Fresh off of Russia and China vetoing a Western proposal on Syrian aid Friday, the UN Security Council have passed a resolution over the weekend revising the terms to avoid a veto, and allowing the first deliveries to reenter the country.
With aid coming from Turkey into northern Syria, which is to say into territory held by Turkish-backed rebels, there was a keen interest in the West to have two crossings. Russia vetoed this to limit Turkey’s options to smuggle arms across the border.
Russia got what they wanted, and the revised resolution allows only a single border crossing into Aleppo. The crossing is being used without a secondary crossing in Idlib, though Idlib and Aleppo do connect so shipments can go back and forth, even more easily with the government controlling the key highway.
For its part, the US has allowed this alternative resolution to go into effect, despite saying the two crossing plan was a “red line” for them. No one vetoed the second UN vote, though Russia and China did abstain.
How elegant. No more mention of Northern crossings at Tell Abyad to Kurds. Subject closed.
And the one Russia proposed to remain open, was drafted in a way Russia, Syria and Turkey want — using Government controlled M5 and the intersecting M4 which cuts Idlib East-West, and is controlled by Turkish-Russian patrol.
Given how much Idlib is contested and how much media space and money West invested into “protecting people” from Syrian and Russian efforts to liberate then from Al-Qaeda, one would think that by NOW we actually understand Idlib.
In the article only Turkish controlled rebells are mentioned — as if the WHOLE Idlib is controlled by Turkish rebels. If this is the case — no problem would exist. Turkish controlled rebels are all along entire Turkish border — no problems or questions with supplies. Turkey supplies them with all necessities, pays their salaries, provides arms and military command. All those former rebels no longer have their militia commanders, but have one uniform, and Turkish appointed commanders. And all those areas participate in Constitutional Committee.
Let’s look at Idlib. A constantly shifting micro-borders exist between HTS (Al-Qaeda) and growing territory under Turkish controlled rebels. And who are these Turkish controlled rebels? Those are groups formerly conquered by HTS when they fled into Idlib. Until Turkey entered Idllib — sealed border to prevent HTS causing refugee crisis — NO militants were under Turkish control.
AFTER Turkey entered, many groups opted to take Turkish protection. But HTS managed to hold onto part of territory. They are losing militants — as there is no food and arms smuggling cut off. HTS was and is still primarily UK outfit, financed legally through device called White Helmets. They have a serious problem today. Population never trusted HTS but relied in them for food distribution, and militants for salaries, weapons and transport.
Today, they have money but shipments of food and smuggling of arms has been severely constrained. Turkey has no problem supplying population in area of its control — and militants are under Turkish military control and supplies.
So, the ONE UN border crossing from Turkey Russia has always offered to authorize was through Turkish controlled part of Aleppo province, as it then enters Syrian controlled M5 that skirts Turkish controlled Idllib which intersects with M4 — the highway HTS controlled Idlib can be supplied from. It is controlled by Turkish-Russian forces.
So, it is a win! Entry through M5 and M4, neither controlled by US/UK friendly forces. It was a face saving device — and two highways declared two entries. A win. Yea!
The reality must dawn on US and UK that Idlub will be taken without fight. HTS leaders and Helmets will skank off by helicopters one day.
This aid delivery m, while UN controlled, will not — as is always the case with UN — include smuggled weapons, as neither Turkey nor Russia will ket the trucks pass without inspection of cargo and truck undercarriage.
And the message to remaining militant groups under HTS control is — West cannot resupply you, and you will have food thanks to Turkey.
This UN decision is an ultimate Phyrric victory. The optics of victory, but capitulation to reality.
It will be interesting to see how many militant group commanders bolt and seek Turkish protection.
Even though — US is known to target such leaders and target them. As it happened recently when US targeted “Al-Qaeda”, killing the defecting group leaders, and HTS imprisoning others.
HTS area is shrinking. Hard to say how much it controls today.