Recent reports that Russia is fed up with Israel’s ever-escalating airstrikes against Syria led to a lot of speculation on what they would do to curb the strikes. Russia has bolstered Syria’s air defenses, as reported, but so far Israeli media is reporting that Russia hasn’t done much else.
This is leading to speculation in the Israeli press that Russia wasn’t really serious about this, and was just trying to get progress with an empty warning. This has been a long-standing issue for Russia, however, and with Israel’s attacks in Syria growing, it seems unlikely that Russia is not taking the matter seriously.
The Israeli military was expecting more confrontation from Russia, and announced they would be firing stand-off missiles instead of traditional airstrikes to keep their distance from Syrian air defenses, while continuing to attack.
Russia’s best air defenses are very much designed to down the sort of US-made warplanes Israel uses, and as Syria gets more of the better systems, whether Russia directly intervenes or not Israeli warplanes will be less and less able to access Syrian airspace.
Of course, nobody suggests that Israel stop its aggression.
Obviously nobody of consequence. The US could do something but they’re an uninvited guest that refuses to leave themselves and are in the process of starving 60% of the Syrian population.
One of the big problems here is the “standoff missiles,” which implies e.g. Israeli planes launching from Lebanese airspace.
If the Russians are serious about addressing that problem, they’ll inform the Lebanese and Israeli regimes that
1) So long as Israeli planes can use Lebanese airspace with impunity, Russian air components will assume the same privilege with respect to Lebanese and Israeli airspace;
2) Russian forces will monitor those respective airspaces (using e.g. Beriev A-50s), with a fighter squadron on standby to investigate, and if necessary take down, any aircraft within those airspaces that represent a plausible threat to Syrian targets.
If Russia is serious about the problem, it can have Iran, pull back its terrorist armies from Syria and Lebanon,-the real cause for the mess in Syria.
Russia’s and Iran’s presence in Syria is entirely for defensive support against American financed Sunni terrorists and the Israeli fascists.
Correct.
Regurgitate some more.Don’t bother to think for yourself.Iranian troops train around a mock up of the Dome of the rock-Iran’s intent is clear.
Israeli troops kill Palestinians at the Dome of the Rock. A mission they religiously train for.
Those “terrorist armies” are proxies for the U.S. Don’t kid yourself. We have been wanting to bring down Syria since Ike commissioned the endeavor (the same time he commissioned the coup in Iran).
Our “terrorists” are good terrorists.
Or Russia could destroy Israeli Air Force bases with stand off missiles of its own launched from Syrian airspace.
It has every right to do so. Russia is an ally of Syria and is legally allowed to help defend Syria in a war from invading nations.
What I miss in the story is Hezbollah situated in Lebanon from where Israel conducts its attacks on Syria.
Hezbollah is not stupid. Little Lebanon has always bern a fiercely divided country. As a French colony it prospered as any other attractive colonial destinations do. Ending colonial statuses did not end colonial economy and behavior of people. Beirut was a playground of rich and corruption mainstreamed. Divided in thirds — Sunni, Christian and Shia — it was always easy to manipulate by foreign interest. Christians were eager to maintain European ties and image. Sunni interest aligned with Christians, and Shia, poorer population, were outliers.
Things changed. Christians saw Israeli destruction of Christian Palestinians, economy softened after hay day of Gulf wealthy living it up in Beirut. Israel had ambitions on Lebanese territory, Syria provided security for a while, which collapsed in staged Cedar Revolution when Western and Saudi favorite, Hariri took power. Economic hardships, Israel appetite for Lebanese space strengthened Shia movement Hezbollah.
And after 2006 Israeli full blown invasion (bombing Beirut, land invasion by tanks and ground forces) was repelled by Hezbollah, a realignment of voting began. Lower income Christians and Sunni were more aligned with Shia. Wealthy Sunni and Christians stuck with Western powers as their business were in danger. And as Syrian mess proved, West could not care for Christians as both Saudis and West supported Islamic militants and despite protestations, ISIS was Saudi-US project, just as HTS, former Nusra is British project.
Ever since Christian President, former general, was elected, partnership with Hezbollah worked.
But the old money in Lebanon was unhappy. And West made sure they suffer by choking off their banks and businesses. The last thing Hezbollah needs is to meddle. As Lebanese are mercilessly being sanctioned, threatened and bribed alternatively to give up their demands on East Mediterranean gas in favor of Israel — their beloved West is seen for what it is. No more illusions.
But the political situation is dangerous. Youth can always be encouraged thru relatively cheap means to protest against “the regime”. A few taped mouths, a few troublemakers. So far not catching on. But Hezbollah knows that if they get involved, the collective Western media volubility would crash upon them.
Best to let population decide what they see and feel, without chancing another civil war among sections. With so much turmoil — just let Israel do its best to show of its might, arrogance and perverse pleasure in abusing its neighbor.
Russia must remain steady and methodical. Lebanese armed forces are by far more interested in cooperating with Russia than France that is pushing hard to interject itself back into Lebanon.
Hezbollah better keep its powder dry for any provocation from the inside.
Russia, Turkey and Iran have jointly condemned Israel for bombing Syria, violating international law and sovereignty of Lebanon. With both Saudi Arabia and Egypt just joining Russia-China led SCO (with Turkey and Iran already members). — pressure in Israel will grow. Egypt’s entry in Gaza is by all accounts permanent. US would have to carefully balance what it owes to Israel, as opposed to keeping some influence in Turkey and Egypt.
It is getting tougher. Transactionally, both Turkey and Egypt can find common cause with US — but strategically they clearly made their decision.
It wouldn’t be too far out that we would see Israeli planes get shut down over Lebanese airspace…!
I would rather see them shut down on the ground.
In the 1970 War of Attrition, the USSR/Russia did not do amazingly well-Putin does not wan’t to waste his resources.
Access in question is to Lebanese air space, from which the strikes are done by air to surface missiles, together with bombing Lebanon.
So what will Russia do about Lebanese air space and help that would protect Hezbollah/Iranian interests? That is the real question, and the reason they have not moved more forcefully. If it was really Israeli aircraft over Syria of potential threat to Russian bases and forces, things would be entirely different.
I read the Russian anti-missile defense systems are working very well against Israeli attacks. Russia does not need to escalate conflict in the region other than providing defensive support.
Russia should destroy the Israeli bases where the attacks are coming from. A few hundred dead Israeli soldiers and Israel will get the message. But Putin is too weak.