit Syria. Even then, US and Israel are determined to keep the Iraqi-Syrian border destabilized to prevent peace and commerce.
It will be interesting to see what kind of decisions will be made at this meeting.
Bombed group is almost certainly one accepting HTS money to join.
Just as US recently bombed a group thar defected from HTS. What was the story offered? The bombed group is supposedly Al-Qaeda affiliate, and HTS is fighting against them. Full on lie, and the portrayal of terrorist group, former Nusra Friont, as being helpful to US fighting Al-Qaeda. As the group targeted by US is almost certainly pro-Turkish, Russia action must be a payback,
A new game plan is needed to resolve Idlib. Meeting may be related.
A demonstration not only of superior force, but superior intel?
There was possibly a meeting of high level DAESH going down. Wonder if they had time to get past donuts and coffee.
The Russians, unlike the U.S., do not have the resources to bomb indiscriminately and have to make every shot count.
Russians do not bomb indiscriminately because they do not bomb indiscriminately. They have good intelligence on the ground.
This is most likely in response to US hitting a group that defected from HTS. This is hitting a group that has very likely switched allegiance for HTS (ours and Brits taxpayers) money.
Mmmm. Russians have their share of hawks and warmongers. They are just somehow better managed.
The main reason Russia would not bomb indiscriminately would be the need to keep hearts and minds alive and on their side, not splattered.
Russia, does not make their own terrorists problem.