In retaliation for yesterday’s missile strikes in Aden, Saudi Arabia hit at least 15 locations in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa, pounding the area with intense airstrikes. Exact casualty figures are still unclear, but damage in believed to be substantial.
Despite presenting this as a straightforward retaliation, the Houthis denied having anything to do with the Aden attacks, and while it was presumed to be them because it was missile strikes and they have missiles, there’s yet to be any evidence of who attacked Aden.
The Aden strikes on Wednesday killed 26 people at the airport, timed for the cabinet arriving there. The presumption was that this might be the Houthis, as they are opposed to the government. At the same time, there are plenty of other factions at odds with the government that would be liable to get involved as well, meaning what happened really hasn’t been sorted out.
Not that the Saudis would let uncertainty get in the way of hasty and heavy retaliation. This is a big part of why Saudi airstrikes have killed many thousands of Yemenis throughout this war, and why so many of the victims are civilian bystanders.
Wealth is such a wonderful goal.
Terrorist bombings from the air.
Saudi Arabia is dangerously split politically, ever since June 2017 palace coup. The reasons for the coup must be understood before any meaningful analysis is possible. Saudi Arabia is ruled by original Saudi clans. Clans decide key policies by consensus, they select Crown Prince, who will become a King. King harmonizes the differences among clans, and insures that policies conducted by Crown Prince, de facto head of the government are in keeping with the clan’s goals. Previous King established Allegiance Council to harmonize clan affairs and ease the burden in the King to settle all squabbles.
The first serious split occurred after previous Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Nayaf, was promoted to Crown Prince by removing a short ruling Mohsin. That left Council split. Mohammed Bin Nayaf was Washington man, ever since his days as Interior Minister, and his tight link with CIA and FBI. He was Western favorite, and the architect of many Wahhabi based Islamic militancy, especially Egypt, Iraq and Syria. He invested Kingdom’s treasure and reputation in coordinating with US on reshaping Middle East, away from secular governments towards Salafi Islamic rule. Among clans he had staunch supporters in those that had favored US business. But increasingly opposition among those that saw US losing popular support, even among Iran-bashing crowd. The coup gave King unprecedented power to appoint his son to Crown Prince job, and oust MBN. Fir those that pay attention to Saudi politics, the last year’s arrest of MBN for plotting coup, and pointing finger to CIA, tells that Saudi clans loyal to MBN and US primacy in Saudi affairs, have not given up,
They are the cheerleaders of accusing Crown Prince MBS of “being soft” on Iran.
Since Saudis have been severely tested after refinery bombing, but chose to not go to war with Iran — all that is left for American contingent among ruling classes, is the SAFE option, accusing rulers for being “soft on Iran”, every time something happens in Yemen. And safest thing to demonstrate toughness — is to pound Shia Yemen, so called Houthis. If course, “Houthis” are the inly real Yemen, Zaidi Yemen, over 1,000 year of continuous history. Aden and South “Yemen” were never called Yemen before unification of various sultanates during communist rule.
After Russian entry into Syria, and Iraqi government takeover of ISIS fight from US command, ISIS and other Islamic organizations started losing in all fronts. Russia and Turkey pushed ISIS literally into US and Kurd controlled areas. In Iraq, Mosul was surrounded, The catastrophe was compounded by Trump jumping in the bandwagon of ISIS slayers — he had to be on the winning side. Before him, Obama was merely “killing leaders” once in a while to show he was “doing something@.
But Trump wanted to take the victorious banner away from Russia, Turkey and Iraqi Shia militias — and impose post-ISIS settlement. Saudis were promised by US the lead role in the region once ISIS consolidates Iraqi-Syrian Sunni space. To have a state to divide permanently Syria and Iraq, in addition to giving Kurds their share if territory, cutting Turkey off from access to Gulf.
Fairy tale fueled by American fantasy crashed, MBN deposed, Kung took a 2000 strong delegation to Russia. Saudis increasingly depend on Asia for oil exports. And the new rebalancing has started.
Ever since US plays good cop- bad cop with Saudis, selling arms to make profit , but bashing new ruler with gusto.
So, what is US doing in Yemen? Why just not leave? Why still pretending that Houthis are Iran proxies? Because US wants an end game that will secure it proxy control over Arabian side of Bab Al Mandeb Straits. And with it — havea choke point controlling Saudis, Sudan and Egypt trade to Asia, and Asian trade to those countries, as well as Europe.
Since US cannot control Egypt and thus Suez Canal, controlling the other end of Red Sea has additional benefit of controlling Saudis, Sudan and Egypt trade with Asia.
But US holes are getting slimmer by the day. Saudi control over Aden and a deal with separatists South — may soon end the hope of getting a proxy. UAE were once favored, but ever since UAE withdrew in favor of Saudis, UAE became targets of blackmail and financial ruin. In that light must be seen deal with Israel and US.
Today, Saudi ruler cannot give an inch to the remnants of MBN support among clans. Cannot let them get advantage by claiming that MBS is “weak” on Iran proxy, Houthi.
And regardless of who pulled of the airport bombing — Houthis will be the designated whipping boy. US is the one NOT liking Saudi consolidation over Arabian stretch from Aden to Omani border.
Since US is pulling out of Somalia, looks like some consolidation of US ambitions is underway in strategic region.
Until US on one hand and Saudis, Sudan and Egypt in other hand, reach a deal in Bab Al Mandeb — Houthis will remain the unconquerable villains, to punish any time either side is aggrieved.