One region that remains a flashpoint between the US and Russia is the Black Sea, an area where Washington and NATO are expected to increase their military presence this year. Adding to the tensions, Ukraine is moving forward with plans to build two new military bases in the region.
One base will be built on the Black Sea, and the other will be on the Sea of Azov, a waterway between Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced plans for the new bases at NATO headquarters in Brussels on Tuesday. Shmyhal said the UK was “helping financially” with the projects, and work is expected to start soon.
While Ukraine is not an official NATO member, Kyiv has warm ties with the alliance. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg reaffirmed the alliance’s support for Ukraine during Shmyhal’s visit and noted the increase in NATO activity in the Black Sea.
“Just some days ago, the US Navy destroyer USS Porter trained with Ukrainian ships in the Black Sea and Spanish aircraft are currently conducting NATO air policing in the region,” Stoltenberg said.
The USS Porter is one of three US warships that entered the Black Sea in January. The USS Donald Cook, another destroyer, and the oiler USNS Laramie have also been operating in the waters. On Tuesday, US European Command said the USS Donald Cook and USS Porter joined the Turkish Navy for exercises in the Black Sea.
According to Stars and Stripes, the two US warships departed the Black Sea on Wednesday after operating in the waters for 17 days, one of the longest US Navy deployments in the region in recent years.
Yes, they are. Turkey still did not relax for them the Montreaux Convention rules about the number, weight and the duration of presence for vessels of non-coastal states. Being member or a friend of NATO does not alter the rules.
But the obsession with Russia continues. US may get it — but Europe does not. Russia is hardly any more interested in what Europe says.
After 300 years of trying to become part of extended Europe, this is no longer its geopolitical destiny. Europe and US had adopted a teacher-student relationship towards Russia. Thus interfering in Russia’s domestic affairs, including judiciary, was to advance democracy. While Trump’s comment on wanting to get along with Russia is treasonous and Russia is undermining “our” democracy.
Lavrov said recently that EU apparently cannot talk to Russia respectfully — and may be better for Russia to stop talking to them for a while.
Russia is suggesting a pause. Europe is the one who needs a pause — until it sinks in that Russia is no longer European periphery— but Eurasian power. With most of its territory in Asia, it is clearly an Asian country as well. Russia has now Asian foreign policy orientation, trade and cultural ties.
So the best NATO can do is use Ukraine to threaten Russia by encouraging Ukraine to build a base in the Sea of Azov. Which would require getting Russian permission to sail through Kerch Straits, Russia’s territorial waters.
Much of this power game playing is a result of giddy thinking that still pervades Western geopolitic since the end of cold war, The bubble has not burst yet. But it will sooner than later.
Zelenski, Ukrainian president, is losing support, as he lied to electorate and the disappointment runs deep. Even though he has support from some tycoons, it may not be enough. Like Poroshenko, he is now catering to extreme right and left, the tail that keeps on wagging the Ukrainian foreign policy.
Russia can afford to watch this one evolve. Ukraine will eventually have to decide if it wants to prosper, or pursue the revolutionary glory. Follow in footsteps of its most famous revolutionary son, Trotsky — or come back down to earth.
While the region is getting reoriented to Eurasian outlook, Ukraine is to firmly stay tied to Europe and its economic decline.
Bill Clinton summed up Marx’s huge opus, Das Kapital in four words: It Is Economy Stupid.
Something Trotsky forgot in pursuit of his ideals, and Ukraine is about to make the same mistake.
All Ukraine has to do is look at its neighbor, Turkey. It is still a member of NATO, while firmly turning its geopolitical orientation to Eurasia. And Eurasia today is Russia-China space, with Central Asia firmly into its orbit. And Russia-China led Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Chinese Belt and Road, Russian Eurasian Economic Union, and multiple banks — are underwriting Turkey-Iran-Pakistan economies and security cooperation.
Revolutionary spirit will burn Ukraine from the inside. Europe will not be there to help.
I agree with all that you have written. However the city in which the agreement on entry to the Black Sea was held in 1936 was Montreux and not Montreaux.
The Montreux Convention also placed a limit on the size of a ship’s cannons hence on its ordnance allowed for entry into the Black Sea. Our Navy circumvents that limit today by claiming that the Montreux document is silent on rockets.
I agree. Being rather old, Montreux convention has problems with definitions.
But the spirit is the same — the less ships by non-littoral states, the better.
NATO goals are to bust the limits any which way possible — they are not exactly subtle.
