Questions about how US foreign policy is going to shake out between President Trump and President Biden have been the subject of a lot of speculation, and Afghanistan looks to be the first place this change will be addressed.
On Thursday, the Pentagon announced that the pullout date from Afghanistan is now uncertain, and would be entirely conditional on the Taliban meeting a series of commitments. Press Secretary John Kirby insists the Taliban failed to meet a number of commitments.
They didn’t address specific grievances, but from the February 29 deal, it would be fair for either the US or Taliban to say that some of the terms were not met as expected. In general, the US and Taliban have avoided major fighting with one another, and the US pullout is at least on schedule so far.
President Trump was long ahead of pace on the pullout from Afghanistan, but it may have been a mistake for him not to wrap things up before the inauguration, particularly when Biden’s intentions were so unclear.
As far as Biden’s position goes, it was so unclear that the Taliban started holding up the intra-Afghan talks specifically to see if there was still a peace to be negotiated. They are no doubt still wondering.
Biden is the final decision-maker, but the military is emphasizing that he’s “reviewing” the process, and if he’s getting military feedback that could be a bad sign. In 2017 the military talked Trump out of ending the war, and seems every bit as pessimistic about the process now. If Biden went in waiting for what the military brass says, it could very well be another reversal back into Afghanistan.
This far into the pullout, it seems like it would take a lot less effort to complete Trump’s deal than return to a state of war that the US clearly isn’t winning, and 20 years later is finally on the verge of climbing out of.
It isn’t, after all, as if the US is claiming victory in Afghanistan’s impossibly long war, or has plans for such a victory. A negotiated settlement was the best there was to be had, and dragging it on longer probably is just going to further delay the deal that was the best they could ever get.
In selling this as the Taliban not living up to the deal, it would raise questions about the many US airstrikes on Taliban targets since then, also clearly in violation of the deal. It may have been an imperfect rollout, but it was the best anyone could hope for at this point.
re: “They didn’t address specific grievances.”
…because there aren’t any. The Pentagon is making stuff up in an attempt to continue this forever war.
On Feb 29, 2020 the US and the Taliban signed an agreement with two main features: The US would pull out all troops in fourteen months in exchange for Taliban commitments to prevent Afghanistan from being a launchpad for terrorist attacks on the US and its allies. There were no stipulations regarding peace in Afghanistan.
The Taliban requirements are in Part Two of the Agreement here.
On January 28, Blinken called President Ashraf Ghani and “shared that the United States is reviewing the February 2020 US-Taliban agreement and whether the Taliban are living up to their commitments to cut ties with terrorist groups, to reduce violence in Afghanistan, and to engage in meaningful negotiations with the Afghan government and other stakeholders.” . .here
Those charges are baseless.
. . .text of agreement, Part Two, Taliban requirements:
In conjunction with the announcement of this agreement, the . . .Taliban will take the following steps to prevent any group or individual, including al-Qa’ida, from using the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the United States and its allies:
1. The . . . Taliban will not allow any of its members, other individuals or groups, including al-Qa’ida, to use the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the United States and its allies.
2. The . . .Taliban will send a clear message that those who pose a threat to the security of the United States and its allies have no place in Afghanistan. . .
3. The . . . Taliban will prevent any group or individual in Afghanistan from threatening the security of the United States and its allies. . .
4. The . . . Taliban is committed to deal with those seeking asylum or residence in Afghanistan . . . that such persons do not pose a threat to the security of the United States and its allies.
5. The . . . Taliban will not provide visas, passports, travel permits, or other legal documents to those who pose a threat to the security of the United States and its allies to enter Afghanistan.. . .here