An estimated 35 US troops in Europe have symptoms of coronavirus, but with the pandemic tearing rapidly across the continent, and US troops being kept in some potentially dangerous crowded conditions, officials are looking at a “worst case” scenario for Europe.
Gen. Tod Wolters concedes the situation could deteriorate rapidly, and says the worst-case scenario could mean US troops are in so much trouble they would need to seek outside help from Europe in treating the number of sick
Wolters says that the virus hasn’t impacted readiness yet, but seems to concede that this could easily happen. Despite this, there is no sign that the US is considering any changes to posture in Europe, and they’re just going to keep going until something bad happens, then react to that.
This is particularly concerning because this same tactic seems to be common across US deployments internationally, and in many cases they are seemingly ripe for catching the pandemic to a level they aren’t able to manage.
One would think controlling the spread in the military wouldn’t be that hard – just lock down the base, no one in or out, with procedures in place to handle logistical supply deliveries in a controlled and sanitary manner.. It’s not like soldiers are going to readily disobey a lockdown order like civilians can.
Being housed in barracks raises the risk, but only if people are coming and going into riskier environments.
Isolation of the infected is also likely more efficient in a base environment.
It’s failure to do *anything* logical that will bring problems. So naturally that’s what the military will do. It’s S.O.P.: when in doubt, do something stupid.
Nothing makes any sense. The ONLY place NYC handled properly is New Rochelle. All contacts with infected person were tested, and the place was put into a lockdown to stop the spread of virus.
Everywhere else, testing was done only if criteria met. Like being exposed directly to a confirmed CIVID-19 case.
Now, testing has stopped. Drive thru a flop — did not have enough kits, so no test.
Now even worse —- ONLY TESTING HOSPITALIZED PATIENTS.
I know MANY people who have been exposed to a nurse who tested positive. She is not in any kind of quarantine, all the people she was in close contact with are going out shopping, banking. Nobody will take care of their needs — so for as long as they can move, they will have to shop for necessities, and spread the virus.
Is it incompetence, ignorance or on-purpose?
Whatever it is, this barbarism with human face marches on.
Indeed. Trump needs to authorize the Defense Production Act so critical supplies such as test kits, N95 masks (for those who have the disease – we’re going to need at least a few million more), nose swabs in the millions from somewhere other than Italy, and everything else – especially ventilators and ECMO machines – can be rushed into production as fast as industry can ramp up.
Without massive testing – not just of hospitalized patients or symptomatic patients – the resources can’t be directed where they are needed most and the resources to track down those who were in contact with the infected but who are asymptomatic themselves can’t be allocated efficiently.
We need maybe ten million, twenty million test kits ASAP just to deal with the states already heavily infected. Iran shot itself in the foot when it sent 300,000 to China early on.
As of 1:30 this morning, up to almost 27,000 cases – meaning a quarter of a million – and Washington State up to 94 deaths. New York state is in big trouble, too.
Meanwhile, San Francisco has *exempted* the homeless from the shelter in place order, merely “urging” them to seek shelter (where? The city doesn’t have enough “official” shelters), and “urges” the city to provide more shelters – without as far as I know committing any money to that. This city is really going to pay for that mistake. I don’t care if they have to set up a tent city in Golden Gate Park with the National Guard providing food, johns, security and medical testing, they need to do it. But I suppose the real estate crowd here in this town figures this is as good a way as any to get rid of the homeless. Given that most of the homeless are probably immune-compromised, the virus will tear through even the younger of them and kill quite a few – while exposing everyone else who has to be out of doors to higher risk.
“As of 1:30 this morning, up to almost 27,000 cases”
No, as of 1:30 this morning, up to almost 27,000 confirmed cases.
The consensus of infectious disease researchers as of March 16-18th was that there are about eight times as many actual cases as confirmed cases, so we’re probably north of 200,000 cases now.
Yes, I’m quite aware of that, I just didn’t bother to say “confirmed” this time, although I usually do. I agree that 200,000 is more likely. Also, the 8 times figure could be low as well, or high – we can’t be certain.
