Tensions are once again soaring on the Syria-Turkey border, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now declaring he has “legitimate reason” to re-invade northern Syria, and that such an option could happen “at any moment.”
This would be the latest of several invasions, and countless threats of invasions in recent years, and comes after a Russian airstrike targeted Turkish-backed rebels earlier this week. That’s part of the escalation of tone, but not being used to justify the invasion.
Instead, Erdogan is back to complaining about Kurds along the border, saying he’d been promised they’d be removed, and that they still haven’t been, and that that justifies Turkey going in and removing them themselves.
Kurds are considered a top priority for Turkey. Northern Syria is predominantly Kurdish, as is southeastern Turkey, and while Turkey can crack down on Turkish Kurds at their leisure, they want a presence of allied rebels, or whatnot, to get at those Syrian Kurds.
The US, and later Russia, have both given lip service to Turkish security needs, but in the grand scheme of things, expelling the Kurds outright is impractical. That’s why Turkey’s invasions never involve huge anti-Kurd measures when they get there.
Tying the matter to Russia’s airstrikes, Erdogan is demanding Russia follow through and remove the Kurds, or else. The Russia-Turkey truce in Idlib has been collapsing for months, and this may be Erdogan trying to start new negotiations, or it may be him trying to save face for the collapse itself.
The Syrian Kurds have broadly aligned with the Syrian government, which is aligned with Russia, so it’s unlikely Russia will do anything to force them to relocate. Rather, they’re more likely to warn Turkey to stay out.
Erdogan wants to kill some stateless kurds to be the strongman again. The international Community is always silent when the turkish regime bombs kurds.
Why do not Kurds get more attention for their plight?
Sad to say it, world is a cruel place, and unless you are useful to someone in the era of empires — you are of no interest. And if you are — only as useful as a disposable tissue.
Having said that —all people in this position must first decide what exactly they want. What is the goal of a community with its distinct culture, language and traditions that does not want to become extinct?
There are realistic goals and then there are dreams. Realistic goals must be implemented, while dreaming of some imperial power gifting you your state — should be avoided. Such hopes have created disasters and setbacks.
Kurds in Turkey have pursued armed secessionism for decades. Clearly, arms and funding comes from a sponsor (s). But what are sponsor’s aims? It was and remains to control Turkey through endless internal strife. This is how the sponsors use secessionism in order to control the political energy, curtail the development of a country, limit its educational and scientific potential, and cause large emigration of young without perspective. Secession minded minorities are merely a tool.
In Syria, Iraq and Iran — similar processes, but different outcomes.
In Syria, if Kurds feel that American empire would produce an independent state — such hopes are already dashed.
But in order to gat desired outcome by cooperating with Damascus, it does not pay to blackmail Syria that has just managed to survive — while Kurds collaborated with the enemy.
So then, what are realistic goals? Secession in today’s climate is not. But cultural, economic and technological collaboration among Kurds across four countries is not just achievable but necessary.
Avoiding to to be a tool in the hands of those whose only goal is to use you in order to hurt your country — should be primary goal.
Development of infrastructure and economic integration not just among Kurds but within wider region is a realistic MUST.
Repeating the cycles of cozying up to imperial powers, just to be used and discarded is always dead end. This is why today just about everybody is aligned against Kurds in Syria. Cozying up to Turkish PKK was guaranteed to bring in Turkey into Syrian conflict. What was hoped to accomplish? That US was going to leverage ISIS and bring in Kurds to replace ISIS rule over non-Kurdish towns and villages?
That was folly — assuming Turkey was just going to take that. And Damascus — never mind official protestations — is relieved by Turkish actions. And the folly continues, and will continue until last glimmer of hope exists.
Now, the bet is that Biden will come to the rescue. All that will happen is further loss of trust with Damascus.
Biden has a decision to make: to fight to give Kurds in Syria their state — or to fight Russia and China? And as the economy is cratering at home, he may have to rethink all of his goals.
This is a bit of a mess of a text.
The group in question is NOT under Turkish control. Look it up, The group has FLIRTED with Turkish alliance, but it DID NOT accept the terms. Those groups that accepted Turkish terms no longer have their leadership. And after bombing — it is a “president” of Idlib that complained about Russia’s bombing. In Idlib, HTS — US/UK outfit that controls what is left if Idlib. HTS is trying to PREVENT Syrian groups from deserting to Turkey. In fact US just attacked the deserters.
Turkey has military positioned that will prevent HTS from trying to push refugees to Turkey — and get Western media “outraged”.
What did people expect to happen when Turkey abandoned two checkpoints? Of course, following Russian bombing — expect SAA to move in further.
As for Kurds.. Not caught in what is going on?
Kurds have tactically accepted deal with Assad — and Turkey and Russia are patrolling segments of the border.
But since US is still supporting Kurds — lately Kurds have bern unhappy that Damascus is not promising them autonomy. It does take a cake — SAA and Russia stepped in, securing Kurdish areas such as Kobane. This actually stopped Turkish offensive past the three critical border towns,
But now, Kurds are back demanding autonomy. Even though constitutional committee has not yet made any decisions.
