While some are hoping that warring parties use the global outbreak of coronavirus as an excuse to stop fighting and rethink things, some analysts are concerned that the instability is going to mean extremist groups will see something to take advantage of.
International relations specialist Bertrand Badie called it a “godsend” for such groups, and predicted “the revenge of the weak over the strong” in the weeks to come. As the virus spreads around, this attitude could spread to more countries.
For extremist groups, the global panic over the pandemic is just a multiplier for terrorist groups. Civilians are less resilient to high-profile attacks if they are already terrified over other issues, and terrorists can more easily provoke desperation in those already desperate.
On the other hand, some groups are taking this as an opportunity for peace. The Philippines ordered a halt to their offensive against Communist rebels, a major fight spanning decades which may be getting a rare break. Elsewhere in Idlib, fighting has been on the decline.
In Afghanistan, the Taliban have had their first contact with the government, via Skype, and have ordered their fighters to protect healthcare workers during the crisis as a way to make things better, not worse.
With the Taliban eye on being part of a future government, they have mo0re interest in helping with the crisis. This may hold true for other large insurgencies that are almost certainly not going to disappear, and may take this opportunity to build goodwill.
The US is now dialing back its exercises in Europe. They have also offered help to nations like North Korea and Iran, offering rare signs of positive engagement that could be built upon in the future as peace-building.
Which isn’t to say that the US is disengaging in any major way. Elsewhere in the world, US forces don’t seem to be dialing back involvements in war, but are looking to change how they fight to limit exposure of the troops.
This may represent the US still coming to grips with major global changes, and letting momentum drive overseas engagements. As more opportunities for peace and diplomacy present themselves, however, there is still plenty of time to change tactics.
This may not even be a question of want, but need. As the cost of coping with the pandemic grows, so will the US budget deficit, and America may no longer be able to afford these huge wars. Deficit spending may be a growing struggle, with traditional lenders like China not necessarily having the money to lend.
“and America may no longer be able to afford these huge wars.”
We already couldn’t afford them. But, your point is well taken, that perhaps soon it will simply be financially impossible to wage them.
A total reset of the US economy is already happening. It remains to be seen how the president and the Congress will respond. Will it be to bail out the big corporations and banks and continue to make health care unavailable for millions, socialism for the richest .001%? Or, will we finally find our moral compass, bring the troops home to build new hospitals and medical facilities, and provide adequate health care for people like yourself? I’m hopeful it will be the latter.
“I’m hopeful it will be the lat[t]er.”
It is always possible that our politicians will suddenly experience an epiphany and not give in to greed, but I am not holding my breath.
Fixed that misspelling. Thanks. This will certainly be a defining moment for the USA. The whole world is watching. I’m hopeful that local communities can band together to meet the challenges that are now before them. No doubt it’s going to be Rube Goldberg style response…
While I’ve read about Rube Goldberg machines, this one definitely takes the cake.
Local communities are coming together. In Washington Metro Area, Virginia, Maryland and DC have sent letters to Pence pleading for testing kits, as they believe in science and the need to do aggressive surveillance of the progression of the epidemic through community spreading. When clusters are identified they have a chance to focus resources. Arlington County and INOVA hospital organized testing sites for Arlington residents. Doctors from anywhere in the area can refer an Arlington resident with symptoms by fax. Local governments and Keiser provider are setting up testing centers in metro area for Keiser members with symptoms. Locals are organizing for food deliveries. I am trying to keep up with local events, and WAMU.org is the best source of what is happening in the region.
Very happy to see all heads of Health Departments making sure that testing of people with symptoms and those exposed to confirmed case are tested. As clusters have emerged in Northern Virginia and Eastern shore areas of Norfolk and Virginia Beach, focus is there.
A strange anomaly is Alexandria where testing is not available according to doctors who are referring patients in vain. Department of Health is desperate, as doctors are contacting them.
This may just be the case of some political coalition of science deniers, hoping it blows away. It does not have much hospital beds so people will go to Arlington and Fairfax.
No, I actually do not know what is the problem — it is just strange to hear reports from Alexandria, where just one doctor referred over 300 patients, and 0 were tested, including one that came from the SAME Nile tour that brought first cases of Covid-19 to Virginia.
COVID-19 is a hybrid hoax. Real virus, greatly, vastly exaggerated danger.
Thousands have already died this year of cold and influenza, but no-one is breathlessly tallying spread and casualty rates of either.
Worse, we can catch both COVID-19 and influenza; there’s a whole untapped mass of COVID-19 ‘victims’ waiting to add to the alt-news, MSM hysteria.
COVID-19 exists in its own entitled plane of awareness.
