Over the weekend, heavy fighting was reported in the Syrian desert, with ISIS again going after troops in the area around Aleppo and Hama. The reports are that about 25 were killed, 15 from ISIS.
While there was fighting reported throughout the weekend, there was also a report of 70 Russian airstrikes in the area. This likely reflects ISIS’s growing interest in expanding out of the desert, and the focus on keeping them pinned down.
ISIS has been conducting a growing number of attacks, particularly in the deserts, as they try to inflict meaningful casualties on government forces. ISIS has been in the desert almost exclusively in recent years, and wants to reassert itself in more valuable parts of the nation.
Syrian troops have struggled in fights with ISIS directly, but heavy airstrikes are something they are unlikely to have an answer for.
Boring. Where in the “desert” are they hiding? What are they eating, where are they buying fuel, repairing cars, getting weapons, ammunition. Who is paying salaries?
One question can be answered — the “desert” is in the area controlled by US. It is right underneath US skirts that ISIS is hiding, supplied, and allowed to roam. This patch of sky is still patrolled by US from the air. Russian air force can only react once ISIS crosses over into government controlled territory, it cannot chase them into US controlled territory.
Why not allow Russian air force hit their camp? Why not allow Syrian forces advance into the territory they are hiding in? Not a Sherlock Holmes mystery.
Just GET OUT OF THE WAY. They would be finished in a week.
But no. Just the opposite. NDAA just passed contains hundreds.of millions for TRAINING and EQUIPPING “anti-ISIS” militants!
So where are these fighters to be found? No problem, there are plenty of paid help around for right price.
One thing we know for sure: no local population living in what is loosely US controlled area is clamoring for US help. Just the opposite — they are asking US to leave. So, these “train & equip” militants will be imported, or they will be remnants of SDF, Kurdish militants.
Kurds are causing problems, testing Turkey’s resolve in Turkish border, Ras Issa. Turkey is responding. There are Syrian bases there as well as Russian. These are calculated moves — SDF is trying to prove to Kurdish population that Damascus does not really care for Kurds — and will not protect them from Turkey.
It is however a ploy that will backfire. Kurdish population supported US in hope that US will help them get an autonomy— leading up to statehood. They learned the lesson, as Damascus and Russia negotiated with Turkey to protect large majority Kurdish population centers. Are they going to risk it again? Or remain safe with Damascus protection. Since Kurd militants cannot take over their population centers — isolated attacks on Turkey are reckless, and Syrian forces not reacting will be seen as respecting deal with Turkey.
Either way — a more aggressive US stance is visible. ISIS shielded by US is testing Syrian defenses , SDF Kurds supported by US are testing the deal with Turkey, Damascus and Russia.
With the sanctions against Turkey and Russia written into NDAA — there is no leeway for President.
However, anticipated more aggressive US posture in Middle East has already caused some counter intuitive reactions.
Saudi Arabia reaching out to Turkey and Qatar is telling. They are betting on what appears to be US target. Sudan — again in a move that defies logic, signed 20 year lease of Port Sudan facility on Red Sea for servicing Russian navy.
Deal includes transport of military personnel and weapons through other Sudan airports and ports.
With Turkey and Russia now being militarily present in Azerbaijan — it is very clear that the entire US and EU plans for Southern Energy Corridor has been put under Russia-Turkey control. From Azerbaijan, South Caucasus pipeline across Georgia to Turkey is connecting through Georgia to Turkey TANP (Trans-Anatolian) and connected via Greece to TAP (Trans-Adriatic Pipeline), via Albania to Italy. Additionally, Turk Steam is coming from Russia directly to Turkey under Black Sea, with some gas already going to Bulgaria. Europe is resisting Turk Stream — as it will supply Balkans to Hungary and Austria. Not because it will circumvent Ukraine — but because it will undermine Israeli gas supplies from “East Mediterranean “ to Greece, and on to Hungary and Austria.
Armenia will have a major decision to make — in order to get protection for Nagorno-Karabakh, it will have to fulfill the agreement on allowing corridor across its territory from Azerbaijan to Azerbaijan exclave bordering to Iran and Turkey. And the key item to watch there is — pipeline across the corridor. to Turkey.
This will take US allied Georgia out of controlling the passage of Azeri gas to Turkey.
In 2008 Georgia-Russia war, Georgia retaliated to Turkish adherence to Montreaux Convention that gives Turkey power to enforce limits on non-littoral navies access to Black Sea. US was thus unable to come to Georgia’s aid.
What happened then? Azerbaijan revealed that it had still functioning former Soviet gas connections to Russia — and Russia supplied it through then functioning Blue Stream pipeline across Black Sea. It was a wake up call to Turkey and Russia. All connections to Turkey from Azerbaijan go through Georgia. This is why additional pipeline , Turk Stream was built.
And this is why the real danger to the entire EU/US Southern Energy Corridor has materialized by Russian-Turkey presence in Azerbaijan, weakening Armenia’s position, and opening prospect of avoiding Georgian power to control segment of pipeline.
It is not S-400 that bothers US — after all Greece has S-300 for a while now. It is the change of trans-Caucasus geopolitics, and control of energy delivery.
Why is Saudi Arabia betting on Turkey? Why is Saudi ally, Sudan, betting on Russia’s presence in Red Sea?
Biden has many challenges awaiting. Where will be his priorities? We will find out soon.
Damn, you’re good!