Recent reports have claimed China is massively expanding its nuclear arsenal based on what is said to be satellite images of missile silos. The latest report was published Tuesday by The New York Times and showed pictures that the Federation of American Scientists say are 110 nuclear missile silos being constructed in the desert of eastern Xinjiang.
Earlier in July, The Washington Post published satellite images that it claimed were over 100 missile silos being built near the northwestern Chinese city of Yumen. Some Chinese media outlets dismissed the report and said the picture was of windmills, and the image published at the top of the Post article has the words “Yumen Gansu Windfarm.” But since the report was published, the Chinese government has not confirmed or denied it.
According to The Associated Press, when asked about the latest report, China’s Foreign Ministry said it was not aware of the situation. This means either the silos are real, or China wants to give the US the impression that it is expanding its arsenal to give the appearance of a greater nuclear deterrence than what Beijing has.
US Strategic Command (STRATCOM), which oversees Washington’s nuclear arsenal, has jumped on the reports as proof that China is expanding its arsenal. “This is the second time in two months the public has discovered what we have been saying all along about the growing threat the world faces and the veil of secrecy that surrounds it,” the STRATCOM Twitter account said Wednesday.
Hyping up Beijing’s arsenal serves as a useful tool for the US military, which wants to justify its over $1 trillion nuclear modernization plan. But the reality is, even if China doubles its nuclear arsenal over the next 10 years, which is what the hawks are predicting, it would still be a fraction of what the US and Russia possess.
Current estimates put China’s arsenal between 300 and 350 warheads, while the US and Russia each have around 6,000. The difference explains why China has no interest in participating in trilateral arms control agreements with the US and Russia. Washington frequently calls for Beijing to be involved in arms control talks, and Russia has responded by saying France and the UK should participate too since their arsenals are similar in size to China’s.
The best thing the US and Russia could do to get other countries involved in arms control agreements is dismantle a good portion of their arsenals. But considering all the money behind the modernization plan and how willing Western media is to hype up these reports on China, that is unlikely to happen.
US and Russian officials held arms control talks in Geneva on Wednesday, a result of the recent summit between President Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin. No breakthroughs were made, but both sides agreed to hold further dialogue. The only major piece of nuclear arms control between the US and Russia is the New START Treaty, which Biden and Putin agreed to extend for another five years.
China has valuable points of view to offer on the topic of deterrence. There is a common attitude about deterrence that more power is better, but this disregards the distinction with aggression. Being so powerful that you are absolutely safe creates a ridiculous threat. Being able to destroy the opponent completely in their sleep with impunity poses a ridiculous threat. Being able to hurt your opponent ‘significantly’ once a conflict has escalated , but without denying the opponent the ability to hurt you, is deterrence. It is a strategy which combines strength and vulnerability. The US does not do deterrence, it thinks in terms of dominance and the deterrence with Russia was the result of failure to achieve dominance.
An interesting aspect of the many silos approach is that if you have one ICBM you have a certain offensive and a certain defensive threat about it. If you augment the one real ICBM with 9 dummies which shuttle between 10 silos you can increase robustness against a first strike but you still only threaten with one nuke. You can increase to 100 silos and still have one ICBM. This allows you to emphasize deterrence over agression. Well, depending on how you use them.
The fact that the ICBMs are liquid fueled (slow to launch) adds to that. They are not going to surprise you in your sleep. So I’m hoping China sticks to that approach as much as possible, but this will not stop the US from using its threat inflation/maximum security/dominance strategy to increase their nuclear weaponry capabilities.
The real problem is the entrenched US dominance logic.
We keep an elephant in the living room, wondering why the place is a mess while nagging the maid to do a more perfect job of dusting the splintered furniture.
Diplomatic solutions are not in a Neocon’s nature. The ‘noble lie’ emphatically is.
These are sham negotiations on the US part intended to create a record of punctilious adherence to the time-honored traditions of civilized relations between states resolving disputes without bloodshed, i.e., a spurious record. Like ‘W’ Bush pleading with Saddam to give up his WMD in full knowledge he had none; and, then proceeding to the UN for a Sec. Council vote (which he didn’t get, …but no matter) approving military intervention.
The Wolfowitz memo following on the collapse of the USSR announced the arrival of the Neocon parousia, the uni-polar world, the manifest destiny and promise of the foundational Western megalo-myth of The Chosen People, Washington (Tel Aviv?) the new Rome. Clearly maniacal, its cultists cling to the faith with a ferocious zealotry massively and mercilessly slaughtering any and all the least resistant, .. with an inevitable second from Wall St blood-money lust, and the multitude of lesser cormorants eager to get in on the pick’ns.
Gee. Multiple US POTUS over the last couple of decades declaring China as threatening the world. The USA clearly is seeking first strike capability.
China then seeks increases in nuclear weapons. Go figure.
I am surprised at how low the figure is for Israel’s nukes. I have seen higher numbers closer to the UK, France and China.
With Hair Trigger Alert on the US and Russian force, something China has not done, we are on the precipice of Accidental Armageddon every single moment. The increasing US pressure on China will push it to acquire more missiles and even go to Launch on Waring, aka Hair Trigger Alert.
Time to step BackFromTheBrink -see website of the same name.
Never ever mention the 200+ Nuclear “Toys” ISRAHELL is hiding !!