The 2020 elections raised a lot of hope around the world that the Iran nuclear deal could be saved, and that Joe Biden would approach the process with the same openness the Obama Administration did, and would reverse the Trump-era abandonment of the deal.
Biden was short on comments after the inauguration, however, and that left many wondering where he actually stood. Details are starting to emerge and again are pointing to the US and Iran finding themselves in a stalemate even when a straightforward deal is to be had.
Iran has been very clear from the start that they want sanctions relief from the US, which the Obama deal promised them and which they never got. Trump not only left the deal rather than honor it, but then spent years undermining sanctions relief from anyone else.
The US is a little more coy about what they’d take, but they definitely want Iran to reverse all of its measures beyond the nuclear limits. Iran has said they’re willing to do so, but some Congressional Democrats have also said they expect Biden to pursue an even tougher deal.
Adding to the sense that the US wants “more” is French President Macron’s suggestion that Israel and Saudi Arabia should both be included in the talks. Iran is resisting that, and either way those nations would kill any meaningful diplomacy, as both opposed the deal in the first place, and putting them at the table gives them countless opportunities to sabotage the talks.
Biden may be trying to show his interest in doing all things for all people, but if Israel doesn’t want a deal, and they don’t, this is the most straightforward way to ensure that they’ll be able to block it.
Even if the deal is just to dial everything back to day 1 of the Obama deal, which seems like a potential settlement, the obstacles are emerging, as both the US and Iran agree that the other side has to go first.
There’ve got to be talks to reach the deal, and that’s where the conditions are coming in, with the US insisting Iran has to reverse all its nuclear measures back to limits as a condition for talks. Asked by CBS about the possibility of lifting the sanctions in order to convince Tehran to return to the negotiating table, Biden replied: “No.” Indeed Biden says they must “stop enriching uranium first,” and Iran saying that they need the sanctions relief before they reverse anything, making that a de facto condition of talks.
The problem, though, is both sides are rejecting the idea of going first. Iran’s not going to reverse its nuclear measures without the relief, and the US isn’t going to offer relief without the reversal coming first. So as it stands, neither side is getting what they want.
It isn’t that this marks the end of the process, of course. Both sides could come forward and agree to do both at the same time as part of the preconditions to talks. Indeed, if that happened they might find the talks to be unnecessary, as everyone already got roughly what they wanted.
Mistrust looms large on both sides, and that’s a potential killer. If neither side will go first, or go at the same time as one another, this may be the start of a long war of words in which nothing gets accomplished.
A very simple situation to understand – for normal people.
It was Trump/US who pulled out of the JCPOA, then put sanction after sanction on Iran.
The logical and fair route, is for the US to remove those sanctions and return to the JCPOA immediately.
That is the only way to move forward.
Iran is not the obstacle here, it is the US.
Biden is still sleep and will wake up on February 20th…!
Or perhaps this is governed by expectations of the soon-to-appear President Harris.
Biden owes the man who made him president by picking him as his VP: Obama. Return to JCPOA today without pre-conditions but with the immediate killing of all Trump-imposed sanctions. Every hour Biden waits he heaps more of Trump’s insults on Obama.
Trump did not get out of JCPOA because it was a bad agreement. He went out because it had been negotiated by Obama.
Yes, presidents are able to play politics this way, so easily, because their personal international agreements — treaties — for one reason aren’t in accord with the Constitution which they swore to uphold. “He shall have Power, by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties . ..”
1. Obama did the JCPOA on his own using “executive privilege” (which has no legal basis). It was done toward the end if his tenure to provide something positive, anything, for his presidential library exhibit after all his wars. He had an opportunity earlier in his presidency (2010) to do an Iran deal with Turkey and Brazil, after he said he wanted a deal, but back then Obama turned it down because Israel objected. In 2015 Israel no longer had any clout with Obama.
2. Also Obama knew he couldn’t involve the Senate as the Constitution requires because of you-know-who again. Congress-critters are bought and paid for by Israel which is anti-Iran.
3. Bush-43 also did a ‘personal treaty’ with Iraq, concerning the pull-out of US troops from Iraq in 2011. Obama tried somewhat weakly to get out of that, but Iraq would have nothing to do with it. So it happened and later Obama got blamed for it (as more fake news) when it was Bush who actually did it. More playing politics!
If Obama’s JCPOA was “illegal” why did/do the European trio agree to it and then renege on their part of the bargain.
Washington controls Europe, in large part because of the fabricated ‘Russia threat’ which feeds NATO, the Atlantic Council, US military occupation, etc. Europe’s sick economy results somewhat from US sanctions on Iran (and Russia).
So the expression: NATO was created to “keep the Soviet Union [now Russia] out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.”
“Also Obama knew he couldn’t involve the Senate as the Constitution requires because of you-know-who again.”
The Senate was involved and approved of the deal. It did so in 1945 when it ratified the UN Charter, binding the US to UN Security Council resolutions.
My point was that Obama probably would not get current Senate advice-and-consent on the JCPOA as required by the Constitution.
There is no deal to be made with a theocracy.
Ayatollah Khamenei doesn’t leave any doubt–
…and from the dusty files…
Khamenei, seven years ago–
I kind of feel sorry for the Iranian people who have no choice but to suffer under a self serving theocracy’s.
Yes, put Israel at the table. Make them bring their nukes — declare them, open them to inspection, and then dispose of them under that supervision. Quickly, in the next year.
Will the US, Russia, China,India,Pakistan,UK or France also be subject to this? I rather doubt it. Treat everyone the same.
Exactly. If you don’t play the game, you don’t get to make the rules.
Iran should abandon its nuclear program, sell its assets. It’s just not worth the trouble.
The US proposal is so preposterous one has to suppose there’s an unstated codicil/threat, a mafia type ‘deal’. And this could be the meaning of the B52’s.
Iran has no choice. If they allow themselves to be punked out by the US like this their citizens will loose all respect for their leadership and rightfully so. Trump violated a deal and killed thousands with sanctions. Would the US ever be expected to stand for such savage hypocrisy? No. Only the poorer countries must swallow their dignity with a gallon of blood. Biden’s masters know what they’re doing. They are sabotaging a peace deal.
Seems like a “super power” should be courageous enough to make the first move and display Some confidence, after all we have Iran surrounded and out gunned, they are no threat to us. Makes me wonder if Biden is under Trumps spell when it comes to the Middle East.
Under the spell of Israel and its American friends. And “spell” is pretty weak a word to describe the situation.
This discussion is pointless. Israel doesn’t want the US to lift its sanctions against Iran or permit the EU to trade with Iran and that’s that. End of story.