The Turkish military has begun withdrawing from the Morek observation post in Idlib, Syria. They set up the post in 2018 and have reinforced it, ruling out ever abandoning it. Officials now say it has no military value and that they are dismantling the base.
This was one of 12 posts which were meant to support Syrian rebels in Idlib. Though Turkey isn’t saying so, this may reflect the rebel weakness in the area, and al-Qaeda’s dominance in Idlib.
Some Turkish officials are reporting that four observation posts and two military sites in Idlib will be going. The sites are said to be inconvenient to defend, and of little use to the rebels.
The Turkish military has denied the withdrawal from the positions, but other officials are confirming it. Some are blaming Russia, saying they are making it harder to get reinforcements to the posts, which after rebel losses are deep in government territory.
Sultan Erdogan is just going to reposition those Ottoman posts in Nagorno Karabakh after expelling the Armenian population.
Erdogan will certainly use of those head choppers by moving them to a new home front.
Do you know what happens to a group that agrees to accept Turkish command? They essentially surrender. Commanding individuals are assigned to different units than soldiers. They all wear special uniforms and are assigned to Turkish command,
These people — unlike other groups that accepted Russian reconciliation deals and stayed home — are too notorious to get back without being arrested. They are essentially looking for opportunity to get a paying job, and to emigrate.
You will remember at the beginning of the conflict, Islamists from Libya were moved into Syria. Some will opt to go back under Turkey’s command.
The reason some groups are not willing to surrender to Turkey is the unwillingness of warlords to give up their control — unless they have too.
And if West supported HTS is paralyzed— unable to move against SAA — that would make groups hesitant to remain as HRS cannon fodder.
Idlib is indeed the swamp that is gradually being drained.
This reflects government strength, not al-Qaeda strength. “the posts, which after rebel losses are deep in government territory”
The government has always been the main target of al Qaeda, and for that reason al Qaeda in Syria has always been an ally of Israel and helped by the US.
US propaganda out of the State Dept and its media megaphones have consistently misled the American public about the role of the contestants in Syria.
It is results that count — not words. The area had Turkish checkpoints, the gateways for groups that left HTS to dissolve and incorporate under Turkish command. With no groups, SAA takes over, making checkpoints unnecessary. In fact, their presence slowed down SAA from moving forward.
In fact, in the last few weeks we heard of US targeting some leaders, “arresting” — kidnapping — some. What we saw was punishing those that sat in the fence — not dissolving as Turkey requires — nor being loyal to HTS either. Just taking advantage of checkpoints to allow warlords to stay in charge.
But the game is up — checkpoints will be gone. It will be decision time. My bet is, they will surrender to Turkey. If they stay with HTS, they will be the front line for HTS.
Core HTS is not Syrian. Whoever they are — they are receiving help from UK and US (funding for White Helmets, who are permanently with HTS.
Now the front has reopened. The window for groups surrender is up,
I am assuming an action. Either HRS will try to break out — or SAA will move first.
Let us see if US/UK media goes into frenzy — when SAA moves against
HTS. In the past that is what usually happened.
But the energy may not be there.
US government is reaching out to Assad government. Gulf states opening embassies in Damascus, another avenue for behind the
scene talks,
With Armenian gamble in a precarious position — and Turkey a serious spoiler — wonder what the next move will be by a seriously endangered candidate Trump.
With domestic conflicts heating up — I do not expect bold moves. Reckless, may be, but bold and purposeful— no.