After massive Turkish attacks on Syrian forces in Idlib Province, Turkey’s President Erdogan and Russia’s President Putin will meet Thursday in Moscow in a very high-profile summit with big consequences for the Syrian War.
Turkey and Russia made repeated deals in the past over Idlib Province, and Russia approves of Syria recovering the territory from al-Qaeda. Turkey has a big problem with Syria recovering the territory from al-Qaeda, and has been vowing to expel Syria militarily from that province and some nearby areas.
As a practical matter, Syria can overrun al-Qaeda’s forces with relative ease at this point, but not if Turkey invades. Turkey, on the other hand, believes it can overrun north Syria with little resistance, but that’s only true if Russia stays out of it.
These two nations have major differences in their vision of future Syria, and the summit aims to reconcile them in some mutually agreeable way. If the talks go poorly, as other recent talks have, it risks Turkey and Russia fighting directly.
“but not if Turkey invades”
That ship sailed quite some time ago.
It hasnt been easy. Lol
I bet the Russian military brass is chomping at the bit to lay the smack down on Turkey, but that Putin will roll over DESPITE having a defense treaty with Syria for decades. I hope I’m wrong, but that’s my prediction based on his behavior in recent years.
I think you are wrong about Putin. I think he has more backbone than Trump and he will call Turkey’s bluff. I hope for the world that he does
Someone – Putin, of course – needs to work out a deal where Syria gets Syria, but Erdogan can look like a winner at the same time. “Syria has given us guarantees for the safety of the Turkmen….”
Russia does not want outright war with Turkey, that would be disastrous. Look at that southern Russian border. They already have a hostile Ukraine, they do not want a hostile Turkey. Which controls the Strait. Plus, they have trade. And both are sanctioned by Washington – they should be working together.
Erdogan wants the trade with Russia, selling vegetables for one thing. They want Russian tourists. The economy is already weak, Erdogan can’t get away with a war with Russia. And again, they should be working together.
Time and again we see how insane it was for Erdogan to support Idlib for electoral purposes. Tying himself to al-Qaeda. Shihtty Turk youths post constant hate on Twitter against Partisangirl, who reports about Syria, but how is he gonna win elections with those? Turks have economic troubles now. Erdogan’s only hope was a quick defense that would make Syria back down, but it’s clear Syria is not going to back down. How many Turkish bodybags is this worth? For many Turks, it’s worth none. They get absolutely nothing out of fighting for Idlib.
My prediction is that Putin will escalate if Erdogan doesn’t back down and stop supporting Al Qaeda in Idlib. Putin will lay this out for Erdogan in the meeting today. Then we’ll see whether Erdogan is as dumb as Trump.
It’s possible that Erdogan has been told by Pompeo that the US (and possibly NATO despite the EU’s reluctance) will support him in his land grab regardless of other US statements saying the US won’t. The US neocons will be telling him that so that Turkey will escalate, which will force Russia to escalate.
From the neocon/Trump viewpoint, one of two things will happen. Either Russia backs down – which they will consider a win – or Russia will escalate against Turkey, which will enable the US to condemn Russia again and give the US an excuse to escalate – which they will consider a win. And if Trump doesn’t directly support Turkey, and Russia escalates and defeats Turkey inside Syria, they will consider that a win in terms of punishing Erdogan for buying Russian S-400 systems.
This is probably what Erdogan will tell Putin. Putin will tell Erdogan that he is not scared of the US and that if Erdogan doesn’t back down, Putin will use the full force of the Russian military against Turkish troops inside Syria. But Putin will also offer Erdogan some sort of concession if he does stop escalating.
That’s only common sense for any negotiation. A good negotiation ends when both parties have gained a little and lost a little. So the question remains: how stupid is Erdogan and will he continue to push Putin past the point of no return?
Russia & Turkey agree on de-escalation in Idlib, Syria, after Putin-Erdogan talks in Moscow
https://www.rt.com/news/482432-putin-erdogan-moscow-meeting-idlib/
Well, there it is. It’s basically the same deal Turkey and Russia agreed to in the first place. So my question is: does Putin really believe Erdogan will adhere to this deal? Or does he believe it because he read the riot act to Erdogan and told Erdogan he has no choice but to agree or face the Russian military?
Impasse
“Russian and Turkish troops will also be carrying out joint patrol missions along Idlib’s M-4 highway.”
Excellent. That’s a pretty strong guarantee, I’d say. And they know it can work because they have been practicing in the north-east.