As of 1:51 PM, we’re up to 32,640 confirmed cases. So I’d guess closer to 300,000 “true” cases.
We’re probably doubling in cases, true and confirmed, every two or three days. I’m not bothering to track that precisely, that’s just an impression of the last four or five days or so, since I’ve been watching the tracker.
I’d be surprised if there were fewer than one million cases in the US as of January 21, 2020.
I wouldn’t be TERRIBLY surprised if we’re at less than 10 million cases now, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s more, either.
While it’s clear the US is behind the 8-ball on testing to determine how far the spread is, my guess is we’re at less than one million now, and almost certainly less then 10 million. But that could change rapidly once the testing does ramp up (if it does). So you could be right about either figure.
The US has apparently only tested around 160,000 people, with is *far* less than should be the case by this point, considering that the US was informed of this virus the same time most of Asia was.
Since the disease is well into community spread and there’s no prospect whatsoever of containing it, emphasis should be on treatment of the symptomatic, not testing so that we can feel better about numbers.
“there’s no prospect whatsoever of containing it,”
Based on what? You make a lot of assertions with zero evidence presented.
Let’s just say no one agrees with you on that concept.
Based on the fact that it has been in the US for at least three months, spreading without any containment measures at all being taken for two months and minimal containment measures until a week or so ago. You may have already had it without even noticing it.
Anyone notice we aren’t getting a breathless play-by-play on how influenza is spreading and killing this year?
Or the rhinovirus?
Have you considered that’s because this virus is more dangerous?
Another person who wants to dismiss this as all a hoax…
More people will die from the government enforced overreaction than the virus itself.
Those deaths won’t be be breathlessly tallied either.
Which is convenient for you since you won’t have to show any evidence for the claim.
True evidence for your claims is also lacking – a realistic comparison with the ongoing cold and flu threats.
The COVID-19 death stats also don’t mention how many died because they lacked money to continue treatment or were abandoned to their fate because of age and insufficient public health capacity – which had been cut back for years despite the aging population.
Does it have anything to do with there being cures and remedies for those while there are none for covid-19?
Given the casualty rates for URI’s with cures and remedies, I’d definitely like to know more.
Most people survive COVID-19 without even hospitalization.
Many cases have likely gone unreported since the victim figured it was just a cold. Even if suspicious of what they had, if there was no reason to, they’d want to avoid joining the COVID-19 circus.
Interesting stats from NY. Majority of hospitalized (56%) are 18-59. In Germany it is similar, Italy is a different case. The population density is high, reaction was slow — and Italians love to avoid doing what told by officials. Once overwhelmed, it became just a race to house very sick and burry the dead.
China has sent planeloads of medical supplies, testing kits and labs, and Chinese doctors have arrived. Same in France and Spain. Even small Serbia got supplies and doctors.
Many principles are tested — specially European solidarity. No medical supplies were allowed to be exported, leaving some import dependent in a big trouble.
I am wondering if this is part of our problem —- are we importing medical supplies and found ourselves in a lurch? Globalist minded elite would not want to admit such problem exists.
“I am wondering if this is part of our problem —- are we importing medical supplies and found ourselves in a lurch?”
We’re importing medical supplies — but not enough of them to last through extended emergencies in which idiotic or murderous politicians interfere with production and trade.
My proposal to get the situation under control ASAP is that all elected and appointed political officials in the US be quarantined incommunicado for 90 days.
Wholeheartedly agree. If we do not have capacity to produce such basic medical supplies, we are import dependent. And how can one convince importer to risk his money on emergency preparedness.
As for politicians, get them quarantined or send on vacation.
“how can one convince importer to risk his money on emergency preparedness.”
Market importers don’t have to be convinced that stockpiling non-perishables that are useful in an emergency is good business. Neither do their customers. If for no other reason than that buying in bulk allows lower prices to be negotiated.
One would think so, but it has not happened. Cannot say really what is the problem here in US, and why are they so freaked out over masks and gloves.
