Signs are that a deal to restore the JCPOA nuclear deal is getting closer, but a big potential sticking point is, as ever, the US. Since the US withdrew from the deal and ruined it in the first place, the big concern is the US pulling the same thing again after agreeing to return.
Iran wants a guarantee from the US that they will never again unilaterally withdraw from the JCPOA, with Iran’s ambassador saying such an assurance was vital to the Vienna talks.
Iran’s argument is a fair one, and more than just pointing out that the US already did it once. The concern is that other nations in the P5+1 won’t have confidence for Iranian investments, or to do business under eased sanctions, without a US guarantee of stability.
The problem is that the US says they can’t guarantee it, arguing that there is no legal mechanism whereby they could bind future presidents, or Congress, to the deal being reached. They added that making withdrawal contingent on the UN wouldn’t work, because Russia could veto it.
It’s possible there is some middle ground, where the US could guarantee not to go after European companies for doing business with Iran, though as with everything else, this doesn’t preclude a future US government taking matters off the rails and just starting a big fight to undermine the deal.
Here is a modest proposal – the US is supposed to have more than 8,000 tons of gold. Why not ship 250 tons of it to a neutral site like Switzerland as a “performance” bond? After 25 years of the US behaving itself, the gold would be returned to the US.
If some idiot like Tom Cotton or Ivanka becomes president and breaks the deal again before the time is up, the gold is shipped to Iran.
25 years wouldn’t be enough. The Trump progeny would be in its prime.
Iran knows it’s impossible, …less on account of the US than Israel, …the latter having all along guaranteed to aggressively annul any agreement. This is a rhetorical ploy to spotlight US impotence to its own population.
Then deposit some Russian nukes where they must be turned over by third parties to Iran in case of a US breach. That would concentrate the minds in Israel.
The USSR/Russia has been very reluctant to provide nuclear weapons to other countries-for all their belligerence, they have more sense than the so called “antiwar” crew
True, China has been much more willing. That would work too.
Give examples. China has spread nuclear technology,but has not spread nuclear weapons-they want a stable north Korea, not a north Korea engaged in a nuclear exchange.
Half true. Only a formal treaty can bind Congress, and even that often is ignored, ask Native Americans among many others.
However, the US could agree to a Security Council Resolution with teeth, that if the US again violates the Deal, it will be subject to specified sanctions, and the rest of the world with both honor the deal and sanction the US for not doing so.
Good luck getting the rest of the world to honor its pledge, if the US threatens to retaliate against those who keep their word.
If this is true, it’s disappointing … it shows that Iran still has not learned the lesson of relying on “agreements” with big powers, especially western powers. They should have learned by now that such agreements and $4 will get you a cup of coffee in San Francisco.
Iran should realize that any agreement is temporary and only valid as long as politically useful for the party in charge. This agreement in question may be in place for the next three years … that’s it. If that’s useful, go for it; if not, do something else.
Unfortunately, history shows “US Guarantees” aren’t to be trusted, especially given foreign and lobbyists influence. Iran would be a fool not to be working on a nuclear warhead
typical antiwar “pacifist.
It’s called a determent and it prevents war. You know, just like you claim Israel’s nukes do.
Iran is well within its bounds to not trust the US- as are, for that matter, other nations we try to do business with. If we’re fine with walking away from the biggest nuclear agreement in decades, what’s to stop us from just walking away from billion-dollar purchases we just decide not to pay for?