Sixteen government troops were killed and dozens of Houthis were also slain in northern Yemen in the past 24 hours, continuing a solid week of fighting over the last government-controlled stronghold in Maarib Province, which is to say the last government holding in northern Yemen.
With fewer and fewer pieces of territory legitimately up for grabs in increasingly stalemated Yemen, the Houthis have centered in on Maarib, pouring in reinforcements. So far, it has not changed hands.
The Houthis did cut government supply lines into the area, however, and are emphasizing that it is “oil rich.” That term is relative, however, and the most oil-rich parts of the poorest nation in the Middle East are still not worth that much.
The “last” holding of the opposing side could be a big step toward instigating a peace process, as it makes it appear, six years into the war, that the Saudis have failed to conquer Houthi territory, and the two sides need to start negotiating a settlement.
Still in a muddle.
What does Saudi Arabia want? To restore the long ago dead mandate of Hadi to rule in Sana’a? And that is why they are focusing on Aden? Of course not. Saudis will not exit the war until they get control of the South, to get assurances that US will not through UAE control Al-Mandeb Straits.
Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Egypt — all want to keep the Straits open without ANY outside country controlling it.
What does UAE want? Seriously, where do they come in?
They became the best buddies of Southern Secessionists, and their many groups. And US is helping UAE with arms and thousands of US private armies. So, US and UAE are helping Southern Secessionists, and AGAINST Saudi self-proclaimed role of Yemen unifier!
This is the key to understanding. All US wants is control of a stretch of Yemeni coast in order to control the Straits.
It is of less importance what kind of country it becomes. Thus helpless UAE became proxy, as after the change in palace coup in June 2017 — Saudis were no longer willing to support US control of the Straits. Saudis then got a coalition — Sudan and Egypt to insure their interests in the control of Straits.
What do Houthis want? Independence and return to borders of
their former country — North Yemen. This one is clear, from the beginning.
What do Southern Secessionists want?
Independence and return to borders of their former country — South Yemen. With one caveat — it was NEVER really one country, but put together from former British protectorates, three sultanates. They have choices to make.
Either accept UAE overseers, which means US control. If they DO NOT LIKE THIS OPTION, they need to cut a deal with Saudis. First step already done — deal for Aden.
What is US antiterrorist action doing there? Using terrorism as a reason for undermining those groups that are opposing US/UAE control of the South.
What does US want? Military base in the South mirroring Djibouti on the African side.
Other then UAE — not geographically affected — all Red Sea countries do NOT want this solution.
The war will end the moment US gives up
ambition for controlling Arabian side of Straits. UAE would get out of the conflict, North and South go back to previous borders. Saudis, Sudan, Egypt get guarantees that no foreign country gets base in the North and South. And peace treaty to be signed by all
If US relents, UAE will be losers. With UAE and Bahrain being most exposed should US relent — they had to sign deal with Israel in order to get some protection from Saudi wrath.
This is the real, serious split within the Gulf — UAE and Saudi Arabia are going separate ways.
This is the main reason for Saudis to cut deal with Qatar, and understandings with Turkey.
It is a truly pat position. The question is — how much longer can US afford to hang around. Saudis have no intention to end conflict —, as they still pretend that they represent the legitimate last president of unified Yemen! And they will stop pretending only after US gives up pretension on Yemeni coast, particularly South.
Depending on US decision — Yemen war will end or not.
But a split of Gulf states is a permanent result. They cannot be united on Iran.
But is Iran really the goal — or the goal is the break up of Gulf, and have first the most vulnerable fall under full control — UAE and Bahrain.
UAE because it has no more oil, and depends on remaining Western and Asian financial hub.
Bahrain, because a Sunni ruling class is controlling 80% of Shia population, and are hosting Fifth Fleet.
And both are now having Israeli advisors, as sooner rather then later, conflict with Saudi interests is inevitable.
Saudi Arabia needs to f**k off with both hands. Nothing in that country belongs to them. They are terrorists and they deserve no say in the countries they cripple. If Saudis get a say in Yemen’s future than Iran should get a say in Riyadh. That’s about how much sense this makes. A peace deal may be necessary but we can’t afford to ignore the fact that it is unbelievably unfair.