In the end, there will be some wearing down, and resulting attrition. Looking just at the Black Sea players. Romania and Bulgaria are economically more interested in Chinese and Central and East European forum that is bringing projects to this neglected part of Europe. Europe gleaned benefits from the Iron Curtain falling. It picked best assets, introduced its banks, and just watched as their economies tanked. Thus, China investing in the region’s infrastructure, agriculture, mining — is highly welcome. Bulgaria let the Turk Stream (Russian gas) enter Europe and is already flowing to Serbia and beyond. The reason? Why make enemies out of Turkey and Russia — when the region needs gas? Thus, both not anxious to raise to the Trotskyite spirit of Ukraine. Looking at another US friendly state, Georgia. After China built railroad connecting its capital Tbilsi to Baku in Azerbaijan, and Kars in Turkey — there are serious misgivings there about putting all eggs in American basket. And after pro-Western leader in Armenia was beaten badly in war with Azerbaijan, sll the verbal assurances by Macron were useless. US Armenian diaspora — mostly credited by getting anti-Russian prime minister installed — could not get US to help. Lessons in the neighborhood — beware verbal encouragements from the West.
Lavrov said recently that EU apparently cannot talk to Russia
respectfully — and may be better for Russia to stop talking to them for
a while.
Russia needs revenues for its fossil fuels from the EU and will probably play along to the max, tag teaming with China as much as possible.
Two states bordering on the Black Sea are not members of NATO: Ukraine and Georgia. The overt entry of Ukraine into NATO resulted in Putin taking the Crimea. As one might have expected, Ukraine then became an ‘under the table’ NATO member.
Now the Secretary of State Blinken who speaks for President Biden has let it be known that “we” favor the entry of Georgia into NATO. That is an utterly dangerous and stupid policy.
And I do not think it will work. Georgia has been the beneficiary of Chinese investments, specifically Baku-Tbilsi-Kars railroad. A very significant connector to Asian trans-continental trade. The link is significant to Turkey as well.
Now that Russian tanks are in Azerbaijan enforcing peace deal, and Turkish-Russian base (peacekeeping center) is in place — the transit map may just be improved at Georgia’s expense.
Russia, in addition to guarding Nagorno-Karabakh, is building and guarding new connector between Armenia and NK, as well as guarding corridor across Armenian territory between Azerbaijan and its exclave, Nakhchivan. The significance of this corridor for Turkey is to have a direct link to Azerbaijan and open gas pipeline that would bypass Georgia.
Turkey is still sore when in 2008 Georgia shut down Baku-Tbilsi-Cehyen gas pipeline, as Georgia was unhappy that Turkey prohibited US navy to send unlimited number of warships during Georgia-Russia war.
Turkey was saved from a disaster by an old Soviet pipeline that sent gas to Russia to be rerouted by Blue Stream to Turkey. Needless to say, now that Armenia has lost all the Azeri lands it occupied — save NK — it stands to reason that Armenian corridor will be the preferred path for gas to Turkey.
Georgia may have to mend some fences in the neighborhood. Being keen on NATO would not be helpful.
Blinken is not just Russia hawk, he is Russia obsessed. The idea to get Georgia into NATO is a transparent one, it is to get a NATO member that will challenge Turkey in the region, to get back at both Russia and Turkey for getting Azerbaijan into their Eurasian orbit permanently.
Because if Georgia and Armenia turn eastward — Ukraine will remain isolated, and all mischief limited to its borders.
Neither of those countries are really good candidates for NATO. Does NATO really want to go to war with Russia over Georgia’s breakaway territories? Or over Russian Crimea? The absurdities and double standards are fascinating. South Ossetia and Abkhazia should have been given independence following Georgia’s secession from USSR.
Crimea Republic was administratively placed under Ukraine in 1953, and upon dissolution of USSR it had a legal referendum to chose. It chose returning to Russia — but Ukraine ignored it. Such illegalities were approved and encouraged in the West if it meant weakening Russia.
Tables turned in 2014, when the second referendum was held. This time, Russia acted to take Republic of Crimea back.
So the US Navy is bringing ICBMs closer to Russia than Cuba is to the US. How long does the Russia-China alliance tolerate these encroachments? Surely a tripwire exists. Maybe it’s time for Russia-China to install nuclear deterrents in Cuba and Venezuela.
Usually Russia-China don’t play the tit-for-tat game. Maybe that has to be modified.
I expect any time now that Ukraine will suffer what happened to Georgia when it listened to American hawks under Dubya/Cheney, and to Ukraine itself when it listened to American hawks in 1956, and to Czechoslovakia when it listened to them in 1967.
Russia would pay a price diplomatically, but it is already paying that price. Russia would however win instantly and massively, now as it did all those other times before when American hawks so ignorantly baited them into attacks.
This link from Russian analysis underscores huge imbalance in nato forces vs Russian -in a word, nato forces are pathetic(needs translation):
https://russtrat.ru/analytics/9-fevralya-2021-0010-293
The same issues are addressed in more depth here: NATO HQ: Ukraine to join NATO, build new naval bases in Azov, Black Sea
https://antibellum679354512.wordpress.com/2021/02/11/nato-hq-ukraine-to-join-nato-build-new-naval-bases-in-azov-black-sea/