The various proposals already contain about 50% corporate bailouts. There are also provisions for direct payments to individuals. While I don’t believe such payments will actually help people in the long run, because nobody is working and producing anything, so the checks will soon be worthless, it doesn’t make any sense at all to give $700 billion in bailouts to corporations and banks. But, our fearless leaders know exactly who pays for their campaigns, so they will reward them lavishly.
Direct payments to individuals are URGENTLY needed as millions found themselves suddenly without income. We need to stop deceiving ourselves that some unemployment compensation bureaucracy will suddenly become efficient and pay out urgently to hungry people. Who has enough savings to last a week or two in gig industry, in precarious contracting services? Who?
But democrats are democrats. Instead of giving 1,000 per adult, they are angling for being defenders of families — 3,000 per mythical AVERAGE family of four. All that means is that a person may not see more then 500 dollars, and “families”, depending on how they file, will seldom see 3,000 prize.
They are d i s g u i s t i n g. Pockets will be lined, and then some. A bonanza for the powerful and well connected.
But they better pay attention to expected 2.5 million unemployed and soon to be unemployed. Hunger and reason are not compatible.
“Direct payments to individuals are URGENTLY needed as millions found themselves suddenly without income.”
And if such payments distort the economy sufficiently to put 50% of the country out of work, how does that help? Money is not wealth, it is just a medium of exchange. If there is no wealth produced to back it up, money is worthless. The lockdown on the economy and efforts by the state to interfere with what is left of our liberties, will kill 100 times as many people as the virus. I agree it makes more sense to subsidize individual people than to subsidize corporations, but, in the long run such payments cause more economic hardship than they alleviate. Also, keep in mind that it is politically impossible to give payments to individuals without giving bailouts to corporations, because of the legalized bribery of lobbying. Once the plunder mechanism is in place, it is purchased by the rich and powerful, and they are its primary beneficiaries, who, as you say, “line their pockets.”
How would it distort the economy? Does not millions people suddenly not being paid distort economy? Aside from just being a common sense to take care of people in emergencies — it is simply leveling somewhat the income disruption.
American economy is consumer economy, and for this reason alone, it is rather urgent to insure that some income is coming in — it may buy a few weeks worth of groceries.
Because, its still free money not connected to any direct production and distribution of wealth. And, where will this money come from? A loan from the Fed.
Giving that money directly to individuals is a better idea than giving it to the banks, but who believes that would happen? It is guaranteed not all will benefit, especially not those who need it most.
A tax holiday for all who earned under 100,000 in 2019 makes more sense, because at least that money was earned.
Capitalist democracies make budgets borrowed from their national bank – their Fed. There is no direct reliance on the taxpayer.
“Hunger and reason are not compatible.”
Indeed, we could be seeing total societal breakdown within months.
Not necessarily; the Deep State is still fully operational and knows what really happened.
Not all would be on side with destroying their own country.
If the progressive left truly believes that, they’ve been suckered.
All that happened was that the rich became richer and the poor became poorer. We’ve seen this all before.
The solution was always a democratic, political one, not one borne of crisis. Those positioned to benefit from this crisis, will not let it go to waste.
When times were good, reformers like Bernie gained power and things like Fed and market accountability gain traction. Now, all people are concerned with is their own survival.
Capitalism, is not the enemy. Its a tool for economic development and wealth distribution. Taming the few super rich psychopaths and middlemen who game the system requires a strong economy to support political awareness and courage to act.
It’s not only “extremist” groups that are the danger. The pandemic is already deepening the divisions between Washington and Beijing. The coronavirus could further threaten world peace but the pattern towards war is already there.
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
While very true, the question is the one of relative strength. For a while now US projected strength far and wide. Projected strength militarily, not by winning anything, but by making impossible for others to dislodge it. Projected strength economically by its long stick market rally.
Now, the strength is called into question. Coronavirus revealed all the arrogance of the Emperor with no clothes. Retrenching will be necessary. With nothing to offer, except bellicose behavior not many will be impressed with US advice or power. US will not start a war as it has no allies willing to waste their money.
As for terrorists, local thugs will surely thrive, but crime will be up in US as well. Larger scale terrorism will not happen as most of those were supported by us and our allies.
China? All that will happen is unwillingness to smile while we shove
S—- in their face.
“US will not start a war as it has no allies willing to waste their money.”
While I would like to think you are correct, it is possible our leaders, with society crashing around them, will simply feel they have nothing to lose and therefore pull the trigger.
A good optimistic article.
I don’t fear COVID-19; my immune system will just grow stronger if exposed. I also could die, or receive permanent injury, but have long understood the rare dangers of influenza or a cold. Mortality sometimes sucks and one can only hope the end is quick and life had meaning.
