Saying that they believe the intra-Afghan talks have stagnated, the US has proposed a radical change to the current state of affairs, whereby they would hold a grand conference and take control of the efforts.
Secretary of State Tony Blinken outlined the plan for an accelerated series of negotiations, aimed at a lasting ceasefire and settlement. This is expected to include forming an interim government and preparing for free elections to install a new government.
The Taliban is a bit wary, mostly on the US not having committed to finishing the pullout it committed to. The Ghani government is furious, because President Ghani has repeatedly ruled out giving the Taliban any power in an interim government and is now looking to portray the US as undermining Afghan democracy, such as it is.
This could indeed shake things up, and it’s likely necessary for the US to try to commit to getting peace back on track, as it was Biden’s early reticence, and excuse-making about backing out of the pullout, that stalled it in the first place.
Just get out of there. Please.
It’s a clever strategy, as drawing the Taliban into government would undermine their reputation and with America setting the agenda, it would defuse calls for US forces to withdraw. I don’t think the Taliban would fall for it though.
There is no substitute for victory and the Taliban fighters are about to achieve it, which is why Washington has been forced into regime change as a final option, other than losing.
The US has deemed it necessary to call for a UN meeting in Turkey because besides the US losing the war its arch-enemy Russia has been stepping up action to solve the Afghan mess that the US has created. There have been meetings in Moscow since at least 2019.
Thirty years after the last Soviet troops retreated from Afghanistan, Russia has reasserted itself as a player in the region, hosting talks between the Taliban and senior Afghan politicians aimed at speeding the exit of another superpower — this time the United States.
Zamir Kabulov, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy for Afghanistan, has been in Pakistan for talks with officials. Islamabad has been a key player with significant influence over the Taliban. Kabulov has not been complimentary about the US. The Russian state-owned Sputnik News Agency quoted Kabulov as saying, “The Taliban adhere to the agreement almost flawlessly — not a single American soldier has died since the agreement was signed — which cannot be said about the Americans.” The Russian envoy accused the U.S. military of “repeatedly” carrying out airstrikes against Taliban-held Afghan area positions “under various pretexts.”
…Russia involvement, again
from ToloNews, March 8:
Afghan Politicians React to US Sec. Blinken’s Letter
If Washington can’t talk or buy into a voluntary regime change agreement from their installed puppet Ghani, then he may have to be killed. He wouldn’t be the first.
https://www.indianpunchline.com/india-pakistan-on-the-road-to-peace/
Some random thoughts regarding a peace initiative. The Taliban controls roughly half the country. If Bill Clinton were president, he’d recommend the Yugoslavia solution or newly-created countries. There’s likely some reluctance to depart their perceived reputation as smugglers and highway robbers. Starting a new country could be daunting.
The Afghan government is a Washington shill and as corrupt as they come.
If both opposing Afghan factions were seeking a peaceful resolution, they would be better served to issue a joint statement calling for Washington’s complete troop withdrawal by May 1. To follow that declaration, schedule immediate talks with Russia, China, Iran, and Pakistan diplomats. I think India is quite compromised in its Western allegiances. It goes without saying the Americans must be banned from these discussions.
The process of creating economic, manufacturing, and political entities will most likely rely on the aforementioned nations.
The burden isn’t necessarily greater on either. The long-term strategic gains might very well lean toward the Taliban. If rule of law is respected, they’ll have control over military and civilian law enforcement. They might have ideological baggage toward others’ religious and personal freedoms they’ll be pressed to discard.
Generally speaking, the US & puppets control the cities and the Taliban controls the countryside, so a new sub-country is impossible. Russia has been talking to the Taliban and their sponsor Pakistan probably with one goal in mind: Taliban back in control in Kabul. If the Taliban were to be neutralized, then Pakistan would be too, and that wold allow India’s interests in that country to expand, which is Pakistan’s worst nightmare. . .In any case nobody trusts the US, why should they. . .Meanwhile the Taliban will embark on their Spring offensive, with Pakistan and Russia support, because everyone loves a winner (and the US never is).
One would hope the Taliban, Russia, and Iran might find a common denominator. That would be the US’ absence from negotiations and future regional engagement–whatever form that takes. These talks might include Syria and Iraq.
Turkey’s Tayyrip Erdogan need have no seat here. It should be self-evident.
This is to start another 4-8 years of chaos. To keep the country and the region paralyzed and unable to plan infrastructure, trade and connectivity. The government stays paralyzed due to its near complete dependence on US funding. The corruption is the official system.
Afghan clans themselves were fighting each other for years, accepting US incentives, or suffering pain for non-compliance. But at some point they overcame differences. And now after withdrawal is not going to be honored — there will be a change.
Proposed solution which amounts to US imposed solution, will not work, and will not be accepted. Or will sere as buying time.
Taliban and Government need a time to deploy plan B or C, or D. Hi
In Libya US and France lost control. Russia, Egypt and Turkey have the upper hand at present. The interim body appointed must prepare election, but members cannot run. And those that will run are going to be put forth by the two parliaments, and will get support by voters.
US is putting faith in UN to carve influence, but it is hard to see how it will work — unless magically some terrorists are syphoned in. But it does look like the parliaments backed by Turkey and Egypt, and both of them by Russia, may withstand the destabilizing pressures.
Is it possible that there is a lesson in here for Afghanistan. Another regional player — like Pakistan for example — should come in and back Taliban, while Government must be given clear guarantees by Russia and China. While Pakistan, which is currently closely allied with Turkey — would communicate to Taliban the process by which they agree on format for governing post-occupation. Just as secretly the two parliaments in Libya came to an understanding via intermediaries. It would be impossible for US troupes to remain should an agreement be reached,
The real danger is to the higher level of Government officials, as the pressure on them to renege on the agreement would be intolerable, unless they pull a surprise turnover of government to an agreed upon interim body set to organize elections like in Libya.
The parties involved would be neighbors that would anyway have to support economic development and security.
There is no other realistic end to occupation even if US efforts are implemented. It will only mean never ending manipulation of election cycles with continuing poverty and lack of development.
The only way alternative is a brokered agreement by other powers.
The question is — is Afghanistan really of such an importance to US? Same logic used to apply to Vietnam and we are militarily clinging to the Middle East for the same reason.
At the very core of the geopolitical dilemma today is global security — not British Empire style controls of trade, trade routes and vassal states.
Our following the example of British Empire feels and smells so wrong and unintelligent — it hurts. We can join the process of creating a new global security that is indivisible .
Or clamor for war, but nobody came. Or start something stupid and regret it.
Antiwar is nothing more than a Russo/Sino anti American anti Western democracy troll spreading disinformation, propaganda, outright lies, half truths to gain confidence in the reader, its main purpose is to gain influence for the Russians and Chinese, disrupt US foreign policy to make Americans doubt their democratic Government, they are the Fox in the Chicken coop disguised as the farmer.
Interesting how fast you went from seemingly merely ignorant to openly dishonest there.