But for some European countries it is a serious problem. Countries of EU prohibited exporting medical equipment and supplies — causing wide spread shortages in some countries. They have complex trade quotas to insure more balanced trade. Basically, a country A will not buy too much goods of one type from country B, unless country B buys an equivalent value of some other goods.
Ceiling is set for various goods and countries, importers/exporters fight for the piece of the predetermined pie. When disruptions occur — it is hard to adjust. Those that produce simply shut off exports.
And this freezing of import-export quotas caused real hardship in some countries.
We may have also some trade agreements that get in the way when dealing with emergency.
“One would think so, but it has not happened. Cannot say really what is the problem here in US”
Yes, we can. The problems are state restrictions on trade, state taxation of inventories, state regulation of institutions, etc.
The problem is the state.
“My proposal to get the situation under control ASAP is that all elected and appointed political officials in the US be quarantined incommunicado for 90 days.”
That would help with a lot of our other “situations” as well.
Italy had been cutting back on medical capacity for years to save money, despite an aging population.
Even without COVID-19 panic, there was decreasing capability to contain a bad flu season.
Same for the rest of Europe and the West. This potential for disaster had been building for some time.
“Is it incompetence, ignorance or on-purpose?”
You left out a fourth possibility: Good luck.
Since the disease is well into community spread and was well before there was any possibility of containing it, large scale testing is a waste of resources that costs lives.
Disagree. Large scale testing is needed to determine where to focus resources, as well as identify everyone who is infected and everyone they’ve been in contact with.
There is a triad of methods needed: 1) full lockdown; 2) large-scale testing, and 3) tracking of the infecteds’ contacts.
This is how China got control, and how the other Asian countries got control – because they went through SARS and MERS previously. It’s the West that was wholly unprepared this time.
If by “Asian countries” you mean “South Korea,” then no, “full lockdown” wasn’t part of it. The government did not forcibly close restaurants, etc.
What “the west” wasn’t prepared for was its politicians immediately rushing to appease full-blown Millennial-style “ALL THAT MATTERS IS MY FEELZ!” panic.
By Asian countries I meant most of the main ones: Singapore, Vietnam, etc. Also note, most of those countries have at least a history of being authoritarian in terms of their control of their populations. South Korea is perhaps less so, at least under recent administrations.
This article describes the South Korea response:
South Korea’s coronavirus response is the opposite of China and Italy – and it’s working
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3075164/south-koreas-coronavirus-response-opposite-china-and
Note that they did a major effort on infected tracking, including sending emails to everyone in a neighborhood where an infected visited a restaurant.
The other major remediation effort was the wide-scale testing, as I suggested.
This quote from another article indicates it may not be over yet:
Quote:
South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people, which amounts to more than 5200 tests per million inhabitants—more than any other country except tiny Bahrain, according to the Worldometer website. The United States has so far carried out 74 tests per 1 million inhabitants, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show.
South Korea’s experience shows that “diagnostic capacity at scale is key to epidemic control,” says Raina MacIntyre, an emerging infectious disease scholar at the University of New South Wales, Sydney.
“Contact tracing is also very influential in epidemic control, as is case isolation,” she says.
Yet whether the success will hold is unclear. New case numbers are declining largely because the herculean effort to investigate a massive cluster of more than 5000 cases—60% of the nation’s total—linked to the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, a secretive, messianic megachurch, is
winding down. But because of that effort, “We have not looked hard in other parts of Korea,” says Oh Myoung-Don, an infectious disease specialist at Seoul National University.
New clusters are now appearing. Since last week, authorities have reported many new infections, including 129 linked to a Seoul call
center. “This could be the initiation of community spread,” through Seoul and its surrounding Gyeonggi province, Kim says. The region is home to 23 million people.
End quote
So in fact, South Korea’s non-implementation of a lock down may come back to haunt them.
As for the rest of your comment, total BS. Trump spent most of his time downplaying the problem until the medical profession dumped on him. It has nothing to do with “millenial appeasement.”
COVID-19 was just another cold until panic set in.
