On May 16 Azerbaijan kicked off large-scale war games after its troops encroached on Armenian territory almost a week ago. This is the third series of Azerbaijani war games since last August, the first having preceded the Azerbaijani-Turkish attack on Nagorno-Karabakh by only a month and a half.
The current drills, according to the nation’s Defense Ministry, consist of 15,000 troops, as many as 300 tanks and other armored vehicles, up to 400 artillery pieces, multiple rocket launching systems, mortars, anti-tank weapons and fifty military aircraft and drones.
Only two months ago Azerbaijan conducted another series of war games with 10,000 troops, 100 tanks and other armored vehicles, rocket and artillery installations, multiple rocket systems, mortars and thirty military aircraft and drones.
The current ones, then, are the most extensive since Azerbaijan attacked Nagorno-Karabakh last September in what developed into a lopsided 44-day war. Preceding the war Azerbaijan and Turkey – the two nations refer to themselves as “one nation, two states” – held massive war games throughout Azerbaijan, on both sides of Armenia (Nakhchivan and the main body of Azerbaijan), with the participation of an estimated 11,000 Turkish troops. The exercise began on July 29 and ended on August 10. Seven weeks later Nagorno-Karabakh was invaded.
Given the intrusion of Azerbaijani troops this month into Armenia itself, where they remain, there is every reason to fear a new act of aggression by Baku and its Turkish sponsor, NATO’s second most powerful member.
If tone reveals intent, the title of an article on the war games in the Azerbaijani press on May 17 should clarify the nation’s objectives in holding them. Trend had this headline: Azerbaijani army exercises to be message to revanchist forces in Armenia: expert. It wasn’t Armenia which launched a war last autumn to reclaim land ostensibly seized by others thirty years earlier; not that nation which sought to avenge itself by military means. Avenge = revenge = revanche.
The military expert cited, Adalat Verdiyev, left little doubt as to Azerbaijani motives and goals in saying:
“The exercises are one of the important factors for increasing the combat readiness of the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan. The exercises are aimed at making use of the combat experience gained in the recent war to achieve a higher level in the implementation of coordinated operations in the conditions of joint activities of missile-artillery, ground forces and special forces. “
As the same time troops in Azerbaijan’s western enclave of Nakhchivan are holding exercises. The AZERTAC news agency said of the drills: “During the exercises, formations and units involved in practical activities have been put on alert and withdrawn to the destination areas according to combat training tasks.”
The ongoing war games occur six days after Azerbaijani troops illegally entered the Syunik province in southern Armenia and have refused to depart. An Armenian Iranian expert, Vardan Voskanyan, recently warned that the current exercises are preparations for war. Stating the obvious, he added:
“Have those who talk about making peace with the enemy asked themselves whether Baku wants that peace? In fact, the enemy is not preparing for peace, but for war, otherwise there would be no need to hold regular military exercises of such intensity.”
Armenian Acting Defense Minister Vagharshak Harutyunyan spoke to Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization Stanislav Zas on the phone on May 17 for the second time and warned of dire consequences if Azerbaijan’s aggressive moves were not halted.
Armenia’s Acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan held an emergency meeting of the Security Council on May 16, reporting that tensions were intensifying near part of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.
It’s also confirmed that Acting Foreign Minister Ara Aivazian will participate in a foreign ministers session of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) on May 19. On May 13 Aivazian and the acting defense minister both spoke with the CSTO as well, with the second warning that Azerbaijan’s aggressive actions not only pose a threat to Armenia but also present “a serious threat to regional security and stability.”
As was to be expected, although the CSTO charter, specifically its Article 2*, obligates members to provide assistance to a fellow member under attack, neither Russia nor the other members (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) have expressed any solidarity with Armenia. Just as Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova dismissed the Azerbaijani war games in March with “Azerbaijani military exercises do not pose risks to stability and security in the region,” so now Russian officials seem blissfully unconcerned about the fate of their nation’s CSTO partner, with Zakharova’s boss Sergey Lavrov recently saying, “There is no reason to exaggerate emotions over the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.”
And just as last year’s Azerbaijani-Turkish onslaught against Nagorno-Karabakh engendered no real opposition from CSTO members, and no real outcry anywhere in the world, so this time it’s to be feared that Azerbaijani aggression will be tolerated, encouraging yet further attacks not on Nagorno-Karabakh alone but potentially against other disputed territories in former Soviet states.
*The Member States shall consult with each other on all important issues of the international security affecting their interests, and coordinate positions on these issues.
