It wasn’t so long ago that the US was reportedly close to rejoining the Iran nuclear deal, and diplomats were saying many of the terms had been worked out. Now, the US is growing pessimistic, suggesting that the return may be politically impossible.
Biden Administration spin is heavily on the incoming Iranian government, and predictions that they’ll be hard to deal with. The real issue, however, is very much on the American side, and restoring US trustworthiness in the deal after the Trump era.
The real issue is that the US never implemented its sanctions relief requirements under the deal, then unilaterally withdrew from the deal, then continued to undermine its implementation for the rest of the P5+1 for years.
Thus, it’s considered desirable to get the US back into the deal, but to quote Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “they once violated the nuclear deal at no cost by exiting it. Now they explicitly say that they cannot give guarantees it would not happen again.”
That’s the main stumbling block: Iran wants specific assurances that if the US returns to the deal, they promise not to just unilaterally leave it again. US negotiators say that would be politically impossible for them, since anti-Iran Congressmen will want the US to retain the option to just bolt from the deal at the next possible convenience.
Khamenei sees this as the US acting “cowardly and maliciously,” and making the deal’s restoration a lot harder than it needs to be.
Indeed, it’s not hard to see the US gearing up talks to fail, and trying to spin everything to be Iran’s fault. They’re already blaming a new government that isn’t in power yet, and have been pushing suddenly to make conventional missiles an issue, even though the effort had been to keep things focused on the nuclear issue.
The US never intended to rdeturn to the deal, their strings are being controlled by Israel.
Same as the sham posturing/negotiations(?) for a Two State Solution for Israel, which we knew was never the intent, while the settlers continued to gobble up what was to be the Palestinian State.
The Two State Solution has been dead since 1948.
They all had a 4 year shock-n-outrage fit over Trump’s lies, but seem never to tire of these folk. One would think the principals themselves might get weary of the noble lies, as even W did with his parody of WMD at the Press Club Roast.
“That’s the main stumbling block: Iran wants specific assurances that if the US returns to the deal, they promise not to just unilaterally leave it again.”
Bullsh*t. I’m sure Iran would still be willing to come back into compliance if the US removed all sanctions. Iran knows how our system works and there is no way, short of a treaty, that there can be a guarantee that the next administration will honor the deal. The real problem is that the US wants more than the original deal and is trying to shift the blame to Iran.
The real deal is the NPT that Iran signed and ratified.
“Congressmen will want the US to retain the option to just bolt from the deal at the next possible convenience.”_____ That’s Not a Deal, rather a Computer Video Game…?!
Still negotiating in the media I see.
But things have changed. Significantly. Trump was a necessity to US foreign policy. It laid naked the interests that drive relentlessly US foreign policy. And that realigned regional interests in an irreversible manner, it is over. US will nor return to the deal as it has no opportunity to use the deal to influence Iran.
Iran and Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Sudan and Qatar — all have realigned their international compass towards Russia-China’s led SCO. Asia, Middle East, Egypt and Sudan have made clear signals. This year’s top SCO decision makers have accepted Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Sudan will be hosting Russian naval base, including nuclear submarines, and have access for its military by all airports and ports.
Other then UAE, that has become almost entirely controlled by US-Israel interests, the region has made a soft move towards Eurasian integration.
What is left for US to get out of Iran? What will Iran get out of submitting to US-Israeli demands?
It is a purely a science fiction to assume that Iran could be beneficiary should it accept US terms. It is a huge question — is Iran really disadvantaged by US sanctions? I believe, the problem is — all the European states others that are vulnerable to US interests, are obeying US diktat. The disruption to supply chains is great. Iran’s lesson has been absorbed by others. What we see is a number of realignments of supply chains — and the new reliability index established. It is becoming obvious that food security is ranking higher than ever before in modern history, and reliability of suppliers is paramount. US, Canadian and Australian suppliers are especially vulnerable to the pressure from their governments.
Many unplanned consequences, like lack of chips for car industry — are result of supply chain breakdowns.
US is at present on an automatic pilot when t comes to Iran. Just keep status quo until a new Middle East policy is formulated, or can kicked down the road.
As I said before…. Waste of time and effort…. Something that US is very good at…!
Don’t be naive: the USA will always follow Orders by her little Brother ISRAEL !!
The US is addicted to sanctions. It never intended to rejoin the JCPOA. Iran needs to learn to live with the idiotic sanctions.