Being tossed out of a job and into poverty added rocket fuel to the fever.
The elite and elite brown-noser response has been plain cowardly and entitled.
Nope. Good luck falls into on-purpose category. Incompetence and ignorance born out of arrogance are just subcategories.
From day one we should have paid attention to bureaucratic language. “We democracies do it differently”, a first clue. Then conferences on pandemics, then Big Mouth Johnson practically advertising the intent. Let it rip, pretend you do testing by “criteria”, then claim resources limit. No testing kits, gloves, masks.
Do they want a hug?
I am in no mood for the stupidity that resulted in a blind as a bat health care system, panicking in the dark, pretending that is a good plan.
Being way behind on testing is NO EXCUSE — we are condemning still healthy people to misery of the disease and possible death.
My own son has been exposed to a friend who is a nurse and tested positive. There is no testing of people who are exposed, depriving them of early treatment, and the safety of others depends on people not spreading the disease -/ while they themselves must attend to their obligations. And the nurse has a disabled mother that nobody will take into a nursing home, since the daughter is positive. She is already desperately il, and depend on others to help. This is New York for you, the result of the policy of Herd Immunity. Let us face it — the elite and their ideological fantasies are the danger to our health.
“I am in no mood for the stupidity that resulted in a blind as a bat health care system, panicking in the dark, pretending that is a good plan.”
Neither am I.
But that stupidity is an inevitable result of letting the state have any control whatsoever over medicine or medical issues.
Aldo, what exactly is being saved? How are lives save by not testing? Taking tests is a job for technicians and actual processing technology should be at least as advanced as the one in China, South Korea or Japan. So, it is about gloves and masks? Somebody should be charged for criminal negligence — this one was coming — everybody knew it.
How is China capable to use technology to model hit spots from actual tested cases to define areas to be be put in a bubble? Ir South Korea?
The moronic head of WHO just apes whatever our geese in the fog officials hint — you do not have to test everyone, to give them license to test no one.
I agree they gave population middle finger — and good luck.
But they are not saving any lives — except their bureaucratic hide. They are resigned now to warehousing severely ill. Early intervention with a better chance of recovery is not an option now for vast majority of people with no strings to pull.
Interesting article from March 18, on the situation in San FranciscO – not good, my friend.
A View From The Front Lines Of California’s COVID-19 Battlehttps://californiahealthline.org/news/a-view-from-the-frontlines-of-californias-covid-19-battle/
Quote:
Until a few days ago, UCSF had to rely on the San Francisco Department
of Public Health for coronavirus testing, and a shortage of test kits
meant clinicians could test only the most critically ill. The situation
improved March 9, when the university started running tests created in
its own lab. First, there were 40 tests a day. By Tuesday, there were 60
to 80. But a new shortage looms: The hospital has just 500 testing swabs left.
End Quote
And this is bad:
Blomkalns worries about staffing shortages as health care workers are
inevitably exposed to the virus. As of Tuesday, one doctor in the
Stanford ER had tested positive. At UCSF, six health care providers had.
Another article’s headline points out that millions of people live in counties with *no* ICU facilities…
Threat inflation that leads to big budgets is allowed. Threat inflation about downers like a global pandemic not so much
GO HOME YANKS! Stop the simulated attack on Russia, take all your NATO expensive and destructive equipment home and use your skills to help your fellow citizens fight the COVID-19 invasion .Nobody is threatening the USA. Be a real defense and stay home like the rest of us have to.
Readiness for what? In case they haven’t figured it out yet, the Blitzkrieg or shock and awe are obsolete.
The U.S. really should pull back from hot zones heavily reliant on logistical support. Afghanistan comes to mind. Syria and Iraq as well.
If the military isn’t pulling out….
Well, they’ve probably noticed no-one is keeping a breathless count of influenza spread and death rates.
Or rhinovirus spread and death rates.
We don’t even know how the other coronaviruses are doing.
Shouldn’t US Troops Prepare for ‘Worst-Case’ Scenario in the US?
Europe can take care of themselves.