On Tuesday, the US ambassador for disarmament on Tuesday accused China of “resisting” nuclear arms control talks.
“Despite the PRC’s [People’s Republic of China] dramatic build-up of its nuclear arsenal, unfortunately it continues to resist discussing nuclear risk reduction bilaterally with the United States,” Ambassador Robert Wood told a UN conference.
Current estimates put China’s nuclear arsenal at about 320 warheads, which is nowhere near the almost 6,000 the US possesses. Even if Beijing doubles or triples its stockpile within the next 10 years, as China hawks are predicting, it would still be a fraction of what the US has.
Despite the numbers, the US for years now has been calling for China to participate in arms control agreements like Russia does. “To date, Beijing has not been willing to engage meaningfully or establish expert discussions similar to those we have with Russia. We sincerely hope that will change,” Wood said.
China’s envoy who attended the conference later rebuked Wood’s comments and said that Beijing was ready for dialogue on nuclear weapons. “We stand ready to carry out positive dialogue and exchange with all parties to jointly explore effective measures to reduce nuclear risk and to contribute to global strategic security,” said Ji Zhaoyu.
If the US were serious about negotiating an arms control treaty with Beijing, it would have to make a sincere effort to dismantle some of its arsenal, as would Russia. In February, the US and Russia agreed to extend New START, the last piece of nuclear arms control between the two powers.
China is probably working extra hard to get more nukes since it found itself in line for the next US military attack. They can read NYT and WAPO.
Numbers do not matter. Targets do.
So, is the US willing to cut to the level of China? No. Not the slightest.
China does not want to build up to American levels. It never has.
So there is nothing to talk about.
This is not about nuclear weapons at all, not really.
The US wants to limit the shorter range ballistic missiles that China has prepared against Taiwan.
China can totally wreck Taiwan’ air and sea defenses and close its ports and international airports with a single big barrage, and there is no good answer except to get them to give it up. No, they won’t. Why would they?
Well, we had a treaty with Russia that did just that. The Trump administration scuttled that.
What makes us think that the Biden administration will be any different?
That treaty did not include China. Demands to include the Chinese missiles aimed at Taiwan was a major reason expressed for dumping the treaty that at least limited Russian missiles.
When US cut down its nukes from 6000 to 320, then China would talk…. and that is Never….!
China has about the same amount of warheads as Israel.
I do not think China is ramping up nuclear arsenal in a major way. Russia and China declared ages ago that they will not duplicate efforts in military technology and science. There are already so many joint university programs, civilian aircraft development, nuclear power plants development, and an unknown amount or type of coproduction of military technology.
All Russian and Chinese military technologies may have different names, but it may be essentially be same.
It has been known for a while that Chinese factory floors are cranking up components and that standard containers are use for rail, ships or trucks to deliver them for partial ir full assembly. We literally cannot tell the extent of coproduction.
Will that much being known — it is highly conceivable that Russian massive nuclear stash is sufficient for Chinese nuclear umbrella. Especially as Russia has to protect its territory all the way up to Pacific coast. China is focusing on different deterrent.
US just cannot ignore China and its potential for intercontinental delivery. But, US commitments to Japan, South Korea and Australia — are becoming increasingly problematic even at the current low Chinese warhead levels.
The control of nuclear weapons should be priority, But it comes hand in hand with SECURITY. China and Russia have built mutual security. Such security does not exist between Russia and China on one side , and US on the other. Since this is the case, US allies — Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, must ascertain the real security commitment by US. This must comprise of support to its economy in the case of full break with Chinese economy, as well as missile defense capability to defend their territories.
Or will the role of these countries be the security buffer between China and US. How secure does the buffer feel — should inform US ambitions in Asia Pacific.
So why isn`t the US calling for Isreal to include their nukes you know the ones they claim they don`t have.