Rick Rozoff is a contributing editor at Antiwar.com. He has been involved in anti-war and anti-interventionist work in various capacities for forty years. He lives in Chicago, Illinois. He is the manager of Stop NATO. This originally appeared at Anti-Bellum.
This is straight up Armenian propaganda.
I do sympathize with Armenian people, but they did bring it upon themselves. What exactly did they expect from the journalist Pashinyan, who in a classical, anti-Russian color revolution took power in 2018? Was not HE the one who humiliated CSTO by politically motivated.denigration of an Armenian general who was the head of CSTO at the time?
It is Armenia who started the war in July 2020 by attack that resulted in the death of two Azeri high level military commanders. After that, Azerbaijan mobilized for war.
For the naive — do you think Azerbaijan move was not approved by Russia? And why?
On one hand Russia had Armenia that was allowing US special forces from Georgia throughout Armenian and occupied Azeri territories all the way up to Iranian border. Nice.
In Azerbaijan, US was exploiting the feelings of frustration with thirty plus years of Armenia occupying 20% of Azeri territory and expelling over 600,000 people. Nagorno-Karabakh was only small chunk of it.
Israel made major inroads into Azeri military circles by selling military equipment that neither Russia nor Turkey were selling.
Russia, Iran and Turkey watched the worsening situation in both countries with alarm.
Armenia continued cynically to game its CSTO membership to troll Russia, demanding protection while making all sorts of moves to damage Russian position in the country.
List of those available should anyone care.
As I said, without Russian consensus, no war would have happened, but Russia really had to react on worsening situation.
US sometimes believes in its own propaganda. It was assumed that Russia was going to be forced to help Armenia, and US and Israel help Azerbaijan. And Turkey being junior player in Azerbaijan. All assumptions were wrong.
Turkey came in as a bullhorn and the arms supplier to kick-start the war.
Israeli suppliers has been sidelined, as Turkey not only provided weapons but was very public face of supporting Azerbaijan. Turkey and Israel are regional rivals, we could say enemies.
In the war, Armenia claimed — falsely every time — that Azerbaijan attacked Armenia proper. This is to frustrate Armenian population depicting Russia as abrogating CSTO obligations.
But the end of war, and peace signed — resulted in Russia protecting Nagorno-Karabakh and corridor linking it to Armenia. As well as the corridor to Nakhchivan.
Russian military is in Azerbaijan protecting Armenian enclave and corridor, and is in Armenia, protecting Nakhchivan corridor. Turkey and Russia have joint military base in Azerbaijan.
Naturally, US and France are displeased that they both became irrelevant in solving this frozen conflict. And having recovered from the shock — are scheming something to get Armenia useful to their ends. Cleary, now have only Armenian territory to play with.
But good enough. Just claim that Azeris made incursion into Armenia and — voila!
Call in CSTO.
Sure.
And if Armenia is angling to get out of CSTO, and become US garrison like Georgia, there is nothing Russia can do, except withdraw economic support. Bur Russia would still protect Nagorno-Karabakh, and — depending in the situation, the corridor. It may be quid pro quo. NK corridor for Nakhchivan corridor.
But it is likely that US would PREFER cutting off Nakhchivan corridor, and blocking traffic for Turkey towards Azerbaijan and Central Asia.
Should Armenia be that stupid and weak, and reject lucrative deals to build rail within corridor — and opts for US promises — it may provoke another war.
The question is — why would CSTO help if Armenia VIOLATES the peace it signed and the freedom of transit across its territory for isolated Nakhchivan?
I would imagine not. Armenia is now under pressure. Its US sponsored color revolutionaries are still in charge. Internal battles are not over. It may be logical for them to do what master says.
Meaning that Azerbaijan will not be left asleep while Armenia tries on a new strategy.
The exercises are meant to say the following. If Armenia tries to violate agreement on Nakhchivan, all bets are off. Armenia may lose territory between corridor and Iranian border. Basically — no more border with Iran.
Armenia may chose peace, keep Nagorno-Karabakh in protected status, and get economic benefits from Nakhchivan corridor.
It it wants war by blocking Russia from securing corridor, it will get war. Doubt US will want war with Turkey and support Armenia. Time for Yerevan to think, really think.
Choices are — work with your neighbors or get US in, and enter big power games.
Soon we will know their leaders’ choice.
But do spare us from the Armenian victimhood story here. Its leaders led the country into disaster. But they are not done yet.
The region — Azerbaijan, Turkey, Russia and Iran know exactly what they are dealing with.