Bottom line — for groups that played games with Turkey, Turkey is turning them over to Russia and SAA. For Kurds that are spurring Damascus and Russian protection — they are welcome to face Turkish incursion.
Turkey is nice to militants in Idlib — to a point iit accommodated their need for protection. Provided they surrender to Turkey, take uniforms, and accept new commanders.
Russia and Damascus are nice to Kurds — to a point they accommodated their concerns, provided they accept Damascus rule.
It is good that both issues are getting attention.
Are you the hijab girl on charlie hebdo’s new cartoon? Your filthy sultan is the chief jihadi, you turkish islamist online knights cant fool anyone.
Your passion for Kurds is palpable.
But to insult people because you do not like their analysis — is gutter behavior. Refrain from it.
of the 12% not controlled in Syria by Syrian govt this is divided among Turkey/HTS, al qaeda and SDF/CIA Kurds
In 1999, Erdogan came to the brink of invading Syria and then made the same deal with Assad, at the expense of the Kurds. That is what he has wanted all along; what he got he wants to keep.
You are right, except on what Erdogan wants to keep. He will not keep anything. The last thing he wants to do is to incorporate more Kurds within Turkey’s borders. He is only interested in Syria being se to control all of its territory and borders. Kurds were supported by US to liberate places from ISIS and then KEEP those places even though Kurds were a fraction of population. The last straw was “liberation” of Manbij — where Kurds remained until forced to leave. There were THREE operations Turkey conducted in Syria. First — liberating border region of Jarabulus from ISIS, then proceeding to liberate a corridor and ISIS occupied Al-Bab. The battle for Al-Bab was the most decisive battle against ISIS in Syria, as well as against attempts by US and Kurds to connect Kobane Kurds from Afrin Kurds.
Once this plan was undermined — and Turkish Army connected to SAA on the other side of All-Bab, ISIS withdrew to Raqqa. Democrats were pushing Kurdish independence cause in Syria,
But they lost race for Al-Bab, and then Hillary lost elections.
Now, they are hoping for Biden win. But Turkey is already being vigilant, monitoring Kurdish moves. At the same time, Turkey pulled two checkpoints in Idlib, clearly giving green light to Russia’s to attack HTS allied group.
Your writing sounds intellectual only at first sight, yet quite quick and easy the propaganda touch becomes apparent.
“There were THREE operations Turkey conducted in Syria. First — liberating border region of Jarabulus from ISIS, then proceeding to liberate a corridor and ISIS occupied Al-Bab.”
You can’t ‘liberate’ a) what is not yours and b) if the results of that ‘liberation’ are same dramatic for the population(s) as if oppressors sit there. Turkey freely was air-bombing simply civil targets plus heritage sites; it was bombing genocide-endangered minorities and keeps on doing so, putting pressure on neighbouring countries only to satisfy its blood-thirst.
There is no heroism in such, only coward opportunism – like roaches entering a bathroom when it’s dark.
kurds will ally w any imperialist invader–racists that have always collaborated in genocides. Russia, Syrian, Iran have reduced turk influence in Syria to less than 10% of the territory. Turkey has been surrounded and had to abandoned 2 “observation posts” in Idlib in the past 2 weeks. Should they attempt any military aggression they will be further humiliated
Turkey abandoned the checkpoints to remove protection from group that collaborated with HTS while collecting pay from Turkey. You can always tell easily the difference. Whenever a group is mentioned by name — it means that it rejected surrender to Turkey. Once within Turkish army control they no linger have group name, do not stay in same units, get uniforms and Turkish command. Turkey allows for a transition/negotiation period. But does not accept such groups collaborate with HTS.
By removing checkpoints, Turkey has thrown them overboard. Russian airstrikes are the message to groups — flirt with HTS, and you lose protection.
US has also sent messages. Every time a group abandons HTS, US bombs them. HTS “arrests” their leaders, or US sends drones to execute them. This has happened RECENTLY and writers always miss the essential point — group or groups splitting with HTS. It is always missed that Turkey does not keep intact units under their group name. To join Turkey, they have to abandon group loyalty, and become soldiers.
So, when Russia recently bombed a group, its name denotes that it failed to accept terms of integration.
The commentariat has been terribly slow to understand HTS. They may have renamed since Aleppo days — but remained what they are. Western sponsored and financed group with White Helmets being the “legitimate” recipient of money and supplies. With money — they bought Syrian militant groups, gave them incentive to stay as a group, pay commanders well to prevent soldiers and their families to cross over to Turkey. These groups are West last hope to make demands that Idlib should be legitimately represented in constitutional committee. They even have a “president”, another make-believe “opposition”. HTS, the Al-Qaeda, has bern banned in Turkey. Stories that it is Turkey supporting them — are disinformation, or just plain guessing.
It does appear that HTS cannot keep groups, and resorts to punishing defectors, But without being abke to mount any credible military action to break from the ever decreasing area — shows that they are hunkering down.
Waiting for UK/US to get them political foothold.
But since US and UK have been making demands in Geneva in their behalf — all that happened was delay in Constitutional Committee work.