Yemen’s Shi’ite Houthi movement has reported on Tuesday that they have taken control of nearly the entire Jawf Province, a northern province bordering Saudi Arabia. This is one of the biggest gains reported by the Houthis in months.
Controlling more of the border is always useful, but indications are that this is just the start of a broader push, with the Houthis seeking to turn south into Maarib Province. That province is where Yemen’s valuable, albeit limited oil and gas industries are located.
Tuesday already saw some very heavy fighting in Maarib, with 38 reported killed. Both sides claimed to have the advantage there, but as with most central Yemen provinces it tends to be very stalemated, and fighting is probably going to continue to rage there.
This suggests a large push by the Houthis concentrated on valuable territory. It’s not clear why, but this might represent a desire to have more territory in hand when peace talks advance, giving them a better bargaining position. The Saudis have been trying to get the talks going, but Yemen’s Saudi-backed government has resisted anything short of total victory.
Maarib was part of former North Yemen, and is Shia. Saudi backed Hadi forces tried to hold it. UAE with US supplied American mercenaries contested it. Whether by agreement or not former North is trying to restore territory. North needs return of Hodeidah and coast down past Mocha. The way it us shaping (for now) — Aden may be given up by Southern separatists, to be “independent” under Saudi control. Southern separatists must agree on form if governance as there are several former sultanates to be considered . Capital may shift to Mukkala, capital of former Sultanate of Hadhramouth. If Saudi Arabia gets mire control over Southern Sultanates it may give them Aden.
I still do not know what US wants — and whatever it wants is the cause of delay. Or US just hates MBS enough to stall. But US forces are presumably moving to Socotra Island, where UAE forces are. This may be a consolation prize — as Bab Al Mandeb is in its sights.
Indeed, the Lord of Mercy and Compassion works in mysterious ways. Alhamdullilha!
The Saudi nightmare is a Houthi move the other way, across the border into Saudi Arabia.
The Saudi people who live on top of the oil are Shiite, not Sunni, and they are severely repressed. The jihadi Wahhabi crazies of Saudi Arabia live on as the “solution” to that Shiite danger, which also explains the gut level antagonism to Iran (and Iraq, with which they’ve never made peace despite the US).
The Houthi know this, and have already made moves to strike across that border.
Yemen may be desperately poor compared to Saudi Arabia, and smaller in square kilometers area, but it has a bigger population, and those people are really angry, with much reason to be angry.
The Houthis give me hope in humanity. It’s in short supply these days.
Personally I far prefer the South Yemen independence movement, but the Houthis come second. A distant second, but they’re there.
North and South Yemen never should have been cobbled together. I’ve always hoped for an alliance between the Houthis and the SYIM. That would be game over for the Saudis.
Something I have been hoping for for years: the Houthis and al Hirak, neither of whom can stand the Saudi Barbarians, form an alliance in return for independence for South Yemen.
What is “Yemen’s Saudi backed government”? What is this creature? Who does it represent? Not South Yemenis: they’re represented by the secessionist al Hirak movement to restore the independent state of South Yemen, and were instrumental in kicking the Houthi invaders out of Aden. Not North Yemrnis: if anyone represents them it’s the Houthis. The so called “leader” of the so called “government” of Yemen, Hadi, is a de facto prisoner in Saudi Barbaria. So who does this “government” represent?