The social cytokine storm generating around pandemic panic, that should be something to fear, more than any cold or flu-like illness. It could kill a way of life in North America and the West, that while far from an exemplar of liberty, compassion and justice, is not the sociopathic psychopathic monster of a medical police state salivating in wait to replace it.
…. Also I don’t see China willingly lending money to a delinquent spender like the U.S. government. This would have to be part of a Phase II trade/extortion agreement.
The U.S. deficit was already mind-numbingly meaningless numbers. The crash in the tax base probably won’t faze Congress. The loss in real wealth by an enforced economic slowdown, means serious inflation potentially on the way, though.
U.S. spending was supported not just by the domestic economy, which had to be expanding or at least stable. Being part of every nation’s foreign exchange as the reserve currency of choice, as all critical commodities were priced in U.S. petrodollars, was what multiplied U.S. dollar power.
This power was multiplied even more by an expanding global economy, now entering sharp contraction, taking with it the prosperity of U.S. dollar-holding nations. So, not only is the U.S. dollar tapping into smaller GDPS all round. Foreign nations also need buy less in U.S. dollars, reducing demand for the U.S. economy’s greatest export, the dollar itself.
Baseless pandemic panic kills more than just victims of a virus. Panic kills society. We’ve been deliberately pushed into a socio-economic cytokine storm.
China is already recovering. Their main concern is imported cases. Too many insiders want all of the West but especially the U.S.A. to go the way of Hubei and Wuhan. Locked down, panicked, and dying for MSM theatre.China locked down Hubei because the government severely mismanaged a cold outbreak. While restrictions were imposed elsewhere, Hubei is a shining example of why extreme lockdowns don’t work. So is Northern Italy.
Where are the influenza numbers? Thousands have died already and influenza must be everywhere. Net not a peep from the CDC, alt-news or MSM media.
Up to 4000 people a year can die of the common cold rhinovirus in the U.S. alone. Where are the breathless numbers tallying infections and deaths? None to be found.
Where are the combination numbers? We can get both influenza and coronaviruses at once.
Not even RT and its catchphrase of “Question more” seems to be asking the critical intelligent questions. That’s how deep this panic movement goes; even Russia is afraid to question more.
Americans, well they do ask questions. People of the West ask questions. The only thing claimed to be feared is God. And even God is questioned in the name of divine justice.
COVID-19 is a hybrid hoax, more dangerous as a pretext to stage a social cytokine storm to kill liberty in free countries, than any inherent biological threat it poses. Leaving only the freedom to do ill and answer to tyranny.
Temperature and vax papers, citizen?
“one can only hope the end is quick and life had meaning.”
Yes, I think all of us will be reassessing our lives, trying to discern whether the things which were important to us were valid concerns or not, trying to figure out which things we did were for good, and which thing were for ill.
What peace when the US continues to rule the world.
Many things will be reexamined in post-Corona world.
“Many things will be reexamined in post-Corona world.”
Yes, hopefully some good decisions will be made, but, if history is any indication, the same wrong choices made in the past will be repeated.
Which country would you prefer in that role?
“Which country would you prefer in that role?”
None. Any attempt to rule others is immoral. And if it’s our own country trying to do the ruling, we’ve failed as citizens.
Do you realize how utterly naive you are?
“And if it’s our own country trying to do the ruling, we’ve failed as citizens”
Give me a historical example where citizens prevented that happening.
None!
Never happen.
There will always be one, always has.
How come Jason never comments on his articles?
Isn’t the article just the first comment ?
No – that’s the article – not the comment.
but i understand your meaning.
Some authors like discussing their articles in comments, some don’t. Apparently Jason is among those who don’t.
People I know in defense industries are continuing to go to work.
Those same warmongering entities know the American populace is uninformed and ignorant of geopolitics. They could simply stage some small “terrorist” attack, blame the North Korean – Russian – ISIS – Taliban – Hezbollah – Mexican drug cartel axis of evil alliance, and the population will forget their health and economic priorities and cheer on a march into WW3.
Budget deficits, petrodollars, reserve currencies, etc are essentially meaningless terms to the masses and won’t hit home until inflation kicks in an prices skyrocket…
Everything is pointing to Washington and their lackeys in the MSM to exploit this crisis for economic and political gains for the 1%. Even ABC news right now has an article saying white supremacists are trying to infect cops and Jews, with no specific groups named. It’s just so much propaganda to divide the people further. The USA is trillions of dollars in debt and running a deficit due to these wars. Obviously with no money, only a government can further keep wars going with no money.
The group I saw mentioned in stories on that from yesterday was something called “Atomwaffen.”