Under the US peace deal with the Taliban, the US was to get troop levels in Afghanistan down to 8,600 by mid-July. Drawdowns have been ahead of schedule, and by last week, officials announced they’d already reached 8,600.
That’s not the end of it, and reports are that President Trump has finalized a plan to withdraw another 4,000 or so US troops from the country, with the goal of getting things down to 4,500 remaining by autumn. This would be the lowest US troop level in Afghanistan since the 2001 invasion and occupation.
The State Department had long said cuts below 8,600 would be conditions-based, and it wasn’t expected there would be more drawdowns so soon. President Trump was interested in a drawdown for the sake of the election, and probably will emphasize this cuts in the campaign.
Depending on election strategy, this might mean that the troops lefts after this will probably be staying at least until the vote, since it allows the administration to argue that they hadn’t “rushed” to leave Afghanistan but are still drawing down at an impressive rate, as circumstances allow.
ONE remaining is one too many. And what about Xe, the CIA, and all the other mercenaries that are there protecting the CIA poppy fields, heroin production facilities, and those propping up the puppet of the day?
The foot in the door policy, I call it. As long there’s a few, many can be on the way in a flash. Still, I can’t imagine Biden doing this and I’m pretty sure the NYT hatchet job was arranged as a pre-emptive strike by chickenhawks who were displeased with any capitulation to sanity, no matter how fleeting.
4.5K US troops + contractors and mercenaries are left to protect the CIA poppy fields and the heroin production facilities.
“Reduce” means redeploy somewhere else.
Better than stay and still deploy others somewhere else.
Below certain number of foreign troops allows societal factions to come to terms about internal governance and trade/investment policies. So, the longer the period of free decision -making, the more permanent the results.
Afghanistan’s entire trade orientation will be out of necessity with Central Asia, China, Pakistan and Iran. US will push India to get involved commercially — but it the prospect is poor. This is not India’s region of interest in the least.
The more I see of India’s strategic push (as opposed to noise), the more it looks like deliberately acting as a protector and champion of religions snd ethnicities that have been antagonized or abused by Moslem countries or communities. Its citizenship law gives a hint of that — giving automatic regulation of citizenship to refugee Christians and other non-Moslems from Pakistan or other countries currently in India. Eventually, countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh or Indonesia are going to take a stronger role in supporting embattled Moslem communities. The habit of Western mediation and interventions due to prosecuted x, y, z communities will lose regional toehold.
Afghanistan, however, will have a very narrow window for consolidation of internal governance.
After elections — any excuse good enough to increase troops.
Looks good. Rah! Rah! Should not have been there in the first place.
That’s some good news. A lot can happen between now and autumn, though.
The CIA and Pentagon will be reluctant to let go of Afghan opium fields they manage and guard for European distributers.
I would be more excited if Trump was more consistent. But in the past the talk of troop reduction has been followed up with things like him talking about how he could kill 10 million Afghans if he really wanted. Keeping troops there until the election might appease some war hawks “since it allows the administration to argue that they hadn’t rushed to leave Afghanistan” but it also allows for an easy escalation if Trump changes his mind yet once again if something sets him off. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Half-measures appear to be the modus operandi regarding Afghanistan and South Korea troop withdrawals. The message to voters is that–half-measures– in addition to perceptions that those countries will always be occupied by US forces.
Another message being conveyed is they’re not coming home, but are being sent to a new war theater awaiting the requisite casus belli or false flag spark.