A US-brokered ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh quickly fell apart, with fresh fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenian forces reported on Monday. The US-mediated truce was the third attempt to cool the clashes in the disputed enclave.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said the ceasefire broke down within hours. “It’s clear that, once again it wasn’t possible to maintain the ceasefire,” Pashinyan wrote on Facebook on Monday. “We don’t yet know how the US president will react to the failure.”
The ceasefire was announced by the US State Department in a joint statement with Armenia and Azerbaijan. The truce was set to begin on Monday at 8 am local time in Nagorno-Karabakh. Both sides accused the other of violating the ceasefire almost immediately after it was to take effect.
The truces were meant for humanitarian purposes so that the warring sides could exchange prisoners and the bodies of those killed in the clashes. The ceasefires were also meant to foster more substantive talks moderated by the US, France, and Russia, who co-chair the Minsk Group, which was formed in 1992 to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has called on Armenia to withdraw all forces from areas within Azerbaijan’s internationally recognized borders. On Monday, in a televised address, Aliyev reiterated his stance and said Azerbaijan would “carry on to the end” until Armenia announces it will withdraw. Aliyev also said he ordered his military to observe the truce.
The Azeri leader warned that Baku’s ally Turkey was standing by with F-16s and is ready to intervene on Azerbaijan’s behalf if the country is threatened. “Our Turkish brothers kept them here to show us moral support,” he said. “If there’s an aggression against us from abroad, they’ll face the F-16s.”
Aliyev took a shot at the US, France, and Russia in his address. “For almost 30 years, the Minsk Group co-chairs have tried to reconcile Azerbaijan with the process of freezing the conflict, but we have created a new reality,” he said. “We are fed up with these negotiations. How long can you negotiate?”
Over 1,000 people have been reported killed since the clashes began on September 27th, the fiercest fighting over the disputed enclave since 1994. Nagorno-Karabakh has reported 974 of its servicemen killed, and 41 civilians. Azerbaijan has yet to disclose military casualties but has reported 65 Azeri civilians killed and 297 wounded.
The US does not want peace, it wants allies for war on Iran.
The US does not care in the slightest about the causes that excite Azeris or Armenians. It only uses that in ways that are transparently manipulative and unproductive.
The attack by Azerbaijan would not of happened unless the rules based order signed off on it. ie NATO is again the aggressor. Azerbaijan now realises the foolishness of going along with them. Azerbaijan clearly went to negotiate a peace deal in Russia to end the war they started as they now realise it will not be a quick victory. This is the way out for them and Turkey has been sidelined hence Erdogan’s tantrums.
The world now clearly understand who Trump/Erdogan are, who NATO is and who the rules based order is. The rules based order is global terrorism. These acts of aggression by Azerbaijan et al are what the ICC calls the Supreme International Crime. These are war crimes but again the guilty will not be held to account because the rules based order is lawlessness.
The enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh held a referendum in 1991 where the people chose independence from Azerbaijan and self-declared the Republic of Artsakh. Artsakh includes Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding districts which accounted for about 30% of Azerbaijan.
Joseph Stalin decided to make the Nagorno-Karabakh region an autonomous oblast of Soviet Azerbaijan. After the dissolution of the USSR the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh held a referendum where the people chose independence from Azerbaijan and self-declared the Republic of Artsakh.
Armenia has supported Artsakh both militarily and economically because it is populated by an Armenian majority and because of the UN principle of self-determination. The only interest for the Azerbaijanis is the integrity of their territory hence the need to ethnically cleanse the area of its Armenian population.
A replay of the same people convincing Georgia it was a good idea to attack the Russian Army.
A replay of the same people convincing their followers that Orange Revolution 2.0 would go without any challenge from Russia because Russia could have learned nothing from the first time.
Except that the Orange is in Armenia. Current Prime Minister before being elected led protests to Russian base, and vowed to reduce Russian influence. There are US advisors from Georgia in Yerevan.
Clearly, Pashinyan is asking what will US President do — not asking Russia to activate CSTO defense mechanism to come to Armenia defense. He cannot do that — as Russia a d CSTO will take over command — and Yerevan would have to give up American advisors. That will not happen until Yerevan has no choice and US does nothing to rescue it.
In Washington Post, the predictable piece of neocon advice is to go ballistic—no fly zone no less!
The little dirty secret is — the six regions formerly inhabited by Azerbaijan — have been depopulated by Armenia and held for thirty years.
What the attached map does not show is the extent of Azerbaijan’s territory gains in the south, and after thirty years managed to control its entire Iranian border. From that position, it can create a big problem to Armenia by cutting off the main supply line to NK.
So far, Armenia proper has not been attacked — all battles are over six regions. But Armenia has attacked Azeri town of Ganja , close to major pipeline from Azerbaijan, across Georgia to Turkey.
However, if Azerbaijan decides to attack Armenia along Iranian border, it will secure connection to its exclave.
The problem for Armenia is — the spread of defense lines. It has to protect NK from any incursion, it has to protect against breaking the land connection from Stepanokert to Armenia. It cannot protect at the same time its northern and southern extremes.
And apparently, drone war has decimated tanks and other military assets on the ground.
It is clear that Azerbaijan has no incentive to stop until it has advantage and return if its regions after thirty years is very popular home. Aliev has decimated his opposition, mostly pro-western options.
I would say that without Russian wink this would not be happening.
Armenian new leadership could continue as they wish, but will soon have to make serious decisions about prosecution of the war, and what it can defend.
With elections under way — it will be hard to expect US to get involved.
After elections — even if Trump does win — he will have to weigh the consequences of meddling into Caucasus region. In order to save Armenia, he would have to go against Azerbaijan and Turkey. And against Russia as well.
Russia wants the two sides to come to a negotiated settlement. And Armenia — unless it is confident in American help — will have to rely on Russia to pull it out of the difficult situation.
I am afraid that most commentariat is assuming that Turkey is acting in NATO behalf and Armenia a Russian ally. Wish it were this simple.
Armenia should withdraw and pursue a diplomatic solution with the US and Russia as moderators.