The schism between Sunni and Shi’ite Muslims has caused tensions for centuries, and has recently been seen as a source of tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iraq, which borders both nations and has populations of both types, has a group of Shi’ite militias that are formally aligned with Iran, and were instrumental in fighting against ISIS.
Iraq, which worries about hosting potential fights, has tried to bring the Saudis and Iranians together to talk, which is going a lot better than anyone expected. That’s good news for everyone, except maybe the militias, who were awash in funding and support because of the tensions.
Indications are that the militias are distancing themselves from Iran now, sort of a silent protest to the talks, and based on the belief that the Iranians will cut them loose the first chance they get if they start getting real diplomatic progress.
That might be a fair assessment, as for months Iran has been grousing to Iraq about the militias not being very well under control. Orders to stop hitting US targets in anticipation of new talks there were ignored by several militias, with Iran openly threatening to disavow some of the groups if they didn’t knock it off.
This is something that’s not so unusual, with an armed faction in the pay of a nation seeing the writing on the walls and trying to undermine diplomacy with some unilateral action of their own. This often makes it hard to reverse course on proxy conflicts.
If anything this is something the US and Iran have in common, as while Iran tries to keep militias from foiling things, the US is contending with Israeli delegations lobbying heavily against diplomacy, and sabotaging Iranian interests.
Iran probably isn’t going to cut loose all of the militias at once, even if their importance drops drastically in the case of a deal with the Saudis. If anything this is likely to be a loyalty test for those factions, where the Iranians find out who they can trust.
“Iraq, which worries about hosting potential fights, has tried to bring the Saudis and Iranians together to talk, which is going a lot better than anyone expected. That’s good news for everyone, except maybe the militias, who were awash in funding and support because of the tensions.”
And does anyone think that is good news for the US and Israel? Ask the Iranian general. Oh that’s right, we offed him.
Why so much romanticism in interpreting events in the Middle East. It is not that facts are not available — they are. Perhaps we are used to giving the region very little credit for intelligence and pragmatism.
And Shia Sunni rift was always used by European colonial powers, as by US in the era of Petreaus Iraqi Awakening and arming Sunnis against Shia. Nothing new there. British put together disparate Arabian tribes under House of Saud to challenge and weaken Ottoman empire, House of Saud snd a politician turned preacher, Al-Wahhab signed agreement on the powers of religion in new kingdom. Their first act was to destroy Shia cities and shrines in Iraq. Telling Ottomans and Baghdad that they are not safe.
The period ynder Ottomans did not give preferences to Sunni. We may give less importance to natives being stupid and pay more attention to manipulation.
Shia militias in Iraq are all paid by Iraqi army, and are incorporated into military. I would really like to know which Shia units are fully funded by Iran? The myth of Iran funding and controlling
Shia militia is a convenient one, as Israel is using it all the time to bomb Syria and particularly Syria-Iraq border across which US can control the flow of anything from Jordan to Iraq.
That is not to say that Shia militia is not vetting intelligence from Iran, or that it is not using Iran’s clout for politicians supporting Shia militias.
It makes all the sense now to talk about “distancing” from Iran. This is giving Saudis necessary defensibility — as US is watching with jaded eye the talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Not targeting US at present — also good idea.
Saudis need an iron-clad commitment from Iran on non-agressiom. Saudis CANNOT afford a war with Iran — period. They are TOO vulnerable. Saudis will very likely do much on economic front. . Saudis biggest customer is China. And China has a mega deal with Iran. Not too complicated to see the links. Same with Saudi-Qatar-Turkey-Iran connections.
Israel has no real connections in ME. Other then financially overextended UAE, and debtor nations of Cyprus and Greece. Biggest countries in the region are in political and economic diversification.
It’s the Iraqi militias that are distancing them
selves from Iran and not the other way around.
That has more to do with them being Iraqi and Arab than reduced funding… These aren’t the IS mercenaries after all .