The latest flare-up in fighting in southern Syria’s Daraa al-Balad looks like it may be resolved, as Russia has stepped in to broker another truce, and the rebels are starting to leave the area as part of the deal.
This deal follows up a deal made last month which was meant simply to disarm the rebels and let them stay there. Now, buses have been sent in to collect the rebels, mostly Free Syrian Army, and transfer them to the Idlib Province.
If fulfilled, this would resolve the siege in Daraa al-Balad, though it adds yet more rebels to the part of Idlib under the control of al-Qaeda-linked militants, which is one of the last major rebel territories in Syria.
Deals which see the rebels compacted into Idlib have been common in recent years, but leave open the question of how Syria is going to resolve the dense number of rebel fighters of varying factions clustered together in one area.
Well known patterns. Israel has even transported wounded militants to Israel across Golan Heights. It was then. What caused new flare up?
Judging from the resolution — the militants were not locals. Free Syria Army never existed, just a brand name for hundreds of unconnected groups, often militants brought in through various “vetting” programs by foreign intelligence.
Russia’s reconciliation program used to work with Syrian Government and involved amnesty and assistance. This worked with local communities where militants were often self-defense groups crested in chaos, or their funding dried up. They just wanted to get back to civilian life. Many even kept weapons, and became local security.
However, at this time, there are no more free lance militant groups outside of Idlib or part of US supported SDF.
This is why offer to stay was not acceptable — meaning militants have no local roots.
In Idlib , there is a continuous realignment and infighting. Over time territory was lost. Some taken by Syrian Army, others seek to avoid prosecution and go into Turkish Army, with hope for citizenship. Turkey needs Arabic speakers for assignment in Syria, Libya, Iraq and Qatar.
In Idlib, HTS is power with money. UN has been funneling money. It is only after HTS loses purse strings by controlling UN aid, that Idlib militants will have to decide what to do.
But now they cannot do what they blackmailed Turkey with — flood of refugees. Turkey has isolated Idlib.
Russian momentum in ending the Syrian war has been slowed, but not stopped.
Leaving Afghanistan for good frees up U.S. resources across the remaining Forever Wars fronts, that have not been going well.
A ‘rebel’ breakout could probably have used the resources sent into Afghanistan.
The Syrians and Russia see this as a winning strategy. It’s a versin of Mark Twain’s “Put all your eggs in one basket – and watch that basket!” In this case of course, it’s ‘rotten eggs’. One benefit is that the bad eggs in Idlib tend to fight each other about as much as they do the Syrian Government. Another is that the concentration makes it easier to target them.
Russia Keeps Raining Hell On Idlib
In fact, if it wasn’t for the constant meddlng by NATO members like Turkey, the US of A, and the UK, the Syrian horror would have been ended long ago.